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OECD: Global action could nearly eliminate plastic pollution by 2040

Oct 3, 2024 , ,
pollution, environment, plastic
Turtle at a beach polluted by plastic litter. Illustration by TheDigitalArtist on Pixabay

Paris, 2 October 2024

Also available in: Français

Comprehensive global policies addressing the entire plastics lifecycle can reduce plastic leakage into the environment by 96% by 2040, according to a new OECD report. By implementing a mix of policies – from enhancing plastic waste management and recycling, to curbing plastic use and waste – countries can achieve significant environmental benefits and economic savings compared to less balanced strategies.

Without stronger policies, plastics production and use are projected to increase by 70%, from 435 million tonnes (Mt) in 2020 to 736 Mt in 2040, with only 6% of plastics coming from recycled sources. In parallel, mismanaged plastic waste, i.e., plastics that at end of life are dumped, inadequately disposed of or littered, will increase by 50% (from 81 Mt annually in 2020 to 119 Mt annually in 2040). Leakage of mismanaged plastics into the environment, including their release into rivers, oceans, and land, will increase by 40%.

Ahead of a critical round of UN talks in November to agree a legally binding treaty on plastic pollution, the OECD report Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040 evaluates the environmental and economic implications of strategies to reduce and ultimately end plastic pollution.

“Our analysis shows that ambitious policies across the entire plastics lifecycle, if implemented globally, could nearly eliminate plastic pollution by 2040,” OECD Environment Director Jo Tyndall said. “This approach not only improves waste collection, treatment and recycling, but also reduces plastic production and demand, and promotes circular design.”

Partial solutions to plastics pollution will not solve the problem. Focusing solely on waste management without curbing production and demand would reduce plastic leakage to the environment by only 55% compared to business as usual by 2040. If plastic waste is better managed but without dedicated policies to reduce waste volumes, the costs of doing so will significantly increase, making it progressively more difficult for countries to eliminate plastic leakage. Similarly, policy packages with partial geographical coverage or with limited stringency would also fail to reduce plastics use, waste and leakage below 2020 levels.

OECD projections indicate that policies targeting all stages of the lifecycle, while resulting in a small drop (0.5%) in global GDP, are more cost-efficient compared to strategies focused solely on waste management. The latter would lead to an even larger 0.8% GDP loss by 2040. Developing countries and those with less advanced waste management systems, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, are projected to face the greatest macroeconomic costs.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, global investment needs for plastic waste management are expected to reach USD 2.1 trillion between 2020 and 2040. Policies that address the entire plastics lifecycle would limit additional investments in waste management infrastructure – on top of business as usual – to USD 50 billion between 2020 and 2040. Cost increases are limited, due to the redirection of investment flows towards improved sorting and recycling and away from less advanced options. Conversely, should countries seek to eliminate plastic leakage by focusing on waste management alone, costs will be higher. Under such a scenario, an additional USD 300 billion would be required between 2020 and 2040 on top of business-as-usual investments.

To support a whole-of-lifecycle approach, the OECD report calls for policies such as plastic and packaging taxes, eco-design criteria and product standards, bans on selected single-use plastics and Extended Producer Responsibility schemes for packaging and durables that could encourage a more sustainable plastics economy.

The report also recognises that additional interventions will be needed to comprehensively tackle other aspects of plastic pollution, such as to mitigate risks related to microplastic pollution, chemicals of concern, plastics-related greenhouse gas emissions and legacy pollution.

Read the digital report and the policy highlights to discover more.

Read more about OECD work on plastics.

 

OECD Report: Policy Scenarios for Eliminating Plastic Pollution by 2040

2 October 2024

Available in:

Countries around the world are at a critical juncture in the battle against plastic pollution.

This OECD report, published as countries near the final stages of negotiations to establish a global plastics treaty, models alternative policy scenarios honing in on different areas for action. This includes curbing production and demand, promoting eco-design, enhancing recycling and closing leakage pathways. It provides insights into the potential environmental benefits and economic consequences of different levels of ambition towards ending plastic pollution by 2040, according to which countries act, how stringent policies are and what stages of the plastics lifecycle they cover.

