26 March 2021
This is a non-exhaustive collection of Think Tanks’ reports on COVID-19, covering the period from March 2020 onwards, which is regularly updated:
BRUEGEL
Covid-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies
This paper assesses Covid-19 credit-support programmes in five of the largest European economies (besides Russia) in 2020: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. It focuses on two aspects: how countries have dealt with the many trade-offs that emerged in designing and implementing the programmes; and what explains the differentiated usage of the facilities in the examined countries, as well as its levelling off in the second half of 2020.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS – BERLIN
Everything will be different: how the pandemic is changing EU economic governance
The pandemic will completely shake up the EU‘s economic governance. Taken together, the lessons from the pandemic will render the old pre-pandemic eurozone reform agenda obsolete. The authors call for a new reform agenda for EU economic governance that can deliver tangible results before the next EU long-term budget will be negotiated.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Economic assessment of the euro area: winter 2020/2021
This Euroframe report presents an assessment of the economic outlook for 2021 and 2022, focused on the euro area and based on a synopsis of the forecasts of Euroframe institutes. Overall, the institutes expect that the currently still depressed activity will progressively recover in the course of this year and next, supported by the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines. The focus section provides a review of labour market developments and policy reactions to the crisis.
CHATHAM HOUSE – THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Managing global liquidity through Covid-19 and beyond
This briefing explores how policy responses to the Covid-19 economic shock have thus far prevented a systemic, global liquidity crunch. It outlines several policy areas that could benefit from international cooperation as the economic challenges associated with the pandemic evolve, and presents four recommendations for action.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
The Covid-19 pandemic shaped 2020 in the Western Balkans. It exacerbated all structural problems and dilemmas that were already visible in the region. The article focuses on current political and social changes in the Covid-19 year 2020, including phenomena such as political exploitation of the crisis, elections and its effects, spreading conspiracy theories or political alternatives to the status quo.
CHATHAM HOUSE – THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
This paper examines the fiscal challenges policymakers across the globe face in the context of Covid-19. It makes the case for international policy coordination with the support of the international financial institutions, to ensure the transition does not produce economic imbalances that could imperil a sustainable recovery. It articulates a set of principles to guide fiscal decision-making and proposes that these should inform G7 and G20 finance ministers’ deliberations this year.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Post Covid-19 value chains: options for reshoring production back to Europe in a globalised economy
The study discusses economic and political justifications for reshoring with respect to security of supply concerns and the debate on the EU’s strategic autonomy. With reshoring pre-Covid-19 having remained an empirical phenomenon of limited significance, potential for reshoring at the sector and global value chains level are assessed in the light of recent economic changes, the digital transformation and the changing geopolitical environment.
CHATHAM HOUSE – THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The Covid-19 pandemic and trends in technology
Focusing on the dynamics between governments and big tech, on cybercrime, and on disinformation and fake news, this paper examines some of the risks that have been highlighted and aggravated as societies have transitioned at speed to a more virtual way of living. The past year experience has underscored that tech governance must be based on human-centric values that protect the rights of individuals but also work towards a public good.
EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE
Non-standard workers and the self-employed in the EU: social protection during the Covid-19 pandemic
This study maps key social protection measures taken during the pandemic from the perspective of fragmentation of labour market statuses, notably by focusing on non-standard workers and the self-employed. The analysis focuses on the EU 27 member states, covering the period from the beginning of the lockdown measures (for most countries at the beginning of March 2020) until 31 December 2020.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
Covid-19 and Europe-wide income disparities: the pandemic stopped the previous decline of inequality
This paper focuses exclusively on income inequality in the EU member states. It considers the disposable income i.e. market income minus taxes plus transfers received (e.g. pensions).
INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY)
Health and public communication in the era of conspiracy theories
This report addresses public health communication in the era of widespread conspiracy theories. It focuses on the vaccination against Covid-19 and presents the most important attributes of a communication campaign that would challenge disinformation surrounding the vaccination.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Cultural and creative sectors in post Covid-19 Europe
Cultural and creative sectors (CCS) have been hit hard by the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. This study analyses the so far effects of the crisis on the CCS, as well as the policy responses that are formulated to support the sectors. Policy recommendations are formulated to further improve the resilience of the CCS in Europe in the medium and longer term.
GERMAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE / DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK
Covid-19 and conservation: crisis response strategies that benefit people and nature
This paper suggests strategies to alleviate the pandemic’s adverse effects on conservation in the Global South. Many zoonoses originate there, and livelihoods are strongly dependent on natural resources. The paper considers the pandemic’s overarching economic implications for protected and other conserved areas, and specific ramifications for the tourism and wildlife trade sectors, which are closely related to these areas.
GERMAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE / DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK
The covid-19 pandemic and structural transformation in Africa: evidence for action
This study analyses how strengths and weaknesses of economic, societal, political and environmental structures played out during the Covid-19 crisis in Africa since March 2020. Its main aim is to improve evidence on the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic on African countries and, based on that evidence, identify policy implications and formulate recommendations.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
The European Union in the Covid-19 storm: economic, political and stability challenges
This paper explores the impact of the pandemic on the EU’s economic and political resilience. It conveys some key messages for instance that the quality of governance in different EU countries affected their resilience to the initial Covid-19 shock and will be key for the success of the EU-directed policy responses.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
The Visegrád countries: coronavirus pandemic, EU transfers, and their impact on Austria
The Visegrád economies have been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, especially its second wave. In response, macroeconomic policies have been markedly relaxed, with fiscal stimulus packages reaching up to 14% of GDP in Poland and Czechia. The projected recovery of the Visegrád economies from 2021 onwards should be significantly helped by the massive inflow of EU transfers, particularly from the newly established Next Generation EU recovery fund.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Under pressure: Nordic-Baltic cooperation during the Covid-19 crisis
The pandemic crisis revealed the known political undercurrents of the Nordic-Baltic region and the world. The Baltic countries came together in a time of need, cooperation with the Nordic countries was solely pragmatic, regional multilateral cooperation fell down, and China’s growing influence and US unwillingness to step up became clear. According to the author, nurturing good relations still continues to be the most important and valuable instrument in the foreign-policy toolbox.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Krankenhausstrukturen und Steuerung der Kapazitäten in der Corona-Pandemie: Ein Ländervergleich
This study compares the Covid-19 response of healthcare systems (Denmark, Israel, Spain, Sweden, Germany) from an angle that was hitherto not analysed in detail: the reserved hospital structures and governing of capacities in stationary care during the crisis.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS (NOTRE EUROPE)
Passeport vaccinal européen ? Un débat salutaire
As the whole world continues to fight against the Covid-19 epidemic, the Greek Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, has suggested establishing in Europe a vaccination passport, in the form of a standard certificate, allowing a citizen to certify that they are immune. Welcomed by several countries, the proposal is also the subject of much criticism.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
Addressing the Covid-19 pandemic: vaccination efforts in FREE network countries
There are great expectations that vaccinations will enable a return to normality from Covid-19. However, there is massive variation in vaccination efforts, vaccine access, and attitudes to vaccination in the population across countries. This brief compares the situation in a number of countries in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, the Caucasus region, and Sweden.
TÆNKETANKEN EUROPA
Fra EU’s vaccinestrategi til det globale vaccinediplomati
In the spring of 2020, the vaccine issue in the EU was both about ensuring access to vaccines to the people of Europe and get vaccines out to the poorest countries in the world, so that the pandemic could be combated in the best possible way. In the winter of 2021, the vaccine issue is no longer about the global perspective, but solely about EU approvals, procurement and roll-out of vaccines and member states’ support to a common EU strategy, claims the paper.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Covid-19: geopolítica de la vacuna, un arma para la seguridad global
In the face of the coronavirus crisis, which has blocked mobility and knocked out the global economy, the vaccine is targeted as the main exit remedy. Competition between countries for the commitment of the first doses has been an incomparable advantage for pharmaceutical companies and, as the article argues, vaccines have become yet another weapon in the geopolitical battle.
MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE
The EU and several of its member states have in recent years launched policies designed to increase the demand for and supply of skilled workers in Europe. This brief explores how the pandemic is shaping the demand for workers and skills in the EU, and how policymakers can respond to these trends.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
Pollution and the Covid-19 pandemic: air quality in Eastern Europe
The Covid-19 pandemic has drawn attention to a pre-existing threat to global health: the quality of air in cities around the world. Prolonged exposure to air pollution has been found to increase the mortality rate of Covid-19. This is a particular concern for much of Eastern Europe, where emissions regularly exceed safe levels. This brief analyses recent data on air quality in the region and the factors that explain a persistent East-West divide in pollution in Europe.
MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE
Rewiring migrant returns and reintegration after the Covid-19 shock
Since the Covid-19 pandemic began, millions of migrants have returned to their countries of origin, either having lost jobs abroad or because they wished to reunite with their families in these difficult times. This brief examines how the pandemic has affected return, reception, and reintegration policies and practices in countries around the world.
