Brussels, 22 January 2025
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[Opening Remarks]
To start with: Happy Birthday! 20 years European Defence Agency. That is really worth celebrating.
Just over 20 years ago, in 2004, my country, Lithuania, joined the European Union. And my country joined NATO. Along with many other countries in Central and Eastern Europe.
For us, it was a historical miracle, since we had lived for many years under Soviet oppression, Soviet occupation, behind the Iron Curtain.
20 years ago, the future looked bright: no Iron Curtain anymore, peace and democracy on the European continent forever!
20 years ago, the European Union still did very little on Defence. And then: the European Defence Agency entered the stage.
And now, we’re doing a whole lot more. Thanks also, to the European Defence Agency.
[Reflections on the Present]
Now, twenty years later, I stand here as the European Union’s first Commissioner for Defence and Space. But 20 years later, we also live in different times. We live in dangerous times.
I don’t want to spoil the party. But as all of us in this room understand – the storm clouds of war are gathering over Europe. We are already under attack: on land, at sea, in the air, and in cyberspace.
Hybrid attacks are increasing, testing our readiness, our resolve, our response. As some experts are saying, Russia is waging “new generation warfare” against us. Propaganda, sabotage, and real military aggression are just different forms of the same war, of “total war.”
If we do nothing, these hybrid attacks could be followed by military attacks. There should be no doubt about Putin’s intentions.
[Russia’s Intentions and Threats]
Putin may not stop at Ukraine. He wants to turn back the clock—not twenty years, but forty years or more—to the Soviet Union, to the Russian empire, even. That’s clear from everything Putin and his propagandists say.
It could mean annexation, occupation of parts of Europe, and domination of the rest. The first step? The “occupation” of the hearts and minds of our people.
And Russia is not alone. North Korea and Iran are part of the same Axis of Aggressive Authoritarians. China is not far behind.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and EU Member States’ intelligence services are warning us: if we do nothing, in five years’ time, Russia may be ready for a military confrontation with NATO and the European Union.
Russia’s war economy is operating at full blast. Russian factories are working day and night, pouring out weapons and ammunition. Russia has doubled its war spending since before the full-scale invasion. This year, Russia will spend forty percent of its federal expenditure on defence and security—9 percent of its GDP.
[The Need for Commitment]
Last year, EU Member States spent on average 1.9 percent of GDP on Defence—a thirty percent increase. But still, a far cry from what is needed.
Over the weekend in Lithuania, I heard news: Lithuania intends to allocate between 5-6 percent of its GDP on defence in the coming years. Lithuania is my home country, so I may be a bit prejudiced. But that is the kind of commitment we need.
[Learning from History: Jean Monnet]
There is still time to deter Russian aggression and prevent a European war. But before I tell you how we can do that, let’s turn to history for inspiration.
Recently, I read the memoirs of Jean Monnet, one of the founding fathers of the European Union and a key figure in mobilizing the United States’ “Arsenal of Democracy” during World War II. He helped the Roosevelt administration prepare the so-called “Victory Plan,” which was crucial for Allied success.
Monnet’s experiences resonate today:
- The lacking sense of urgency at the war’s start.
- Low reserves of manpower and weapons.
- Reluctance from industry to invest without clear orders.
- Military unease about revealing needs due to secrecy.
- Budget concerns.
Despite these challenges, Monnet understood the importance of clarity and urgency. His advice holds true for us: when facing an existential threat, money must not become an obstacle for defence.
[Steps Forward: Defence and Industry]
We too face big gaps in readiness. But we can deter Russian aggression in Europe by:
- Supporting Ukraine: Every missile and drone shot down by Ukraine is one less threatening Europe. Every day Ukraine fights on is a day for NATO and the EU to grow stronger.
- Equipping EU Member States: Implementing the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and leveraging the European Defence Fund to support large-scale defence programs.
- Increasing Production: The Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) has significantly boosted production of artillery shells, from 300,000 in 2023 to 2 million in 2025. Joint procurement programs like EDIRPA show that aggregated European demand yields colossal returns.
- Enhancing Coordination: Projects like Air Defence Shield, Cyber Shield, and Military Mobility underscore the need for European-scale cooperation.
- Passing Key Legislation: The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) and a forthcoming White Paper on European Defence will provide the framework for future defence readiness.
[Final Thoughts]
Unlike Jean Monnet’s time, we still have a chance to prevent major conflict. We have NATO, the EU, and the largest single market in the world.
We can outspend, outproduce, and outgun Russia. Every euro we spend today on defence will save lives tomorrow—lives of our sons, daughters, and future generations.
Let’s turbocharge our efforts, together. Industry, Member States, armed forces, and EU institutions, especially the European Defence Agency, must work in seamless cooperation.
The EU economy is many times larger than Russia’s. We can become the Arsenal of Democracy, deter aggression, and ensure peace.
This is my goal as Commissioner and as a European. I count on your support to make it happen.
Let’s do it!
Source – EU Commission