Wed. Dec 25th, 2024

1 June 2022

Today, the European Commission has concluded that Croatia is ready to adopt the euro on 1 January 2023, bringing the number of euro area Member States to twenty.

The conclusion is set out in the 2022 Convergence Report, which assesses the progress that Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden have made towards joining the euro area. These are the seven non-euro area Member States that are legally committed to adopting the euro. The Report concludes that:

  • Only Croatia and Sweden meet the price stability criterion.
  • All Member States fulfil the criterion on public finances, except Romania which is the only Member State subject to an excessive deficit procedure.
  • Bulgaria and Croatia are the two Member States fulfilling the exchange rate criterion.
  • Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia and Sweden fulfil the long-term interest rate criterion.

The Report finds that Croatia fulfils the four nominal convergence criteria and its legislation is fully compatible with the requirements of the Treaty and the Statute of the European System of Central Banks/ECB.

The Commission’s assessment is complemented by the European Central Bank’s (ECB) own Convergence Report, which has also been published today.

Croatia’s adoption of the euro

In light of the Commission’s assessment, and taking into account the additional factors relevant for economic integration and convergence, including balance of payments developments and integration of product, labour and financial markets, the Commission considers that Croatia fulfils the conditions for the adoption of the euro. It has therefore also adopted proposals for a Council Decision and a Council Regulation on euro introduction in Croatia.

The Council will make the final decisions on Croatia’s euro adoption in the first half of July, after discussions in the Eurogroup and in the European Council, and after the European Parliament and the ECB have given their opinions.

The Report, therefore, marks a crucial and historic step on Croatia’s journey towards adopting the euro.

Overall assessment of preparedness

In all of the non-euro area Member States examined except Croatia, the Report also finds that national legislation in the monetary field is not fully compatible with EMU legislation and with the Statute of the European System of Central Banks/ECB.

The Commission also examined additional factors referred to in the Treaty that should be taken into account in the assessment of the sustainability of convergence. This analysis shows that the Member States examined are generally well integrated economically and financially in the EU. However, some of them still experience macroeconomic vulnerabilities and/or face challenges related to their business environment and institutional framework which may pose risks as to the sustainability of the convergence process.

The effective implementation of the reforms and investments set out in their national recovery and resilience plans will address key macro-economic challenges. In the case of Hungary and Poland, the plans are currently being assessed by the Commission to make sure that all assessment criteria are being fulfilled.

Members of the College said:

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said: 

“Today, Croatia has made a significant step towards adopting the euro, our common currency. Less than a decade after joining the EU, Croatia is now ready to join the euro area on 1 January. This will make Croatia’s economy stronger, bringing benefits to its citizens, businesses and society at large. Croatia’s adoption of the euro will also make the euro stronger. Twenty years after the introduction of the first banknotes, the euro has become one of the most powerful currencies in the world, improving the livelihoods of millions of citizens across the Union. The euro is a symbol of European strength and unity. Congratulations, Croatia!”

Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People, said:

Croatia has shown great commitment, diligence and perseverance in its efforts to meet the conditions for adopting the euro on January 1, 2023. Taking on Europe’s common currency as its own will mark the completion of Croatia’s integration into the European Union less than a decade after its EU accession. This is a great achievement. It will bring real benefits to Croatian people and businesses and make Croatia’s economy more resilient. It also shows that the euro remains an attractive and successful global currency. Our currency is a symbol of Europe’s strength, unity and solidarity at a time when these qualities are being tested by a war raging on our doorstep.

Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy, said:

Today marks a historic milestone on Croatia’s European journey, reflecting the determined efforts the Croatian authorities have made to meet the criteria for entry into the euro area. The Croatian people can now look forward to joining more than 340 million citizens already using the euro as their currency, a rock of stability in these turbulent times. And in the year in which we celebrated the twentieth anniversary of the euro’s birth as a physical currency, the euro area as a whole can now look forward to welcoming its twentieth member.”

Background

The Convergence Report by the European Commission forms the basis for the Council of the EU’s decision on whether a Member State fulfils the conditions for joining the euro area.

The Convergence Report of the European Commission is separate to, but published in parallel with, the Convergence Report of the ECB.

Convergence reports are issued every two years, or when there is a specific request from a Member State to assess its readiness to join the euro area – for example, Latvia in 2013.

All Member States, except Denmark, are legally committed to join the euro area. Denmark, which negotiated an opt-out arrangement in the Maastricht Treaty, is therefore not covered by the Report.

