Nuku’alofa, Tonga, 27 August 2024
Distinguished members of the media,
I am in Tonga to issue a global SOS – Save Our Seas – on rising sea levels. A worldwide catastrophe is putting this Pacific paradise in peril. Global average sea levels are rising at rates unprecedented in the past 3,000 years.
The ocean is overflowing. The changes here in the Pacific region are visible since my last visit. And around the world, rising seas have unparallelled power to cause havoc to coastal cities and ravage coastal economies. The reason is clear: greenhouse gases – overwhelmingly generated by burning fossil fuels – are cooking our planet. And the sea is taking the heat – literally.
It has absorbed more than 90 percent of global heating in the past fifty years. Water expands as it gets hotter. And glaciers and ice sheets are melting into the sea – adding to its volume. In other words – more water is taking up more space.
Two papers released today by the United Nations throw the situation into sharp relief:
- The World Meteorological Organization’s report on the State of the Climate in the South West Pacific;
- And the UN Climate Action Team’s new report summarizing the science: Surging seas in a warming world.
Taken together, they show that changes to the ocean are accelerating, with devastating impacts. Month after month, sea temperatures shatter records. Marine heatwaves are more intense and longer-lasting – doubling its frequency since 1980.
And rising seas are amplifying the frequency and severity of storm surges and coastal flooding. These floods swamp coastal communities. Ruin fisheries. Damage crops. And contaminate fresh water.
All this puts Pacific Islands in grave danger.
Today’s reports confirm that relative sea levels in the Southwestern Pacific have risen even more than the global average – in some locations, by more than double the global increase in the past thirty years. Ocean temperatures are increasing at up to three times the rate worldwide. And Pacific islands are uniquely exposed. This is a region with an average elevation just one to two meters above sea level; Where around 90 percent of people live within 5 kilometers of the coast; And where half the infrastructure is within 500 metres of the sea.
Without drastic cuts in emissions, the Pacific Islands can expect at least 15 centimeters of additional sea level rise by mid-century, and more than 30 days per year of coastal flooding in some places.
Distinguished members of the media,
Today’s reports show that the average rate of sea level rise has more than doubled since the 1990s. But a doubling in speed shows that the phenomenon is accelerating in an unusual and uncontrolled way. Global-mean sea level has already risen over 10cm since 1993. It is as I said worse in the Pacific, with some locations exceeding 15cm.
Emerging science suggests that a two-degree temperature rise could potentially lead to the loss of almost all the Greenland ice sheet, and much of the West Antarctica ice sheet. This would mean condemning future generations to unstoppable sea level rise up to 20 meters – over a period of millennia.
But at three degrees of warming – our current trajectory – the rise in sea level would happen much more quickly – over centuries. That spells disaster: wide-ranging and brutal impacts, coming far thicker and faster than we can adapt to them – destroying entire coastal communities.
Can you imagine the impact on this beautiful capital city of Nuku’alofa? But what happens in Tonga did not start in Tonga, and it doesn’t end here.
Surging seas are coming for us all – together with the devastation of fishing, tourism, and the Blue Economy. Across the world, around a billion people live in coastal areas, from low-lying islands to megacities; from tropical agricultural deltas to Arctic communities.
Coastal megacities including Dhaka, Los Angeles, Mumbai, Lagos and Shanghai are threatened by our swelling ocean. Rising seas will increase the frequency of extreme events like coastal floods.
If global temperatures rise by 2.5 degrees, that frequency could increase from once in 100 years to once in five years by the end of this century.
Without new adaptation and protection measures, economic damage from coastal flooding could amount to trillions of dollars. Around 1 meter of future sea level rise is already locked in. But its future scale, pace, and impact are not.
That depends on decisions we take now. Global leaders must step up: To drastically slash global emissions; To lead a fast and fair phase-out of fossil fuels; And to massively boost climate adaptation investments, to protect people from present and future risks.
Only by limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius do we have a fighting chance of preventing the irreversible collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets – and the catastrophes that accompany them.
That means cutting global emissions by 43 percent compared to 2019 levels by 2030, and 60 percent by 2035. We need governments to honour the promise made at COP28 – and deliver new national climate action plans – or Nationally Determined Contributions – by next year. And these must be aligned with the 1.5 degree limit, and cover all emissions and the whole economy.
