IPCC Chair’s remarks during the opening of the Earth Information Day event at COP29

Check against delivery.

Dear delegates, Ladies and Gentlemen

As the Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the IPCC – I am pleased to make a few remarks at the opening session of Earth Information Day to speak about the connection between Earth Observations and the IPCC.

As the impacts of climate change become increasingly visible, Earth observation plays a foundational role in advancing climate science, which is at the core of IPCC assessments.

In the Sixth Assessment Cycle which concluded 18 months ago, our Working Group I report on the physical science basis included chapters on: the Changing State of the Climate System; the Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity; and Human Influence on the Climate System; as well as several others, all of which were driven by observational data. Observation is one of the pillars on which rests our striking conclusion that “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land”.

Yet, Earth Observation goes beyond Working I on the physical science basis; it is also relevant for: Working II on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; Working Group III on the mitigation of climate change; and, the Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories, or the TFI.

The scoping meeting for the Seventh Assessment Cycle which will take place in Malaysia next month will propose the outlines of the three Working Group reports, to be agreed by governments in February 2025.  While ahead of the scoping meeting it is not possible to talk about the content of the reports, assuredly, it is certain that Earth Observation will play a critical role in the assessed literature.

Turning to Working Group II, observation systems can support vulnerable regions and communities, particularly in coastal regions, and address developments in land use, agriculture, and human settlement. The upcoming IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities, already scoped, will cover Urban observation and modelling tools for monitoring and evaluation for sectors and unaccounted sources within a chapter on Actions and solutions to reduce urban risks and emissions. Local-scale studies, in-situ and remotely sensed observations, high-resolution model outputs, and databases providing city-relevant data on emissions, impacts and hazards are available to support this report.

Importantly, Working Group II will also produce revised and updated technical guidelines on impacts and adaptation, including adaptation indicators, metrics and methodologies. This will help progress work on the Global Goal on Adaptation. Earth Observation can indeed play a unique role in monitoring progress. When the revised and updated guidelines are scoped at next month’s meeting in Malaysia, giving consideration to the observability of adaptation indicators and metrics will be essential. And Earth Observation also underpins Early Warning Systems which play a critical role in effective adaptation strategies.

Turning to the world of emission inventories and mitigation, the TFI will produce a Methodology report on short-lived climate forcers by late 2027. This report will cover nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, non-methane volatile organic compounds, sulphur dioxide, ammonia, black carbon and organic carbon, as well as primary particulate matter relevant for radiative forcing, though not methane. Earth observation has a potentially critical role to -play in monitoring emissions of short-lived climate forcers. The Methodology Report will be developed in the context of recent improvements in observations of the composition of the atmosphere through expansions of existing surface observation and through in situ measurements such as aircraft campaigns.

In September 2022 the IPCC convened an Expert Meeting on The Use of Atmospheric Observation Data in Emission Inventories.  It considered: the potential for using atmospheric observations to verify GHG inventories; comparisons of national inventories and reverse-modelled emission estimates based on atmospheric observations that have led to improvements in bottom-up inventories; emerging observational datasets that could be used to test and verify IPCC default emission factors; and spatial and temporal gridding of national greenhouse gas emission inventories to allow comparison with atmospheric observation data. The very useful report of the Expert meeting is available on the TFI website. This is an emerging area and will receive continuing attention within IPCC.

The TFI has also been mandated by the Panel to produce a Methodology Report on Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies, and Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage by late 2027. The role of Earth observations in estimating relevant emissions and removals is within its scope.

To conclude, it is obviously beyond IPCC’s remit to conduct Earth Observation, but Earth Observation activities remain intimately connected to IPCC’s core mission.

I thank you for the opportunity to make a few remarks here today and look forward to further engagement.

Thank you.