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT/UNITED CITIES AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS/UN-HABITAT
The study notes that despite the acute pressure cities are experiencing and will continue to experience, many local authorities proactively push inclusive strategies for host communities, migrants and refugees in line with central goals of the global compact for migration and the global compact on refugees.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
El liderazgo en tiempos de pandemia: cambios y nuevas tendencias para el siglo XXI
The Covid-19 crisis has generated changes and new trends in leadership: collaborative leadership has been replaced by competitive leadership, the major world powers have not exercised the usual global leadership and international organizations have provided very timid guidance. However, the author believes there is hope for the EU to strengthen its role to overcome the aftermath of Covid-19.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
Reshaping trade ties with China in the aftermath of Covid-19
The effects of travel bans, and the disruption of production and shipping due to Covid-19 quickly rippled through global production and supply chains. The European Commission recommends diversifying supplies to mitigate risks, while preserving international competition, but defending the EU market against unfair trade practices.
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
Aspectos económicos de la crisis del Covid-19 – Boletín de seguimiento no. 9
The document collects a variety of indicators of the effects of the pandemic on economic activity, it analyses and assesses the main economic measures taken in the recent weeks and provides a study of some aspects of the recent developments in the labour market.
BRUEGEL
The nonsense of Next Generation EU net balance calculations
The estimation of payments from the EU’s Covid-19 economic recovery fund, Next Generation EU (NGEU), to each EU country in 2021-2026 involves uncertainties, yet the overall magnitudes can be estimated with a reasonable degree of precision. The author suggests instead of concentrating on net balances, NGEU should help to focus more on effective, efficient and fair ways of spending EU money and the long-term benefits countries can derive from it.
TERRA NOVA
Le grand paradoxe – ou pourquoi le règne du cash est loin de s’achever
Despite fears linked to the Covid-19 pandemic and to the transmission of the virus by cash, largely unfounded, the circulation of cash has seen a sharp increase in 2020: + 10% for the euro and + 15% for the dollar. This dynamic is probably linked to a hoarding phenomenon. Contrary to popular belief, the health crisis has sparked a real “cash rush”.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Covid-19 will have long-term structural consequences: transformation of strategies at national and European level and in international relations. The paper examines this situation by analysing both the measures taken by the EU and the international environment.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
Taking stock of regional democratic trends in Europe before and during the Covid-19 pandemic
Providing an overview of the state of democracy in Europe at the end of 2019, prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, this brief assesses some of the preliminary impacts that the pandemic has had on democracy in the region in the last 10 months.
EUROPEAN THINK TANKS GROUP
The consequences of Covid-19 will shape European policies and politics for years to come. Europe is lacking behind particularly on the Sustainable Development Goals related to agriculture, climate change and biodiversity and in strengthening convergence of living standards. The pandemic has made these SDGs even more difficult to achieve by 2030.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION) / SOCIAL EUROPE PUBLISHING
The coronavirus crisis and the welfare state
The coronavirus crisis has highlighted the flaws in European welfare states, which can spur their renewal and reinforcement after decades of cuts and privatisation. This report addresses what a 21st-century welfare state should look like for all of Europe. Underpinning all these considerations is a vision of a welfare state which provides equal autonomy for all to pursue their life goals, in solidarity with others.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT KÖLN
The German government and the European Commission have had to take a lot of criticism about their vaccine procurement strategy to contain the corona pandemic. Due to the danger of virus mutations, increased political involvement in boosting vaccine production is called for. This paper explores possible measures of government participation and side effects thereof.
CORPORATE EUROPE OBSERVATORY
From hospitals to care homes, the evidence is mounting that outsourcing and private provision of healthcare has significantly degraded EU member states’ capacity to deal effectively with Covid-19. The paper suggests that EU must reject the private sector lobbyists now whispering in its ear, and reverse course on the kind of economic governance which has accelerated healthcare liberalisation, instead putting public provision at the centre of its strategy.
LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE SAFE – SUSTAINABLE ARCHITECTURE FOR FINANCE IN EUROPE
Motivated beliefs and the elderly’s compliance with Covid-19 measures
This note shows that motivated beliefs can explain why the elderly do not comply better with Covid-19 measures than age groups less threatened by the disease. The argument is that compliance might reveal having a weak constitution, thereby increasing anxiety. If people receive utility from believing to be strong, there can exist a separating equilibrium in which only weak people comply with the Covid-19 measures.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
El impacto del Covid-19: la digitalización como bien común
The pandemic has accelerated and stressed the importance of digitisation and connectivity. The author discusses the need to consider digitisation as a common, public or collective good (in its economic, not legal, sense) that will help bridge the various gaps widened with Covid-19 in societies and between societies.
