Trump’s Return and Europe’s Foreign Policy Challenges – SWP Study

Laura von Daniels, Stefan Mair (Eds.)

SWP Study 2025/S 03, 12.02.2025, 64 pages

Full text (HTML): SWP Publication

Full text (PDF): Download PDF

Summary

(GPT-translated – scroll-down for original German version)

The second Trump presidency presents significant challenges for Germany and Europe. The new U.S. administration is expected to adopt a confrontational stance toward the EU—especially Germany—favor transactional, interest-driven diplomacy, and be marked by unpredictable policy shifts.

Trump’s approach will strain global cooperation, particularly in climate and refugee policy. So far, the EU and other global actors have not developed sufficient strategies to compensate for the lack of U.S. engagement in these critical areas.

Trump’s transactional foreign policy also affects local and regional conflicts, such as U.S. relations with Israel and the broader Middle East, potentially undermining international law and democratic principles. Uncertainty looms over the future direction of U.S. policy toward Iran as well.

The ongoing rivalry with China remains central to American foreign and security policy. This will significantly impact U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific, many of whom rely heavily on U.S. security guarantees.

Much will depend on the evolution of the U.S. system of “checks and balances.” It remains unclear how effectively Congress and the judiciary can place limits on the president’s foreign policy initiatives. Another open question is whether voices within the administration that value alliances as a strategic asset for the U.S. will prevail over more isolationist elements.

For Europe, a key concern will be how the Trump administration handles critical security issues—particularly NATO and Ukraine. Should the U.S. scale back its commitments, Europe’s security architecture could undergo profound changes.

New U.S. trade tariffs and economic coercive measures could inflict significant economic harm on the EU, compounding the uncertainty in security matters. However, more problematic than the direct economic costs is Trump’s tendency to intertwine trade and security policies, which has so far hindered a unified European response to U.S. threats.

Europe—and Germany in particular—must intensify efforts to safeguard their own security. This requires enhanced intra-European coordination, including with the United Kingdom, and stronger partnerships with countries in similar positions vis-à-vis the U.S., notably Japan and South Korea.

Insight EU note about SWP (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik)

The Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), or German Institute for International and Security Affairs, plays a pivotal role in German and European policymaking. As one of Europe’s leading foreign policy think tanks, SWP conducts in-depth research on international relations and provides policy advice to the German Bundestag (Federal Parliament) and the Federal Government. Founded in 1962, SWP serves as a bridge between academic research and political decision-making, offering independent, evidence-based analyses on foreign and security policy issues. It is funded primarily by the German government but maintains its institutional and research independence. SWP’s influence extends beyond Germany, often contributing to debates within the European Union and NATO, helping to shape European foreign policy strategies. Its studies and policy papers, like the one summarized here, are key resources for diplomats, policymakers, and academics dealing with global political challenges.