Brussels, 28 June 2023
The impact of the Kakhovka dam breach on the new Ukrainian counteroffensive; the worrying rise of Russian state-sponsored mercenary forces; pursuing justice for international crimes in Ukraine; Ukraine’s cyber defence; reconstructing Ukraine by creating a freer, more prosperous, and secure future; the continuing effects of sanctions on Russia; and how to keep Europe safe after the war are some of the topics dealt with in the present update.
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Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine
Center for Strategic & International Studies
The impact of the Kakhovka dam breach on the new Ukrainian counteroffensive
The author argues that while it won’t stop the offensive, the breach causes a significant delay. Russia’s defenses strengthen, complicating Ukraine’s task. The flooding poses challenges, altering the river’s conditions and logistics. A viable offensive in Kherson Oblast is unlikely for weeks.
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Dogs of war: Russia’s corporate warriors in armed conflicts
The author finds that the role of state-sponsored irregular armed groups in Russia’s strategy to extend its influence abroad has been increasing since the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas war against Ukraine in 2014/2015 and that Russia’s ‘corporate warriors’ embody the fusion of business interests and military power. He argues that European policymakers should be concerned about the rise of these mercenary armed forces, and in particular the Wagner Group, due to their dangerous and negative impact on regional stability and security.
VOX Ukraine
Foreign support to Ukraine: evidence from a database of military, financial, and humanitarian aid
How large is the support for Ukraine? Who are the most supportive governments? What type of support do countries offer? The article sheds light on support rendered to Ukraine so far.
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
Ukraine’s cyber defence: insights on private sector contributions since the Russian invasion
This brief outlines some key takeaways from the active private sector participation in Ukraine’s cyber defences since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. It contains insights from industry experts, government representatives, and researchers on cybersecurity who participated in a closed-door roundtable discussion conducted as part of the GLOBSEC future of cyberspace cooperation initiative: transatlantic chapter.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Ukrainian prism: foreign policy
This extensive report constitutes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of Ukranian foreign policy in 2022 carried out by the Representation of the Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung in Kiev. Stating that their work is meant to provide hints as to where and how the work for victory over Russia can be strengthened, the authors assess Ukraine’s foreign policy accomplishments and failures.
RAND corporation
Reconstructing Ukraine : creating a freer, more prosperous, and secure future
The authors of this report examine previous post-war and post–natural disaster reform and reconstruction efforts to draw lessons and inform policymakers. They also discuss security arrangements, which will be essential for the success of reconstruction.
Ústav mezinárodních vztahů / Institut pro evropskou politiku EUROPEUM
Gendering Europe’s security and recovery responses to Ukraine
Responses to Russia’s war on Ukraine have been profoundly gendered, effectively side-lining the Women, Peace and Security agenda and other gender norms. This policy paper argues that side-lining gender as a ‘soft’ issue for later cannot be justified because gender dynamics are at the centre of soft and hard security right now. It shows that it is now urgent to centre the gender dimension and Ukrainian women’s voices at all levels of Europe’s engagement with Ukraine.
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
This paper discusses accountability options featuring in the international debate on how to deal with international crimes – particularly war crimes and the crime of aggression – committed by Russians in and against Ukraine. The exploration mainly concerns institutional efforts to ensure individual criminal responsibility under international law, which means that the focus will be on national prosecutions, the International Criminal Court, and a potential ad hoc tribunal.
The German Marshal Fund
Ukraine’s anti-corruption front
The paper discusses Ukraine’s ongoing battle against oligarchy and corruption, highlighting the progress made in the past decade, and emphasizing the need for domestic and foreign support to combat corruption, safeguard aid, and inspire global freedom. It provides recommendations for key stakeholders, including Ukraine, the EU, the US Congress, and G7 donors, to support Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts.
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
Public expenditure and tax policy for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine
In this report the role of foreign aid in the post-war recovery is highlighted and efficient mechanisms for coordination and reconciliation of Ukrainian public expenditure with external donor funding are suggested. Moreover, the authors propose tax reform measures with a focus on personal income taxation, social security contributions and improving tax collections that are targeted at financing Ukraine’s reconstruction needs.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Ukrainian oligarchs and their businesses: their fading importance
The article looks at the decline of the oligarchs in Ukraine. It examines the impact of the war and the economic crisis on their businesses as well as the prospect for oligarchic system in the country.