RAND EUROPE
A comparison of national and international approaches to Covid-19-related measures
The authors examine measures used in the early stages of the pandemic (December 2019 – May 2020) and find tremendous variability in how different countries and US states measure and report on Covid-19 indicators. They make recommendations for the use and development of measures that would allow for more standardised and valid comparisons.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
El impacto de Covid-19 en la narrativa estratégica internacional
This paper sheds light on the Covid crisis through the strategic narrative, which reflects international communication and political leadership. It shows a comparative perspective of the use of the strategic narrative for the foreign policy objectives and highlights the risks of ‘deinstitutionalisation’ of international communication.
TERRA NOVA
Russia’s policy response to Covid, its economic benefits and human losses
The brief asks what is the impact of the epidemic and why did Putin’s regime choose economy over peoples’ lives? The answer to this question requires understanding the nature of modern Russia’s political system.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
The pandemic of the Covid-19 and its impacts on work and life in South Korea
Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, the ruling party won a landslide victory in the general election in April 2020, due to the government’s swift response to the Covid-19. The Green New Deal, proposed by the government, seems to provide a new vision for Korean society in the post-Covid-19. However, it falls short of a genuinely new provision for the post-Covid-19 pandemic simply because it is an extrapolation of the current rather than a rupture from the current.
FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION POLITIQUE
Souveraineté économique : entre ambitions et réalités
The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a return to the forefront of the question of economic sovereignty, particularly in France. The issue is to know what content to give this notion. In a maximalist sense, economic sovereignty would lead to advocating a return to a certain degree of autarky: in order not to depend on anyone, a country would have to somehow put itself “out of the world”. The authors show that such a policy leads to an impasse and is even almost impossible.
TÆNKETANKEN EUROPA
Konsekvenser for EU’s indre marked af coronakrisens første bølge
The report provides an overall overview of the economic losses, which EU countries have suffered the most, and the barriers in the form of border closures and travel restrictions that arose for citizens and companies when the EU countries closed down in the spring of 2020.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Major differences in the conditions for successful Covid-19 crisis management
Ungleiche Ausgangsbedingungen für erfolgreiches Covid-19-Krisenmanagement
This paper compares the conditions in EU and OECD countries that contribute to Covid-19 crisis management. It finds that the observed countries vary considerably in terms of their pre-crisis socioeconomic conditions and capacity for political reform. These differences are likely to grow as the Covid-19 crisis continues.
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY MANAGEMENT (ECDPM)
Team Europe: up to the challenge?
This brief presents how the Team Europe approach has been applied to date, and explores the prospects, added value and challenges in terms of the EU and member states working better together, enhanced visibility and the possibility of a stronger voice in multilateral fora. The Team Europe approach was born in the context of Covid-19 and was initially conceived as a way to brand European collective support to partner countries in response to the pandemic.
ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES
State aid in the context of the Covid-19 outbreak, including the temporary framework 2020
This paper considers the application of the EU state aid rules in the context of the Covid-19 outbreak. It addresses certain amendments to existing regulations and guidelines, which were adjusted in view of that outbreak. In particular, it analyses cases of aid to compensate undertakings for damage directly caused by an exceptional occurrence such as the Covid-19.
EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE
Social policy in the European Union: state of play 2020
This publication analyses key developments in the EU social agenda during 2019 and describes the initial Covid‑19-driven EU and domestic policies between January and July 2020. By doing this, it aims to contribute to the debate between policymakers, social stakeholders and the research community, while providing accessible information and analysis for practitioners and students of European integration.
WISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUM BERLIN FÜR SOZIALFORSCHUNG (SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTER BERLIN)
The effects that the economic crisis triggered by Covid-19 is having on unemployment could hardly differ more than in the US and Europe. This divergence also applies to the political reactions to it. This essay argues that the European approach promises a more humane and effective solution to the crisis, but only if the EU and its member states find a way to combine short-time work with more forward-looking labor market and social policies.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
In this maelstrom of Covid-19, a kind of miracle has happened: the development with unprecedented speed of several apparently effective vaccines. Two of them based on revolutionary technologies. Alas, we are in a logic of war economy, for which few countries were prepared. The arrival of more contagious and even more dangerous variants has dashed hopes of an end to the crisis in the near future.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Covid-19 vaccination campaigns: the public dimension
This briefing discusses the public opinion on vaccination, the EU action to boost vaccination communication and how international bodies as well as different stakeholder within society strive to optimise Covid-19 vaccine uptake.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Public anxiety over the Covid-19 crisis grew steadily from January 2020 onwards. The pandemic had suddenly become a prevailing theme of politics and decision-making. As Covid-19 dominated public attention, the role of decision-makers came under the spotlight. This paper assesses the role played by decision-makers in the EU, particularly in Finland.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Chinas Gesundheitsdiplomatie in Zeiten von Corona
International cooperation in the health sector has been part of the Belt Road Initiative for more than five years. This paper discusses the measures of Chinese health diplomacy during Covid-19. To counter these Chinese ambitions, it also calls for European involvement with foreign states on a multilateral and bilateral level – especially in view of post-Covid times.
RAND EUROPE
The authors describe why, in light of coronavirus disease, it is more critical than ever to integrate family caregivers into patients’ health care teams and highlight several solutions for accomplishing this goal.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
This brief provides an overview of the state of democracy in Africa and the Middle East at the end of 2019, prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, and then assesses some of the preliminary impacts that the pandemic has had on democracy in the region in the last 10 months.
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY MANAGEMENT
Simmering tensions: the long-term impact of Covid-19 on fragility and conflict in Africa
This note looks at the long-term impact of Covid-19 on fragility and conflict in Africa. Responding to the long-term challenges highlighted by the pandemic will require sustained and concerted efforts, particularly ahead of the vaccination campaign expected to start later this year.
INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT
Coronavirus: no going back to normal
The author suggests that life after the pandemic will not feel like life before. Therefore, it is best that governments acknowledge that and start planning now in order to capture the best that can come out of a very tough period while not raising expectations that life will suddenly snap back to an almost forgotten normal.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
L’Unione europea oltre il trauma: integrazione e solidarietà nell’era post-Brexit e Covid-19
This study analyses the evolution of the concepts of integration and solidarity in the EU starting from the traumatic events that characterized 2020 such as the Covid-19 crisis and Brexit negotiations. The analysis develops along two axes: the concept of differentiated integration in the face of Brexit on the one hand, and that of solidarity in the face of the Covid-19 crisis on the other.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL OF FOREIGN RELATIONS
The crisis that made the European Union: European cohesion in the age of Covid
The pandemic poses a threat to European cohesion by increasing economic divides and undermining trust in the EU and national governments. The brief analyses levels of cohesion across the EU in times of crisis and formulates several recommendations to keep European cohesion strong in years to come.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
The empathy effect: empathy and the Covid-19 pandemic in European public opinion
This report explores the role of empathy and in particular to what extent does empathy in the sense of being sensitive to the fate of other people help us understand people’s willingness to engage in Covid-19-related health behaviour? Does empathy impact people’s views regarding the role that European cooperation should play in the pandemic? The evidence is based on a June 2020 survey and on 13,000 EU citizens interviewed in several EU member states (MS).
SVENSKA INSTITUTET FÖR EUROPAPOLITISKA STUDIER (SWEDISH INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES)
När folkhälsa ställs mot den inre marknaden – coronakrisen utmanar EU
During the corona crisis, several MS have taken exceptional measures with far-reaching consequences for other EU countries. According to the author, the effects clarify the need for a more formal mandate for the EU to make decisions in future crises.
NOTRE EUROPE – JACQUES DELORS INSTITUTE
Europeans facing vaccine hesitancy
This paper analyses the development process of Covid-19 vaccines and how they have been developed so quickly thanks to the enormous financial, human and logistical resources committed. Following the report, the success of the vaccination campaigns rolled out by each of the MS will depend also on citizens’ willingness to have the vaccine.
CATO INSTITUTE
An unnecessary proposal: a WTO waiver of intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines
Several developing countries have asked other members of the WTO to join them in a sweeping waiver of the IP rights relating to corona vaccines. IP rights should never become legal obstacles to ensuring early access to affordable medicines for everyone in the world. But also, in no event should WTO members act in ways that would eliminate the incentives that are essential to inspire the innovations that make new medicines possible.
TERRA NOVA
Focus mass testing: how to overcome low test accuracy ?