While the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic recovery in 2021 had a very significant impact on the findings of the 2022 Convergence Report, the impact of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine which began in February 2022 on the historical data used to prepare the Report has been limited. The extent to which the economic convergence indicators are affected by the crisis triggered by Russia’s military agression as well as by other ongoing economic developments is fully captured in the economic projections for 2022 and 2023, which the Commission published on 16 May 2022 (Commission Spring 2022 Economic Forecast) and which are used to assess the sustainability of convergence.

For more information

Questions and answers on the European Commission’s Convergence Report 2022

European Commission’s Convergence Report 2022

ECB’s Convergence Report 2022

Previous convergence reports

Croatia and the Euro 

The Euro

Economic and Monetary Union

 


Q&A on the European Commission’s Convergence Report 2022

1 June 2022

What is the Convergence Report 2022?

The European Commission’s Convergence Report 2022 provides an assessment of the progress non-euro area Member States have made towards adopting the euro. It forms the basis for the Council of the EU decision on whether a Member State fulfils the conditions for joining the euro area.

The Convergence Report of the European Commission is separate to, but published in parallel with, the Convergence Report of the ECB.

Convergence reports are issued every two years, or when there is a specific request from a Member State to assess its readiness to join the euro area, e.g. Latvia in 2013.

All Member States, except Denmark, have legally committed to join the euro area. Denmark, which negotiated an opt-out arrangement in the Maastricht Treaty, is therefore not covered by the Report.

What are the convergence criteria?

Member States adopting the euro are required to have achieved a high level of sustainable economic convergence, which is examined in the Convergence Report by reference to the convergence criteria. These criteria (sometimes referred to as the ‘Maastricht criteria’) are set out in Art. 140(1) TFEU.

Sustainability is a key aspect of the assessment of the Maastricht criteria, which means that the progress made with convergence must be grounded on structural elements that guarantee its durability, rather than on temporary factors.

Illustrated in a simplified way, the criteria are as follows:

 

What is measured How it is measured Convergence criteria
Price stability  

Harmonised consumer price inflation

A price performance that is sustainable and average inflation over one year before the examination not more than 1.5 percentage points above the rate of the three best-performing EU countries
Sound public finances Government deficit and debt Not under excessive deficit procedure at the time of examination
Exchange rate stability Exchange rate developments in ERM II Participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) for two years without severe tensions
Durability of convergence Long-term interest rate Not more than two percentage points above the rate of the three best-performing EU countries in terms of price stability over one year before the examination

 

The Treaty also calls for an examination of other factors relevant to economic integration and convergence. These additional factors include the integration of markets and the development of the balance of payments. The assessment of additional factors is seen as an important indication of whether the integration of a Member State into the euro area would proceed smoothly.

What is the process for adopting the euro once the Member State meets all the necessary criteria?

Based on the Convergence Report 2022, the Commission submits a proposal to the ECOFIN Council which – having consulted the European Parliament, and after discussion in the Eurogroup and among the Heads of State or Government – decides whether the country fulfils the necessary conditions and may adopt the euro.

If the decision is favourable, the Economic and Financial Affairs (ECOFIN) Council takes the necessary legal steps and – based on a Commission proposal, having consulted the ECB – adopts the conversion rate at which the national currency will be replaced by the euro, which thereby becomes irrevocably fixed.

Are all non-euro area Member States obliged to join the euro?

In principle, all Member States that do not have an opt-out clause (i.e. Denmark) have legally committed to adopt the euro once they fulfil the necessary conditions. However, it is up to individual countries to calibrate their path towards the euro and no timetable is prescribed.

The Member States that joined the EU in 2004, 2007 and 2013, after the euro was launched, did not meet the conditions for entry to the euro area at the time of their accession. Therefore, their Treaties of Accession allow them time to make the necessary adjustments.

What are the main findings of the Convergence Report?

Bulgaria

In the light of its assessment on legal compatibility and on the fulfilment of the convergence criteria, and taking into account the additional factors relevant for economic integration and convergence, including balance of payments developments and integration of product, labour and financial markets, the Commission considers that Bulgaria does not fulfil the conditions for the adoption of the euro. In particular:

  • Legislation in Bulgaria is not fully compatible with the compliance duty under Article 131 TFEU.
  • Bulgaria does not fulfil the criterion on price stability.
  • Bulgaria fulfils the criterion on public finances.
  • Bulgaria fulfils the exchange rate criterion.
  • Bulgaria fulfils the criterion on the convergence of long-term interest rates.

Czechia

In light of its assessment on legal compatibility and on the fulfilment of the convergence criteria, and taking into account the additional relevant factors, the Commission considers that Czechia does not fulfil the conditions for the adoption of the euro. In particular:

  • Legislation in Czechia is not fully compatible with the compliance duty under Article 131 TFEU.
  • Czechia does not fulfil the criterion on price stability.
  • Czechia fulfils the criterion on public finances.
  • Czechia does not fulfil the exchange rate criterion.
  • Czechia fulfils the criterion on the convergence of long-term interest rates.

