Brussels, 6 February 2025
Authors:
The year 2025 began with a new series of security challenges for Europe: uncertainty over the future of the transatlantic relationship, hybrid attacks across the continent, and the question of how to approach a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. In the face of these converging issues, how can EU policymakers effectively identify and prioritise the most significant threats to European interests?
To answer this question, the EUISS partnered with the European University Institute (EUI), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS) to conduct a survey among European experts on the main risks to the Union in 2025. The surveyed experts are members of the EUISS, TEPSA, and EISS networks. 40% identified themselves as EU foreign policy experts, 98% hold at least a master’s degree, and nearly 60% hold a PhD.
The Global Risks to the EU project, launched by the Robert Schuman Centre at the European University Institute, represents the first comprehensive, continent-wide assessment of global risk perceptions among European experts.
At the end of 2024, the survey asked close to 400 unique respondents to rank the likelihood and expected impact of 30 predefined risks affecting EU interests – defined as coherence, unity, security and prosperity. The survey aims to generate strategic foresight for EU foreign policy, analyse foreign policy alignment within the EU, and facilitate transatlantic comparisons of strategic priorities.
The top risks identified by experts range from Russia’s continued aggression, to a potential US withdrawal from its security guarantees, to war in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. Here, we review the main risks and suggest what the EU should do to address them in a proactive way.
Appeasing Russia – in Ukraine and beyond
Experts overwhelmingly view the defeat of Ukraine as a critical threat to EU interests, with a ceasefire favourable to Russia emerging as the top risk for 2025. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the Kremlin’s efforts to rewrite the post-Cold War order in Europe have fundamentally disrupted the EU’s security. Today, through its actions against Ukraine, Russia continues to put pressure on EU unity and policy coherence. The concern that the Trump administration could push for negotiations with Russia while bypassing Ukraine and the EU’s interests likely contributed to the high importance that the experts attached to this risk. If Moscow were to secure a favourable ceasefire in Ukraine, leaving Kyiv defenceless and without a path towards Euro-Atlantic integration, the Kremlin could rearm and launch another attack in the near future.
EU experts also identify a high risk of new Russian military action in non-NATO neighbouring states. They furthermore foresee the risks emerging from the formation of pro-Russian governments in Georgia, and potentially in Moldova. However, the experts consider the risk of a confrontation between NATO and Russia to be moderate, assessing this to be of relatively low likelihood, reflecting confidence in NATO’s capacity to deter direct Russian attacks.
US abandonment – in Europe and the Pacific
The withdrawal of American security guarantees to Europe also ranks among EU experts’ top concerns for 2025. Remarkably, in the view of these experts, US abandonment would have as high an impact on the EU as a Russian nuclear strike. This metric captures EU reliance on the United States for its security as perceived by the experts who clearly take President Donald Trump’s threat of not honouring US pledges towards NATO allies very seriously.
Moreover, experts view a direct US-China military confrontation as unlikely in the short term, despite rating the likelihood of a cross-strait conflict between China and Taiwan as moderately high and the chances of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea as extremely high. This finding suggests that, in the event of Chinese aggression against US allies like Taiwan or the Philippines, the Trump administration would not act decisively to defend US interests in the region in 2025. However, EU experts acknowledge the significant impact that a potential US-China conflict would have on EU interests, reflecting the far-reaching influence of great power competition on global stability, EU security and economic prosperity.
Hybrid and cyber threats
Experts rank the risk of disruptive hybrid attacks on EU infrastructure among the top threats to EU interests in 2025. Their assessment aligns with reports pointing to a heightened cybersecurity threat, driven by increased activity from hacktivists, cybercriminals and state-sponsored groups, especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Additionally, the response reflects the growing frequency of physical attacks on critical infrastructure such as sabotaging subsea cables or burning ammunition factories. While direct conflict between NATO and Russia remains a lower-likelihood risk, European experts see a large-scale hybrid attack as having a moderate likelihood of occurring and of constituting a high-impact threat.
No durable peace in the Middle East
Experts predict that a lasting ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is unlikely in 2025, ranking the ongoing conflict as one of the top risks to EU interests. Although a fragile ceasefire was brokered in January 2025, the absence of a long-term strategy to forge peace between the two sides will sustain high levels of tension. According to experts, this conflict will continue to strain the unity and coherence of EU policy in the Middle East. They also acknowledge the potential risk of a large-scale military confrontation between Iran and Israel, which they view as moderately likely to occur and believe would be highly impactful on EU interests.
In the Middle East geopolitical landscape, experts rank the collapse of the state of Lebanon as highly likely, though with moderate repercussions on EU interests. However, any of these conflicts could trigger large-scale migration towards the EU, which is seen as a high-risk scenario that would have a major impact on the continent.
12345Likelihood12345ImpactHigh riskModerate riskRemote risk
Time to act: Suggestions for EU policymakers
Faced with this gloomy picture, the EU has two choices: to despair, or to act.
—
The Global Risks to the EU survey reveals overwhelming consensus among experts – across academia, think tanks, and policymaking circles – on the top issues affecting EU interests. On average, policymakers and think tankers express slightly more concern than academics.
The main risks are also recognised across the territory of the Union. Although there was once a divide between Eastern and Western Europe regarding the threat posed by Russia, Moscow’s belligerence has now unified expert opinion. The lack of significant differences between respondents from different regions suggests that Europeans might be overcoming long-term divergences in threat perception. This unity of views presents an opportunity that the EU should not waste.
Source – EU-ISS