Read the press release

Global growth in plastics production and use will continue to outpace population growth

Plastics production doubled between 2000 and 2019, from 234 to 460 million tonnes (Mt). Without more ambitious policies, the amount of plastics produced around the world will continue to rise. Global production and use of plastics is set to reach 736 million tonnes by 2040, up 70% from 435 Mt in 2020. It will continue to outpace global population growth as demand for plastics is projected to remain high and further increase in OECD countries. Fast growth is similarly expected in emerging economies in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

Recycled plastics will continue to make up a mere 6% of all plastics produced in 2040. As plastic volumes balloon, mismanaged waste will increase by 38% and plastic leakage to the environment by 50% by 2040 (from 2020 levels), threatening ecosystems and the people that depend on them.

Partial measures will fail to curb plastic pollution

There are a range of policies that countries can use to eliminate plastic leakage. Strategies that focus on globally enhancing waste management alone without slowing down waste generation will likely fail to eliminate plastic leakage. Similarly, the implementation of stringent policies only in advanced economies, or low policy stringency globally across the plastics lifecycle, will only marginally affect plastic leakage.

Adopting comprehensive, stringent policies in all countries can nearly eliminate plastic leakage by 2040

Ambitious global policy action across the plastics lifecycle (to curb production and demand, design for circularity, enhance recycling and close leakage pathways) can decouple economic growth from plastics use, quadruple the average global recycling rate (from 9.5% in 2020 to 42% in 2040) and nearly end the leakage of plastic waste to the environment (96% reduction from business as usual) by 2040.

Curbing demand for plastics will limit the costs of waste collection

The most ambitious policy scenario targets all phases of the plastics lifecycle, limiting the amount of plastics entering the economy. Reducing plastics demand will ultimately moderate the cost of managing its waste and result in less plastic leakage to the environment. Waste reduction policies and additional investments in waste sorting and recycling could limit additional costs to end plastic leakage to only USD 50 billion by 2040, on top of business-as-usual costs (USD 2.1 trillion between 2020 and 2040). Strategies that rely on more lenient policies will be more costly or reap fewer rewards.

Developing countries will shoulder the greatest economic costs as a share of GDP

The implementation of stringent global policy action along the plastics lifecycle is projected to incur a 0.5% global GDP loss in 2040 compared to business as usual. Costs will be higher in non-OECD countries, especially in those that will need to invest more to upgrade their waste management systems. Sub-Saharan Africa will bear the largest costs (1.5% GDP loss compared to business as usual). These costs must be considered relative to the much higher costs of inaction and the environmental benefits of acting.

What can governments do?
  1. Accelerate action to slow plastic flows and foster eco-design 
  • Global targets are needed to improve product design, phase out chemicals of concern and eliminate problematic plastics. Incentives, infrastructure investments and harmonised standards can likewise help scale up systems to keep plastics in use for longer before they are disposed of.
  1. Support environmentally sound waste management in all regions  
  • To eliminate mismanaged waste, improvements are needed in waste collection, sorting and recycling systems. This includes additional investments in innovation to improve recycling yields and quality. Fast-growing countries with less advanced waste management systems will need to make the greatest changes. Such countries can consider integrating the informal sector in waste systems, leveraging Extended Producer Responsibility schemes and establishing waste collection targets.
  1. Implement interventions to tackle other aspects of plastic pollution
  • Plastic leakage is one important component of plastic pollution. Beyond this, targeted interventions are also required to mitigate risks associated with microplastic pollution (plastics <5mm in diameter), legacy plastic pollution and plastics-related greenhouse gas emissions. This can include investments to improve the design of tyres, vehicles, roads, paints and textiles [microplastics], remediation interventions and clean-up campaigns [legacy pollution] and targeted climate mitigation policies [greenhouse gas emissions].
  1. Ensure adequate means of implementation and financing
  • Developing countries will need additional support to offset investment costs required for waste prevention, collection and treatment. Extended Producer Responsibility schemes could help cover the costs of separated waste collection, sorting and recycling. In tandem, developed countries can scale up Official Development Assistance and leverage additional sources of private sector finance.
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