14.6.2023
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy
Lessons learned from a year of war in Ukraine: a Greek reading
This article debates how the Russo-Ukrainian war is a transformative event for the conduct of warfare worldwide and how it can transform the way nation-states prepare for armed conflict in the decades to come. Specifically, it discusses how these states invest in their defence industrial base and international alliances to guarantee plentiful access to war materiel; and how they train their soldiers for combat and prepare civilians and civilian infrastructure for war.
Centre for European Policy Studies
Tsar Nicholas I’s Crimean war and Putin’s in Ukraine – Plus ça change
As the author points out history never repeats itself exactly, but it offers some comparisons and lessons which are analysed in this brief. Thus, with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s May statement that more time is needed before Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive can begin, everyone is implicitly being invited also to pause and reflect on what might or should become the outcome of the war. Ukraine’s declared political objective is to regain all its occupied territories, including Crimea, but the actual outcome will only be revealed first on the field of battle and then in peace negotiation.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
As a response to the Russian invasion, Ukrainian civil and military authorities have been ingenious in making use of the smartphone’s potential to be an advanced sensor with military applications. Drawing on earlier work in international law and other relevant studies, this paper discusses the implications of this development in relation to the rules of international humanitarian law.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
Ukraine: perception shapes victory and defeat
In this commentary, the author examines the role of perceptions in shaping conflicts and how it is about managing and influencing “how to think” rather than “what to think”. Perception manipulation is a key area of Russian mis/disinformation and hybrid operations, to shape perceptions of what constitutes victory or defeat, the causes of war, sanctions, and so on. In addition, it aims to cause as many cracks as possible in European societies, exploiting the openness of democracies.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Arms deliveries to Ukraine: crossing the red lines
The article looks at the scale of the military support that the West has been providing to Ukraine arguing that the Ukrainian victory is predicated not just on maintaining this aid, but on significantly increasing it.
Chatham House
Ukraine’s recovery depends on security guarantees
This brief elaborates on the Ukraine recovery Conference on June 21 and 22, which is expected to take a shorter-term approach than last year’s conference, focusing on mobilizing support for public and private investment in reconstruction.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the day after the war: a view from southern Europe
The authors provide a Southern European reflection on the war, and its security, economic and social impacts, to complement and add value to the discussions about the responses to the war and, particularly, its aftermath.
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Demining Ukraine: an urgent but under-resourced priority
The author highlights the problems of the indiscriminate bombings, fierce firefights, and traps planted by retreating Russian soldiers who leave behind untold numbers of anti-personnel/vehicle mines, and unexploded items. He further suggests an action plan for a safe Ukrainian recovery.
Centre for European Reform
Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership: going from Bucharest to Vilnius without moving?
This report analyses the upcoming Vilnius summit where NATO is likely to offer Ukraine a closer relationship than before, but less than full membership. The author considers that would be a mistake and that bringing Ukraine into NATO as soon as possible would be a better way of stablising the region.
Atlantic Council
Russian war report: satellite imagery analysis captures flood threat after dam’s destruction
The Atlantic Council’s digital forensic research lab is keeping a close eye on Russia’s movements across the military, cyber, and information domains. With more than seven years of experience monitoring the situation in Ukraine – as well as Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation to undermine the US, NATO, and the EU – the Lab’s global team presents the latest installment of the Russian war report.
Carnegie Europe
The resilience and trauma of Ukraine’s civil society
For over a year now, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian society has yet again been defying geopolitics. Ukraine’s heroic resistance against Russia has dealt a blow to those great-power admirers who expected Ukraine to fall in three days. Nevertheless, the author notes that among other challenges will be a shrinking economy and an impoverished population. In overcoming these challenges, the international community’s support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia and its postwar reconstruction will be vital.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Choosing Latvia: understanding the decision-making factors of displaced Ukrainians
This policy brief is based on an empirical examination of the early-stage migration of Ukrainian war asylum seekers to Latvia in 2022, following the Russian invasion. It highlights the urgent nature of their displacement and identifies the pivotal role of kinship in Latvia in the decision-making.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Nucené přesuny a deportace ukrajinských dětí: bezpečnostní opatření, nebo válečný zločin?
