18.4.2023
Fondation Robert Schuman
The article focuses on the international arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin issued by the International Criminal Court in March, assessing the chances of its implementation and analyzing the importance of the role of the court itself.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
The war in Ukraine and the way forward: short, medium and long-term recommendations for the EPP
On 24 February 2022, conventional interstate conflict returned to Europe after Russia launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. Since the chances for a sustainable peace deal are currently rather slim, the EU must prepare for a protracted Russo-Ukrainian war characterized by intermittent periods of escalation and de-escalation. This publication presents a set of short, medium, and long-term options to shape an EU action plan.
Vox Ukraine
Ukraine’s reconstruction: questions and common grounds
The article offers an overview about ways forward for Ukraine’s reconstruction after the war, taking stock of these proposals and highlighting commonalities and differences across them.
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
To Russia with love? The impact of sanction on regime support
This paper states that on the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade. However, as supported by event studies and placebo estimations, regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions. For the average Russian district, sanction exposure increases the vote share gained by President Putin and his party by 13 percent.
International Centre for Defence and Security
Ukraine is not powerless in the Middle East
This commentary suggests that since 2014 – and especially since 2022 – Moscow has worked to create a network of friendly regimes to facilitate sanctions evasion and to displace the West from sensitive regions. However, Ukraine’s diplomatic moves in the Middle East have received the support of its closest partners such as Poland and the United States.
Vox Ukraine
Personal sanctions on Russian oligarchs: purpose and design
What should personal sanctions on Russian oligarchs look like? The authors ask how sanctions could effectively target those responsible for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
European Institute for Security Studies
Buying weapons together (or not)
The brief explains that after many years of underinvestment in defence, EU member states are rearming, but much criticism has been levelled at the slow pace. Many argue that more European cooperation on defence acquisition and arms procurement would make buying arms faster and cheaper and strengthen the European defence industrial base by consolidating demand.
Foundation for European Progressive Studies
The author argues that a stronger progressive mindset and actions will be needed to turn Ukraine’s recovery into an EU membership success story, instead of fuelling frustration on both sides. The study also looks at the socio-political dimension of Ukraine’s post-war recovery process and argues that it is important to strengthen the ‘progressive’ elements of Ukraine’s ‘imperfect’ model of democracy that make it likely to succeed in recovery and accession to the EU.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The EU after one year of war: widening, deepening, rebalancing
In order to navigate these difficult times, the paper notes that the EU needs to square the circle between widening, deepening and rebalancing, which would enable it to accomplish internal consolidation as well as addressing the geopolitical risks in its neighbourhood. This requires striking a difficult balance between new forms of flexible integration to accommodate ever-growing national differences on the one hand, and the reinforcement of common policies based on shared rules and institutions on the other.
Atlantic Council
Poland and Ukraine: the emerging alliance that could reshape Europe
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent high-profile visit to Poland underlined the deepening cooperation between these two neighbouring countries and the increasingly prominent role their partnership is playing in European politics.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
China adapts policy in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine
The strategic file looks at China’s perception of the Russian aggression and its efforts to adapt its foreign policy by strengthening strategic cooperation with Russia and weakening the international position of the US, the EU and their partners.
Observer Research Foundation
Europe and China: the impact of the Ukraine crisis
French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Beijing for a summit with President Xi Jinping of China between 5-7 April. As the author argues, the visit is a part of a noticeable push by Europe to maintain an even keel in their ties with China, which have been roiled by the events in Ukraine, issues relating to human rights in Xinjiang, and the pulls generated by the US-China tensions.
European Council on Foreign Relations
The art of vassalisation: how Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations
This paper looks at why US leadership has returned so forcefully to Europe, whether it will outlast the Ukraine war, and what America’s return to Europe means for the future of the transatlantic alliance and the member states of the EU.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
EU Ukraine strategy should include the Eurasian spine
According to the report, the European Union needs to raise its head above the parapet to scan the geopolitical horizon to deal more effectively with key threats, especially in view of the continued Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Europe needs to engage along the Eurasian spine and rediscover the art of playing the game of global geopolitics on multiple fronts in an era in which geopolitical changes will not only be persistent, but likely permanent as well.
Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
This analysis provides insights into the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and its threats for the national security of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.
RAND Corporation
Europe: Ukraine’s essential ally
While the US is Ukraine’s primary military backer, Europe is sharing the war’s overall burden. Ukraine’s future lies in Europe. This brief comments on how the EU is embracing Ukrainians, notably hosting 8 million refugees and sending generous economic and humanitarian aid. Ukrainian flags fly everywhere in Europe.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
The future of the Western Balkans in the shadow of the war in Ukraine
This brief presents a concise picture of the long-term socio-economic and democratic challenges that the Western Balkan countries face in a situation of global power competition, malign influence form authoritarian regimes, corruption and state capture, energy poverty and lack of efficient decarbonization policies and investments, brain-drain and aging populations. It also provides an initial list of measures needed to counter these barriers to the region’s development, which could be implemented with the support of the EU and international community, policy-makers and donors.
Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
Improving global food security: the impact of the Black Sea grain initiative
The article examines the relevance and the perspectives of the Black Sea grain initiative, arguing that its continuation is critical to safeguard the future of global food security.
The Japan Institute of International Affairs
One year after the invasion: China induces Russia to peace talks
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, put China in a difficult position. While China needs to maintain friendly relations with Russia, national sovereignty and territorial integrity have been principles that China has insisted on in the past. The paper explains that the possibility of peace talks coming to an agreement is not entirely excluded, but it is certainly unlikely. Above all, the biggest risk is the unreadability of Putin’s moves. There is no guarantee that Putin will follow China’s arrangement.
European Council on Foreign Relations
The article argues that despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
Strategic priorities for the Russian PMC Wagner: geopolitics, propaganda and mercenary business
The Kremlin has made strategic use of the Wagner group in Ukraine since 2014, mostly in synergy with the Russian Federation Armed Forces, until its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, started pursuing his own stratagems. This aim of this policy brief is to analyse the strategic priorities of the Wagner group and its role in the Russian security ecosystem with a view to enabling governmental and international organisations to develop strategies to effectively counter private military companies (PMCs), such as the Wagner Group.