They must put the world on track to phase out fossil fuels fast and fairly – including ending new coal projects and new oil and gas expansion now.
And they must keep the promises made at COP28 to triple renewables capacity, double energy efficiency and end deforestation by 2030.
The G20 – the biggest emitters, with the greatest capacity and responsibility to lead – must be out in front.
And the world must massively increase finance and support for vulnerable countries.
We need a surge in funds to deal with the surging seas.
At COP29, countries must agree to boost innovative financing and a strong new finance goal.
And developed countries must deliver on their finance commitments – including the commitment to double adaptation funding to at least $40 billion a year by 2025.
And we need significant contributions to the new Loss and Damage Fund as a step towards climate justice – in support of vulnerable countries like the Pacific Islands: And the same applies to the Pacific
initiatives that were announced once again during this Summit of the Pacific funds to protect the Pacific Islands.
Finally, we need to protect every person on Earth with an early warning system by 2027. That means building up countries’ data capacities to improve decision-making on adaptation and coastal planning.
Dear members of the media,
The world must look to the Pacific and listen to science. This is a crazy situation: Rising seas are a crisis entirely of humanity’s making. A crisis that will soon swell to an almost unimaginable scale, with no lifeboat to take us back to safety. But if we save the Pacific, we also save ourselves. The world must act, and answer the SOS before it is too late.
And I thank you.
Question: How frustrated are you by the lack of action from G20 and other developed nations, particularly as they continue to expand oil and gas production?
Secretary-General: I’m extremely concerned. G20 countries represent 80% of emissions, and it is obvious that without a drastic reduction of emissions of all of them, we will not be able to keep the 1.5 degree, and we might risk even to go over the two degrees, which will be absolutely devastating. And there is a dialogue that we need to dismount. Sometimes developed countries say, well we have already done a programme to reduce our emissions, so it’s emerging economies that now will do the same. And emerging economies say, but you have polluted during decades, and now we also need some margin in relation to the development of our country. And if we count by consumption instead of by production, then the emissions in developed countries are much higher. This kind of dialogue leads nowhere. We cannot go on blaming each other. We absolutely need all G20 countries to come together, to use the best technologies available within the G20 to use the financial resources that exist within the G20 and in multilateral development institutions, and to have a concerted global action to have a drastic reduction of emissions in until 2030; if that does not happen, we will be in an irreversible situation with absolutely devastating consequences.
Question: In a similar way, Secretary-General, you called for a fast phase out of fossil fuels. Is it fair or acceptable for a country like Australia to continue to improve new coal and gas projects?
Secretary-General: Well, what we say is that we need to have a phase out of fossil fuels that is done through a just transition, and that means that fossil fuels need to be phased out, that I believe is today scientific evidence. But obviously the situation in different countries is different, and the justice in the way this is done means that there are different reasons and there are different ways to do it, but let’s have no illusion: without phase out of fossil fuels in a fair and just way, there is no way we can keep the 1.5 degrees alive.
Question: Are you hoping to have leaders agree to a sea level rise declaration by the end of the week, and for it to be presented at the UNGA later next month? Do you think PIF and the General Assembly should support the declaration? And also, how are your plans for a pledging conference on climate change and how’s it coming about? I understand your target is $500 million.
Secretary-General: I have a lot of confidence in the determination of Pacific Islands to speak loud and clear in the next General Assembly. We have seen that with sea level rise, the impact is particularly dramatic in Pacific Islands. And Pacific Islands do not contribute to Climate Change, so they have a moral authority to ask those that are creating this in accelerating the sea level rise to reverse these trends. And we count on the leadership of Pacific Islands and will be fully supportive of their declaration.
Question: I just have a question, because you see the building so climate change here in Tonga, are we seeing any technical or financial assistance soon from the office?
Secretary-General: I am totally committed to mobilize the new capacity that the UN has in the Pacific, to support Tonga, and to support all islands of the Pacific. Yesterday, I had the opportunity to see the inauguration of a meteorological radar that is part of the first line of protection, and it’s financed by, essentially by New Zealand. And Tonga will be equipped from now on to have an effective early warning system. So, we are very much willing to cooperate with the Government of Tonga to strengthen their capacity.
Source – United Nations