The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) published the third report of the expert mission to Ukraine within the framework of the Moscow mechanism. The report focuses on forced transfers and deportations of Ukrainian children to territories under Russian control, or directly to Russia. This paper first presents the so-called Moscow mechanism and then offers a summary of the main factual and legal conclusions of the report.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen – Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
This report sheds light on the diaspora landscape of Ukrainians and Russians in the Netherlands, including through in-depth interviews with people with a Ukrainian or Russian background.
Council on Foreign Relations
How bad is Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis a year later?
Since Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more than eight million people have fled the country, triggering Europe’s largest refugee crisis since WW II. Nearby countries have taken in millions of displaced people, while international organizations have sent tens of billions of dollars in aid. But as the conflict continues in its second year with no end in sight, experts worry that host countries are growing fatigued. The article looks at the current state of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.
Migration Policy Institute
This report explores how displaced Ukrainians are faring in European labour markets, including what is known about their early labour market outcomes and the barriers they face when seeking work. It also examines how governments can work together with civil society and employers to help new arrivals find quality jobs and, in doing so, help European societies benefit from their skills.
Vox Ukraine
The Russian invasion and the risks to global financial stability
The invasion of Ukraine has seriously disrupted the global economy, contributing to the largest inflation surge in 40 years and threatening widespread recession. The brief asks what is next for the global financial system.
Chatham House
Ukrainians demand more inclusion in post-war recovery
Ukraine’s government must provide jobs, eradicate corruption, and devolve power to create a convincing vision of post-war prosperity. As the author points out, the challenge is to simultaneously support Ukraine’s immediate needs to maintain resistance and plan for a post-war recovery. It is encouraging that both processes have begun.
German Council on Foreign Relations
Tech sanctions against Russia: turning the West’s assumptions into lessons
The author argues that as Russia is preparing to wage a protracted war, the EU must make unity and coordination on tech among its member states and partners its ongoing priority.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Russia: funding the war eases the consequences of sanctions
The article analyses the current budgetary and economic situation of Russia and the impact of sanctions on various sectors of its industry.
Centre for European Policy Studies
This report explores the evolution of EU policy towards Ukraine, with major turning points occurring in 2004, 2014 and February 2022 when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started. The dominant constraining factor in the case of Ukraine was multipolar (or rather bipolar) competition between the EU and Russia over the European political, economic and security order, which has gradually tightened since 2004.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
This brief examines the implications of the Ukraine war for Europe’s geopolitical position in a changing world order.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
The war in Ukraine and Europe’s geopolitical awakening
The second war in Ukraine showed that war on European territory was once again possible, and that it could be extremely ferocious. This note makes seven observations on the war, including the mediocrity of the Russian forces and the limits of European forces without the support of American forces. It considers that Europe’s main defence architecture is the EU itself. This does not mean distancing itself or decoupling from the United States of America, but it does mean that the Union must be a genuine ally and not a “protégé” under curatorship. Finally, the war in Ukraine must lead the European institutions to rethink their relations with China, but also with the “global South”.
