14.03.2023
Centre for Eastern studies
New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost
The article analyses the process of identity transformation of Ukrainians accelerated by the Russian invasion. Ukrainians’ turn towards their native history, culture and language as well as rejection of the belief in Russia’s supremacy comes, however, at a high price, with economic ruin and war trauma.
Terra nova
La paix, c’est la guerre: faut-il négocier maintenant avec Poutine?
This note examines several arguments and asks if it is not time to put an end to the terrible war that is tearing Ukraine apart by starting negotiations with the Russian President as soon as possible. However, the author considers whether this idea, more and more frequently put forward as the war drags on, would really serve the cause of peace.
Atlantic Council
Premature peace with Putin would be disastrous for international security
The international community has been amazed by the resilience of the Ukrainian people and inspired by their determination to defy the Russian colossus. At the same time, as the invasion enters its second year, the brief notes that calls are now mounting for some kind of compromise with the Kremlin that would end the fighting and effectively freeze the conflict.
Notre Europe – Institut Jacques Delors
Quelles garanties de sécurité européennes possibles pour l’Ukraine ?
The article argues that any settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, whether or not it is negotiated with Russia, would have to include security guarantees for Ukraine, so that the country can no longer find itself in the position of vulnerability as previously on 24 February 2022.
Council on Foreign Relations
In the year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has evolved in ways few predicted. The article analyses the possible future developments of the war in Ukraine.
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
Hard work for 2023: supporting Ukraine to win the war against Russia
Western partners have shown their determination to upgrade their military assistance to Ukraine and provide the requested heavy armory more ammunition, and technologically advanced air-defense systems like the Patriot. The brief asks if it will be enough to enable Ukraine to enter a decisive breakthrough leading to a victory in the war and what else is needed to keep the momentum and launch a scaled counter-offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces.
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Together with researchers from 13 European countries, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung analyses possible scenarios for the future development of the war.
Razumkov Centre
Why the war in Ukraine goes on, despite expert forecasts
The author analyses the predictions made by Western and Ukrainian experts on the duration of the war, highlighting reasons for incorrect predictions made on both sides.
Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine needs to pursue victory without sacrificing its democratic future
The article focuses on the importance of finding the right balance between striking out against Russian influence and respecting fundamental freedoms, which will test the Ukrainian government for the duration of the war and likely beyond.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Envisioning a multilayered security blanket for Ukraine
In the absence of any definitive plan for postwar security guarantees for Ukraine, the author suggests a 3-tiered approach that can provide security for Kyiv and discourage Moscow from future aggression. This plan includes providing full NATO membership, interlocking western commitments, and expediting Ukraine’s EU membership.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ukrainian innovation in a war of attrition
This brief analyses how the Ukrainian military has outperformed a much larger and initially better-equipped Russian military. It makes three main arguments: the war has become a war of attrition characterized by dug-in forces and high casualties; Ukraine’s innovations are bottom up, with a military environment encouraging junior officers to seek innovation; but innovation will not be sufficient to outweigh the material needs of the Ukrainian military.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
This snapshot reviews Ukraine’s call for fighter aircraft and the role of air defence systems in the war.
The German Marshall Fund
One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, three western illusions have collapsed
The article highlights the fall of the western illusions regarding economic and energy independence; certainty of a short war; and the fact that Russia would become an isolated pariah state. It argues that Europe should rethink its geopolitical strategy, increase the ownership of the war and strengthen its territorial defence capabilities, its economic resilience, and avoid exposing grey geographical areas (like Moldova) to the risk of Russian destabilization.
Open Society Foundations
A year in: turning the tide in Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine
This analysis provides recommendations for policymakers to help Ukraine win the war. These include increasing financial support so that Ukraine’s economy can recover, strengthening political support to hold Russia accountable for its crimes, and laying a solid foundation for post-war reconstruction and accession to the EU.
Atlantic Council
Ukraine’s women are playing a key role in the fight against Russia
This article highlights the prominence of the country’s women. From frontline soldiers to unofficial ambassadors, Ukrainian women are playing a key role in the struggle to defeat Vladimir Putin.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
The paper describes how well Europe cooperated and how many volunteers took in refugees after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Based on the varying levels of success that different countries have in caring for and integrating refugees, the author outlines recommendations.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Guerre en Ukraine: l’aide aux réfugiés, le bilan un an après
This summary gives an overview of the situation of the refugees from Ukraine in France and in the EU. It also addresses the subject of the reception of refugees in general.
