14 April 2024
Following Iran’s drone and missile attacks on Israel on Sunday morning, Julien Barnes-Dacey, Director, Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has published the following initial takeaways:
- Iran felt compelled to respond to Israel’s attack on its consulate in Syria in an escalatory fashion and direct Iranian attacks on Israel are an unprecedented step in a steadily deepening and ever more direct regional war.
- But the strikes were very well telegraphed in advance and Iran made clear, even as the attacks were unfolding, that it wanted to avoid unleashing a wider conflict. This was about demonstrating a firm response and yet holding it sufficiently in check to avoid provoking direct war, which is still Iran’s core aim.
- While Iran launched attacks on Israel for the first time, the weak showing of these drones strikes and Tehran’s clear desire to avoid getting sucked into a direct conflict, does not do much to strengthen its deterrence posture.
- The nature of the attacks may strengthen an Israeli perception that Tehran is on the back foot, lacking the willpower and capacity for deeper engagement, and that now is the moment for Israel to inflict a long sought after deeper blow on Iran and its regional proxies.
- Iran’s attacks also rallied new international support behind Israel, including from key Arab states critical of the Gaza offensive that nonetheless supported the Israeli military response to the drone attacks.
- The trajectory of the situation now depends on whether Israel feels the need to retaliate, including through potential direct attacks on Iran. While there may be a sense of confidence in Israel, it would likely be a mistake to imagine that Iran won’t unleash a far more impactful response to strikes on its own territory which it will view in existential terms.
- Europeans should now be working hard and closely with the Americans to prevent continued escalation, starting by pressing Israel to not retaliate further and then focusing renewed efforts on securing a ceasefire in Gaza which continues to fuel the wider situation.
The ECFR’s project “Mapping the Middel East’s shifting battle lines” outlines the domestic and regional dynamics driving these interconnected conflicts – including the underlying confrontation between Iran and its allies against the United States and Israel.