Croatia

In light of its assessment on legal compatibility and on the fulfilment of the convergence criteria, and taking into account the additional relevant factors, the Commission considers that Croatia fulfils the conditions for the adoption of the euro.

Hungary

In light of its assessment on legal compatibility and on the fulfilment of the convergence criteria, and taking into account the additional relevant factors, the Commission considers that Hungary does not fulfil the conditions for the adoption of the euro. In particular:

  • Legislation in Hungary is not fully compatible with the compliance duty under Article 131 TFEU.
  • Hungary does not fulfil the criterion on price stability.
  • Hungary fulfils the criterion on public finances.
  • Hungary does not fulfil the exchange rate criterion.
  • Hungary does not fulfil the criterion on the convergence of long-term interest rates.

Poland

In light of its assessment on legal compatibility and on the fulfilment of the convergence criteria, and taking into account the additional relevant factors, the Commission considers that Poland does not fulfil the conditions for the adoption of the euro. In particular:

  • Legislation in Poland is not fully compatible with the compliance duty under Article 131 TFEU.
  • Poland does not fulfil the criterion on price stability.
  • Poland fulfils the criterion on public finances.
  • Poland does not fulfil the exchange rate criterion.
  • Poland does not fulfil the criterion on the convergence of long-term interest rates.

Romania

In light of its assessment on legal compatibility and on the fulfilment of the convergence criteria, and taking into account the additional relevant factors, the Commission considers that Romania does not fulfil the conditions for the adoption of the euro. In particular:

  • Legislation in Romania is not fully compatible with the compliance duty under Article 131 TFEU.
  • Romania does not fulfil the criterion on price stability.
  • Romania does not fulfil the criterion on public finances.
  • Romania does not fulfil the exchange rate criterion.
  • Romania does not fulfil the criterion on the convergence of long-term interest rates.

Sweden

In the light of its assessment on legal compatibility and on the fulfilment of the convergence criteria, and taking into account the additional relevant factors, the Commission considers that Sweden does not fulfil the conditions for the adoption of the euro. In particular:

  • Legislation in Sweden is not fully compatible with the compliance duty under Article 131 TFEU.
  • Sweden fulfils the criterion on price stability.
  • Sweden fulfils the criterion on public finances.
  • Sweden does not fulfil the exchange rate criterion.
  • Sweden fulfils the criterion on the convergence of long-term interest rates.
What are the next steps for Croatia to join the euro?

Croatia fulfils the four nominal convergence criteria and its legislation is fully compatible with the requirements of the Treaty and the Statute of the European System of Central Banks/ECB. In the light of this assessment, and taking into account the additional factors relevant for economic integration and convergence, the Commission considers that Croatia fulfils the conditions for the adoption of the euro. It has therefore also adopted proposals for a Council Decision and a Council Regulation on euro introduction.

The Council is expected to make the final decisions on Croatia’s euro adoption in the first half of July, after discussion in the Eurogroup and in the European Council, and after the European Parliament and the ECB have given their opinions.

Croatia needs then to continue the practical preparations that will allow a smooth changeover to the euro and the euro to be concretely used in Croatia. The Commission’s services are in contact with the stakeholders from the public and private sector involved in such practical preparations and stand ready to provide the Croatian authorities with technical assistance if needed.

Does the Report reflect the impact of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine?

The impact of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine on the historical data used in the 2022 Convergence Report has been limited. This is mainly due to the constraints imposed by its cut-off date (18 May), which together with the Treaty-defined calculation methods of the price stability and long-term interest rate criteria, mean that the corresponding data still largely reflect the situation prior to the invasion.

How does the Convergence Report relate to the process to enter ERM II?

The Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) was set up on 1 January 1999 as a successor to the original ERM to ensure that exchange rate fluctuations between the euro and other EU currencies do not disrupt economic stability within the single market, and to help non-euro area Member States prepare themselves for participation in the euro area. The convergence criterion on exchange rate stability requires participation in ERM II.

Participation in ERM II is voluntary although, as one of the convergence criteria for entry to the euro area, which is assessed in the Convergence Report, a country must participate in the mechanism without severe tensions for at least two years before it can qualify to adopt the euro.

In ERM II, the exchange rate of a non-euro area Member State is fixed against the euro and is only allowed to fluctuate within set limits. Entry into ERM II is decided upon request of a non-euro area Member State by mutual agreement of all ERM II participants (euro-area Member States, ECB, and the ministers and central bank governors of the non-euro area Member States participating in the mechanism, i.e. currently Denmark).