Globsec Policy Institute
The article focuses on the largest and forced displacement since World War II with millions of Ukrainians fleeing abroad. A large percentage of Ukrainian refugees have higher or vocational education qualifications. In certain EU member states, more than half of Ukrainian refugees are estimated to be employed.
Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 created massive cross-border movements out of Ukraine and back into the country. This brief presents a historical comparison of the Ukraine post-invasion migration with other similar situations in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.
Vox Ukraine
Where do Ukrainians want to go? Migration aspirations and destination-country preferences in Ukraine
Since the beginning of the full-scale war one year ago, eight million Ukrainians have left the country. This paper analyses their long-term intentions: how many Ukrainians want to leave the country permanently, and what are their preferred destination countries.
Globsec Policy Institute
The revival of bank crediting in the wartime economy of Ukraine
In wartime, Ukraine could retain the banking system’s stability. However, bank loans have stagnated both in corporate and personal segments. This paper suggests measures to redesign the existing subsidized credit programs and rearrange the banking system to unlock the impediments of market-based credit provision. The revival of market-based crediting should restore the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission and enable the National Bank of Ukraine to be more effective in anti-inflationary control.
Globsec Policy Institute
The promotion of business resilience in wartime and post-war recovery
The resilience of businesses facing wartime risks is the cornerstone of the country’s resilience in a protracted full-scale war. Its strength in the medium- and the long run is based on the adaptive capacity of businesses to wartime challenges, combined with their inclusion in economic turnover. The paper examines the path toward resilience by focusing on macro-level policies, enhancing the institutional framework for businesses to network and supporting the internationalization of businesses.
IDOS – German Institute of Development and Sustainability
Wiederaufbau in der Ukraine: Was die internationale Gemeinschaft jetzt beachten muss
The authors shed light on the main priorities for reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, including Ukraine’s European perspective and the cooperation of international bodies.
Centre for European Policy Studies
How successful have Western sanctions against Russia actually been?
The sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU and other Western economies primarily targeted its economy to weaken its ability to finance the war. Although the adverse impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy is evident, the damage has not yet been large enough to end the war, claims the report. On the one hand, the lack of cooperation at global level has diluted the impact of sanctions. On the other, Russia has moved to reduce its dependence on the US dollar, hence reducing the sanctions’ overall effectiveness.
Observer Research Foundation
The Ukraine war, sanctions, and the resilient Russian economy
Russia is now the world’s most heavily sanctioned country, according to US officials, with sanctions imposed mostly through executive orders. This article attempts to explain the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of such a comprehensive and unprecedented sanctions regime.
LSE Ideas
The energy crisis requires a military solution that compels NATO to spend like Estonia
The authors focus on the intimate relationship between the Russia-Ukraine war and the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. They argue that to solve the energy crisis, NATO and its allies need to “spend like Estonia.” Such an approach could help Ukraine to decisively win the war in 2023, and it would help to avert a potential energy crisis during the next winter.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies
Rebuilding Ukraine: the gender dimension of the reconstruction process
The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will have to comprehensively address a number of objectives to set the country on a path of stable, sustainable and inclusive growth. This policy paper argues that the principles of “building-back better” need to take the gender dimension into consideration.
The Brookings Institution
2023 could be a decisive year for the future of Ukraine, the West, and global order and security – for better, but also for worse. Brookings scholars examine the lessons of the first year of Russia’s war against Ukraine and look ahead to coming challenges.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
El ciberespacio en tiempos de guerra: la IT army ucraniana
For the first time ever, it has been possible to study cyberwarfare as part of a greater conflict. This paper analyses the rapidly created Ukrainian IT army to protect their cyberspace, highlighting, in particular, the necessary level of coordination between professional government personnel, the technology industry and, on occasion, actors that may be considered criminal.
New America
The article claims that the digital revolution is not only transforming how people think about truth, facts, and evidence, but most importantly it is changing the very essence of power and influence. Most importantly in the near term for Ukraine, tech and open-source intelligence is redefining what people mean when talking about frontlines.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik
The authors look at the vulnerabilities of global supply chains to political shocks and seek to put a new focus on the geopolitical risks through over-dependencies on autocracies.
Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies – Centre for European Policy Studies
The impressive EU-Ukraine summits: alongside the inadequate enlargement methodology
President Zelensky`s tireless and dazzling summit diplomacy with Europe over the last two weeks – in Kyiv, London, Paris and Brussels – was supported by big EU contributions to Ukraine’s war effort in all ways but one, that being a failure to reform the EU’s enlargement methodology, which has been stagnating in the Balkans. This short piece argues that without this reform the EU, alongside Ukraine, may lose the peace.
European Centre for Development Policy Management
Six days after the EU-AU summit ended last year, Russia invaded Ukraine. According to the article, the EU is struggling with Africa’s lack of unequivocal support for the West’s efforts, including at the UN, to condemn Russia. For many African countries, this expectation feels misplaced – if not offensive. For them, the EU’s actions following the Russian war in Ukraine show the double standards of Europe when it comes to efforts against military aggression and peace negotiations.
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
This study measures the interconnectivity between the EU and its neighbouring countries and compares these interconnections with those of the EU’s peers and rivals: the US, China, and Russia. It also argues that the EU should reinvigorate its partnership with the US (while also growing more prepared to stand alone), strike the right balance with China, and continue to decouple from Russia.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Zeitenwende for Europe: public perceptions before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This report outlines the shift in public opinion in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, specifically in Germany, France, Poland, and Latvia. It concludes that the results of the survey provide a grim picture of heightened concerns and fears, that the war brought threat perceptions among the polled countries closer together, but that there are still notable differences, especially along East-West lines, which may complicate the formulation of a common EU security policy.
Globsec Policy Institute
This brief analyses the concept of Central Europe, a new geopolitical reality and gives some recommendations in that direction if Ukraine survives as an independent state.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The war against Ukraine and Russia’s position in Europe’s security order
Russia’s aggressions against its neighbours since 2008 – first Georgia, then Ukraine twice – impel the urgent reconstruction of European security. The paper analyses how in Ukraine, Russia has unilaterally, and unprovokedly, violated or broken at least eight major international treaties and accords, ranging from the 1994 Budapest memorandum to the 1968 non-proliferation treaty.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Italy’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
In line with the EU’s policy, the brief notes that former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have taken a strong stance in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine by firmly condemning the invasion and offering their full support for Kyiv’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The war against Ukraine and its lessons for NATO militaries: food for thought
The article conveys the message that the conventional war fought on the European continent between two large countries, including a nuclear power, is obviously a historical watershed for NATO and the whole Euro-Atlantic area, whose strategic implications are yet to be fully assessed.
Observer Research Foundation
How the Ukraine crisis changed Europe
The critical energy and economic infrastructure of the country are devastated. For Europe, Russian actions have strengthened the member states’ unity, revived and expanded NATO, and, more importantly, has led the Union to take some unprecedented decisions. This article highlights five key policy decisions taken by the EU in the past year.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
In the middle of Zeitenwende: change and continuity of public attitudes in Germany
This report outlines German public opinion in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In particular, citizens were questioned regarding topics like their main personal concerns, Germany’s military spending, Ukrainian NATO and EU membership, or Germany’s foreign policy. The authors conclude that the Zeitenwende has undoubtedly started to manifest itself not only in politics but also in the minds of Germans.
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
The paper looks at how Putin’s authoritarian regime is transforming into a state where the war in Ukraine and the conflict with the West are becoming the basis of its legitimacy. The official discourse has become radicalized, and tensions are appearing within the regime. The paper argues that both the regime’s consolidation around Putin’s war policy and public opinion are dependent upon Russia’s military successes.
Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations
This paper provides an analysis of Russian public opinion in the face of the Ukraine war, considering the preparations for a renewed spring offensive that will determine the outcome of the Ukraine war and the future of Putinism.
Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
One year on, who is funding Russia’s war in Ukraine?
Russia’s illegal and brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine started a year ago. Russia’s fossil fuel revenues have continued to enable the war even though they have declined. This briefing highlights how Russia’s fossil fuel revenues have decreased, what the impact of the recent sanctions has been on Russia’s revenues, and the leverage and options Ukraine’s allies have to further starve the Kremlin of fossil fuel revenues.
Österreichische Institut für Internationale Politik (Austrian Institute for International Affairs)
The key question is whether China will escalate supplies to meet Russia’s war needs, even as Russia’s war effort stumbles and Western nations step up their support for Kyiv. Will Beijing deliver more and new tech and parts? Will it supply Russia with complete weapons systems and ammunition? This article attempts to provide an initial prognosis. It draws on three key trends in recent debates on Beijing-Moscow ties in China’s foreign policy community.