Bruegel
European public opinion remains supportive of Ukraine
An erosion in public support for Ukraine might have been expected as the cost and economic consequences of the war began to impact EU households through inflation. But the article explains that support for Ukraine has remained strong, suggesting that the public understands fully the wider implications for European security of the outcome of the war. The public sides overwhelmingly with the Ukrainians, who are clearly perceived as the victims of aggression.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
The Ukraine war and its implications for European security
The brief examines the implications of the war for the EU’s (and indeed Europe’s) relations with Russia.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
With the conclusion of the winter season, the EU has successfully avoided the anticipated gas shortages and blackouts. The unprecedented LNG imports and significant decline in Russian gas imports have altered the EU’s gas import profile, and the potential security risks associated with these “new” gas suppliers have received little attention. This paper examines whether this new natural gas import portfolio is truly advantageous and what alternatives the EU has.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Food security in the context of the war in Ukraine
The Russian war in Ukraine has revealed the fragilities of the global food system. For European countries, this is both a domestic and an international issue. At the domestic level, the shortage of grains from the Black Sea region has contributed to inflation. At the international level, it threatens the stability of several countries in the Southern neighbourhood and offers an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its soft power. This paper looks at the impacts on Czechia and Norway and provides recommendations.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů
Czech and Norwegian perspectives on resilience in a post-invasion-of-Ukraine context
In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the calls for enhancing the resilience of European security systems became even more pronounced. This paper unpacks the concept of resilience by showing how it has been operationalised and put into practice by the two key security institutions in Europe – NATO and the EU – and how it has been understood at the national level in the Czech Republic and Norway.
German Marshal Fund
Toward a Marshall Plan for Ukraine
This paper gives ideas and suggestions on Ukraine’s reconstruction, with an eye toward mid- and long-term planning. It identifies five key enablers of reconstruction: private investment, energy transition, Russian assets, transparency and accountability, and donor coordination.
German Marshal Fund
Ukraine needs a “Green Marshall Plan” that empowers cities and civil society
Focused on the enormous task of building back sustainably from the war, the author highlights key aspects of a “green” Marshall Plan for Ukraine that provides financial and technical as well as policy assistance.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Unpacking the Vatican’s diplomatic failure in reaching a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war
Ever since the start of the Russian invasion, Pope Francis has ardently sought to mediate between the two states, directing his attention primarily towards pressing humanitarian issues, including the facilitation of prisoner exchanges. This article looks at the reasons why the Vatican’s diplomacy to achieve a ceasefire has failed from the very outset and is unlikely to succeed in the future, except in matters pertaining to humanitarian issues related to the war.
School of European Political Economy
Ukraine’s accession to the EU requires a change in Europe itself
This brief analyzes European Commission’s aim to launch Ukraine’s accession process to the EU by the end of 2023. This initiative will open a wave of enlargement to other candidate Eastern European countries. The process has huge political, financial, and institutional implications that no one can predict today, and that tomorrow could put pressure on the Union’s integrity itself.
Vox Ukraine
How Ukraine can finish the unfinished transition agenda
The author argues that Ukraine’s EU accession would trigger a new wave of democratic transition and consolidation not only in Ukraine, but across the region.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Point of no return? The transformation of the global order after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The report answers questions about the scope, nature, and significance of the changes in the international system, which were induced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It explains how the war has brought fundamental changes to NATO and the EU, set out new perspectives on Russia and Ukraine, transformed thinking about Europe’s future security architecture and energy policy and impacted the policies of China and of the Global South.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
The article analyses the potential war outcomes and the current impasse between Washington and Moscow, while the US’s strategic priority is in the Indo-Pacific. It argues that Ukraine may win the war, but it will probably lose the peace.
Vox Ukraine
Why Ukraine’s triumph is important for Latin America
The article looks at the economic implications of the Ukraine war for Latin America, including commodity prices, trade flows and the impact on the multilateral trade system.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Беларусcко-Украинский Экспертный Диалог: Будущее Двусторонних Отношений (Belarusian-Ukrainian expert dialogue: the future of bilateral relations)
The author states that Belarus’ complicity in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only affected political relations between official Minsk and Kyiv, but also increased conflicts on the level of people and communities.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
U.S. defence sector faces challenges related to support for Ukraine
This strategic file summarizes military support provided to Ukraine by the US so far, its impact on US own potential, possible consequences for the allies and related challenges such as the necessity to replenish own stocks and to raise production.
United States Institute of Peace
Dislodging Putin’s foothold in the Balkans
This article dives into how, as European partners focus on the war in Ukraine, Russia is taking the opportunity to nibble away at NATO’s borders and to sow discord in countries hoping to some day present a strong case for joining the EU.