VOX Ukraine
The article argues that the negative impact of sanctions on Western economies has been overestimated and suggests further restrictive measures should be imposed against Russia.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
From bad to worse: the continuing effects of sanctions on Russia
The economic situation in Russia significantly worsened in the early months of 2023 due to Western sanctions. This paper examines the impacts of Western sanctions on the Russian economy.
Centre for European Reform
Why Russia must pay for the damage it has done to Ukraine – and how to ensure it does
This paper analyses how Western governments have already invested billions of dollars, euros and pounds into military, humanitarian, and financial assistance for Ukraine. It takes the view that before Western governments ask their own taxpayers to stump up again, they should put the responsibility where it belongs: on the Russian state.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
European tank storage and changing geopolitical landscapes
This report assesses the impact of the war in Ukraine on European energy security and decarbonization, with a specific focus on the tank storage sector. It looks at the impacts of the war on market volatility and supply security in the short term; and it provides an overview of the challenges and opportunities arising from the transition on a longer term.
Friends of Europe
After the war: how to keep Europe safe
The study examines how much advanced defence NATO needs for credible deterrence and assurance on its eastern flank, and considers how to bolster Europe’s resilience through a whole-of-society defence effort. It also outlines recommendations for the EU, NATO and the transatlantic community on what is required for the future defence of Europe in light of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Mobilising investments for Ukraine reconstruction: strengthening the Team Europe approach
The EU, its member states and financial institutions for development have been at the forefront of the international community efforts in supporting Ukraine’s defence against the Russian aggression, providing humanitarian aid and supporting Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction efforts. This paper looks at the different ways of mobilising investments for Ukraine and argues for stronger Team Europe efforts in Ukraine aligned with the EU interests, from geostrategic, security, political and economic perspectives.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The EU and the transformed nuclear context since the war in Ukraine
The author claims that the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in February 2022 has entirely transformed the European security landscape, bringing war to the EU’s doorstep. Importantly, the war features a nuclear dimension that manifests itself in consequential ways, including Moscow’s nuclear sabre rattling and its denunciation of the last surviving nuclear arms control treaty. This has unleashed intriguing reactions, like a surprisingly tough resort to sanctions by the EU, or the shrinking of neutrality on the continent.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
How the Russia–Ukraine war could end, and its impact on conventional arms control
The paper is a brief overview of consequences for the EU, and for the role it can play in the resulting security situation.
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Africa’s peace delegation: a new chapter for Africa and the Ukraine war
The article comments on the delegation of African leaders and officials from six countries which arrived in Kyiv to begin separate peace talks on the war in Ukraine with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian president Vladimir Putin. While African countries’ nonalignment offers potential as peace brokers, limited leverage hinders progress. The author suggests that achieving a peaceful resolution seems unlikely due to conflicting objectives. Nonetheless, the visit presented an opportunity to tackle Africa’s food security concerns through compromises.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Wstęp Spojrzenie na Wschód z Warszawy i Berlina
This paper deals with the impact of the war in Ukraine on German-Polish relations. Its aim is to better understand the viewpoints and experiences of both sides, and to draw lessons from the past so that a newly formulated European Eastern policy can benefit from diverse approaches and respect divergent perspectives.
Institut Montaigne
Bélarus: un État vassalisé par Moscou, acteur ambigu de la guerre en Ukraine
The author reflects on the role of Belarus as an actor in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. If President Lukashenko is part of the most pro-Russian movement on the Belarusian political spectrum, society as a whole is very opposed to going to war against Ukraine. Also, he claims that Belarusians believe that only the country’s neutrality can guarantee its survival and autonomy. Under the double influence of the reluctance of public opinion and the dilapidation of its army (only 10,000 of the 50,000 members of the army are fit to fight), Belarus has not formally entered the war against Ukraine.
Source – EU Council