German Institute of Development and Sustainability
Wiederaufbau in der Ukraine: was die internationale Gemeinschaft jetzt beachten muss
This brief states that the rebuilding of Ukraine starts now and the EU has to contribute. It further outlines which factors will be most relevant for this effort to succeed, taking into account the instability due to the still ongoing war and the lessons learnt from past rebuilding efforts such as in Iraq.
Carnegie Europe
After Russia’s war against Ukraine: what kind of world order?
The article analyses the current trends based on strategic documents. It highlights the urgency of addressing transnational issues such as climate change.
Rand Corporation
Consequences of the war in Ukraine
One year ago, Russian ground forces, following a lengthy military build-up, invaded Ukraine. They came from Belarus in the north, Russian territory in the east, and Russian-occupied Crimea in the south. Today, the war continues, with no clear end in sight. How does this end, asks the author?
Centre for Eastern studies
More independence, less fear: Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine
The article looks at the process of curbing Russian influence in Moldova in the context of Russia’s war which has led to a significant acceleration of dismantling the legal, institutional and economic ties between the two countries.
Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission
The Russian aggression against Ukraine has affected the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a delicate manner from political, economic, and social perspectives. The brief analyses various reactions of MENA states to the Russian-Ukrainian war by the end of 2022. It concludes with recommendations for the EU to better manoeuvre in the MENA region in this era of intensifying great power rivalry.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
A hesitant hemisphere: how Latin America has been shaped by the war in Ukraine
Latin America’s principle of non-intervention in the affairs of another country remains potent today, with many abstentions from the UN resolution for the aggression against Ukraine and Ukrainian support rejections, even from all three major non-NATO allies in the region. This article provides an overview of the stance of different Latina America countries towards the Ukraine war and what the war in Ukraine means for them.
Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
This analysis, taking its cue from the recent Ukraine resolution vote at the UN General Assembly, reports on the global perspectives of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine one year after the full-scale invasion.
Vox Ukraine
The driving factors behind UN votes on Russia’s Ukraine invasion
This research studies the reasons behind certain countries voting in favour of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly’s first emergency session. It identifies several common factors significantly impacting the probability of voting in favour of Russia.
Rand Corporation
What does Russia’s war on Ukraine mean for the international order?
The author claims that the war has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. He also highlights the West’s role as a major protector of the democratic world and Ukraine’s advantages as a result of three decades of democratic development.
The Institute for National Security Studies
One year into the war in Ukraine: Israel’s preparedness for the changing aerial threat
According to the article, the war in Ukraine is an opportunity for countries that are liable to face similar scenarios to study and prepare for such eventualities. Substantial challenges require an in-depth understanding of the change and rapid, efficient adaptation of Israeli preparations for any future threat situation.
Observer Research Foundation
Lessons from the Ukraine-Russia conflict
This note analyses two distinct sets of lessons to be drawn from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One set of lessons pertains to battlefield tactics, while the other is about strategic war lessons.
Peace Research Institute Oslo
Russia-Ukraine war compels Japan to reassess China challenge, shift course on security
The author discusses Russia’s military presence in Asia, which is deeply curtailed as most of its conventional capabilities are redeployed to the Donbas front in Ukraine, the behaviour of maverick North Korea which has become more reckless and China’s policy which has become less predictable and more assertive.
Peace Research Institute Oslo
China’s plan for Ukraine is no plan at all
On February 24, one year after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, China released a paper on “China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis” in which exposes 12 points about useful insights into China’s own perception about its role in the international arena as well as its positioning with respect to global dynamics of power. According to this brief, China’s position paper will not contribute to peace in Ukraine, but it does offer useful insights into how Beijing conceives of its global role.
Observer Research Foundation
The paper describes how the Ukraine conflict provided the Communist Party of China with a great opportunity to closely examine how modern wars are waged and its implications with regard to Taiwan.
Observer Research Foundation
Ukraine-Russia conflict: impact on South Asia
The article claims the Ukraine crisis has exacerbated the economic turmoil in the South Asian economies. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has thrown the energy markets into a crisis in several Global South nations. In addition, the supply cuts by edible-oil exporting countries, alongside the rise in fuel prices, have led to a surge in food prices, making food security a primary concern, especially for the vulnerable sections of society.