Published 24 May 2023
Introduction
Up until about a year ago, Moldova, a country situated to the north-west of the Black Sea sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, did not attract much attention. On the rare occasions when it made the global headlines it was either because of the massive banking fraud of 2014 dubbed ‘the theft of the century’ or because of the separatist region Transnistria, known as one of the ‘dark tourism’ destinations in eastern Europe. However, this state of affairs changed in 2022 in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Its status as a frontline state endowed Moldova with a new geopolitical significance in the regional and wider European security context.
Table of contents
The country’s geographical proximity to the war zone raised the risk of a spillover of violence to Moldova, a scenario which would make Ukraine’s position along its southern border more precarious. The re-escalation of the dormant conflict in Transnistria, which borders Ukraine, suddenly became a dangerous possibility. If Moldova were to be dragged into the vortex of war then security threats would proliferate across the EU’s eastern flank. On the positive side, the country’s role in accommodating a massive influx of refugees from Ukraine as well as in providing transport corridors to facilitate the transit of Ukrainian grain to global markets has also put Moldova in the international spotlight. Last but not least, its long border with Ukraine makes Moldova a prospective transport hub in post-war reconstruction efforts. Clearly, Europe has an important stake in a secure and stable Moldova.
This Brief explores Moldova’s efforts to strengthen its security and resilience in the shadow of Russia’s war on Ukraine. It begins with an overview of how the country’s security landscape has changed over the last year. The Brief then looks at the Moldovan authorities’ responses to both military and non-military threats. It follows with a future-oriented focus on Moldova’s critical security vulnerabilities and how these could be addressed. Since the EU has played a powerful stabilising role in Moldova over the last year, the Brief concludes with recommendations on how it could support the country’s resilience going forward.