Bulgaria and Croatia announced in July 2018 and July 2019 respectively, their intention to join ERM II and committed to implement a number of measures aimed at ensuring a smooth participation in ERM II (i.e. the so-called prior-commitments) before joining ERM II. The two countries joined ERM II in July 2020 after having fulfilled their prior-commitments. They also committed to a range of additional measures (i.e. the so-called post-entry ERM II commitments) aimed at preserving economic and financial stability and achieving a high degree of sustainable economic convergence. By 10 July 2022, both countries will have been in ERM II for two years.

For more information  

Press release: Convergence Report reviews Member States’ preparedness to join the euro area and paves the way for Croatia’s euro adoption on 1 January 2023

European Commission’s Convergence Report 2022

ECB’s Convergence Report 2022

Previous convergence reports

Croatia and the Euro

The Euro

Economic and Monetary Union


S&Ds look forward to welcoming Croatia as the 20th member of the euro area

Croatia’s adoption of the euro will benefit Croatian citizens and businesses, make our common currency stronger, as well as enhance the European resilience and unity. This is the message from the S&Ds welcoming the European Commission’s assessment that the country is ready to adopt the euro on 1 January 2023, bringing the number of the euro area countries to twenty*.

Biljana Borzan, the S&D vice-president responsible for a new economy that works for all, said:

“The S&Ds welcome Croatia joining the euro area! It has been proven that joining the euro area has had significant positive impacts on the standard of living and on average wages. In the time of crisis, being part of a strong monetary union will strengthen the resilience of Croatia’s economy. It is crucial that the transition to the euro is well executed, keeping in mind the best interests of consumers and businesses.”

Margarida Marques, S&D MEP and the chair of the euro area accession countries working group, said:

“Adopting the euro will strengthen Croatia’s economy and benefit its people and companies. This anticipated new enlargement of the euro area also shows that twenty years after the first euro banknotes were issued, our common currency and one of the main symbols of our unity is as strong and attractive as ever. This is vital in times when our values are being challenged by a war in our immediate neighbourhood.”

*Note to editors:

The Commission presented its conclusion today in the convergence report assessing the readiness of the non-euro member states to adopt the common currency. The report is published every two years. The final decision will be made by the EU member states in the first half of July, after the European Parliament and the European Central Bank have given their opinions.

All member states, except Denmark, are obliged to join the euro area once they meet all the criteria. Denmark negotiated an exemption in the Maastricht Treaty.

The euro area now consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. The youngest member is Lithuania who joined in 2015.

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EU-Abgeordneter Markus Ferber (EVP/CSU) sieht positive Entwicklung in Kroatien

Brüssel, 1. Juni 2022

„Die Konvergenzberichte zeigen, dass gerade Kroatien gute Fortschritte auf dem Weg zum Euro macht. Bei vielen ökonomischen Kennziffern steht Kroatien besser da als so manches Mitglied der Eurozone. Einem Euro-Beitritt im nächsten Jahr steht nichts entgegen“, so der CSU-Europaabgeordnete und wirtschaftspolitische Sprecher der EVP-Fraktion, Markus Ferber, anlässlich der heute von der Europäischen Kommission und Europäischen Zentralbank vorgestellten Konvergenzberichte. Diese beleuchten die Fortschritte derjenigen Mitgliedstaaten, die noch nicht Mitglied der Eurozone sind. Für Ferber ist dabei klar: „Wir müssen immer aufpassen, dass wir uns keine neuen Probleme in die Eurozone holen. Dabei braucht es eine ganzheitliche Perspektive. Gerade in diesem Jahr sollten wir uns nicht zu sehr auf einzelne Kennziffern versteifen.“

Konvergenzkriterien weitgehend erfüllt:

„Kroatien hat ein niedriges Staatsdefizit, eine niedrige Inflationsrate, einen stabilen Wechselkurs und ein niedriges Zinsniveau. Das Land hat die Unabhängigkeit seiner Notenbank gestärkt und die Bankenaufsicht arbeitet erfolgreich mit dem Gemeinsamen Aufsichtsmechanismus der EZB zusammen. Damit sind die Konvergenzbedingungen weitgehend erfüllt“, resümiert Ferber.

Stabilitätsorientierte Haushaltspolitik:

„Die Regierung von Andrej Plenković macht seit Jahren eine sehr solide Haushaltspolitik. Die Staatsverschuldung liegt deutlich unter dem Schnitt der Eurozone. Von der stabilitätsorientierten Haushaltspolitik der Plenković-Regierung könnten sich einige EU-Mitgliedstaaten eine Scheibe abschneiden“, so der CSU-Europaabgeordnete.

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