Mass testing can be key to managing the pandemic in 2021: avoid a third wave while vaccination is being deployed. PCR tests are very accurate, but cannot be performed at a population-wide scale due to the limited laboratory capacity. On the other hand, antigen tests are widely available, but their lack of accuracy is problematic. To overcome these difficulties, more elaborate mass testing strategies need to be considered.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ESRI)
The contribution of the study is threefold: by measuring the accuracy of risk perceptions and illuminating underlying heuristics; demonstrating how techniques of psychological science can be used to inform interventions during the pandemic; and providing findings with interest beyond the response to Covid-19. The pandemic offers a highly unusual opportunity to measure how well the public can absorb complex risk information.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Internationale Politik unter Pandemie-Bedingungen: Tendenzen und Perspektiven für 2021
Since the beginning of the pandemic, there has been a discussion about whether it is a historical game changer or whether it is merely accelerating the course of history. This study shows that some international trends that were already recognizable before the epidemic have gained speed. But on the whole, there are also breaks in the trend.
INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT
The world of government in 2021
Coronavirus has upended established politics and economics – and toppled some politicians. Governments need to bridge the divisions the crisis has created within countries and within international alliances as they try to plot a route to recovery and seize the opportunities emerging from the upheaval.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
Post-Covid-19 recovery: harnessing the power of investment in sustainable infrastructure
This brief argues that considering the pressure the Covid-19 pandemic has put on public budgets and the opportunity brought by recovery packages, giving greater attention to sustainable infrastructure could help maximise benefits and minimise societal costs.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK (GERMAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE)
Towards more policy advice: maximising the UN’s assets to build back better
In order to effectively assist countries in “building back better” following the pandemic, the UN and its development entities will need to adjust their approach. They need to respond by providing more and higher quality policy advice to governments for dealing with the deep inequalities laid bare by the pandemic worldwide.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
This paper explores the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic on the partnership between Africa and Europe on migration and mobility. It highlights the differences in the approaches of the two blocs, and offers suggestions for policymakers to consider in their negotiations on migration cooperation. These suggestions focus on migration governance, returnees, development, legal pathways to migration and international protection.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION) / GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
The study evaluates inter alia the direct impact of state anti-pandemic restrictions on employment and unemployment in Georgia; and the role of government emergency anti-crisis measures in neutralizing the negative impact of anti-pandemic restrictions on household incomes.
CATO INSTITUTE
Covid-19 and the US fiscal imbalance
Before Covid-19, the US debt burden was large and on an unsustainable path. The pandemic did not substantially alter the projected path of the US fiscal imbalance. The paper outlines that the most effective way to slow the growth of the debt burden is to cut entitlement spending (Medicare) substantially.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
The author claims that during the Covid-19 epidemic in China, the government introduced rigorous pandemic control measures thanks to technological tools such as the digital health code assigned to each citizen. He elaborates on following topics: the health code, the techno-utilitarianism, technology and governance, pervasive technology, and technology and ideology.
INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT
Brexit and coronavirus: economic impacts and policy response
There are already signs that the government is going to allow Covid schemes to be used to cushion Brexit disruption. This report says the chancellor should instead design an alternative package of support to help businesses cope with short-term Brexit disruption, or allow those businesses special access to the existing Covid-19 schemes on a case-by-case basis.
INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT
At the start of the coronavirus pandemic ministers insisted they were “following the science”, and science advice has remained at the heart of government’s response. Drawing on the UK’s experience of past crises, this report examines the way the government has used science advice in the coronavirus pandemic and outlines how it could do so better in future.
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
Non-working workers: the unequal impact of Covid-19 on the Spanish labour market
This report analyses the impact of Covid-19 on the Spanish labour market by using an evaluation model that aims to develop an index that considers, besides conventional unemployment rates, unemployment duration, discouraged workers and workers with suspended jobs.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
The French recovery strategy: setting the course for a climate-neutral and digital future?
This article analyses the recovery plan and the emergency plan that constitute the French government’s response to the Covid crisis and the unprecedented economic crisis that has ensued. These plans draw, at least in part, on the lessons learned from the 2008 and 2011–12 crises.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Santé mentale: faire face à la crise
The current pandemic since it generates uncertainty, fear, isolation and grief, has and will have a strong impact on the mental health of the French. Between late September and early November 2020, the prevalence of depressive disorders doubled, particularly affecting young people and the most vulnerable. This study paves the way for a patient-centred approach, less stigmatization and better access to care.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
The recovery plan in Italy: setting the course for a climate-neutral and digital future?
The author notes that the Italian recession triggered by the pandemic is one of the worst in Europe. A first estimate of 203 billion euros for 2021–26 includes 193 billion from the recovery and resilience facility. In September, the government presented its four overall goals: improving Italy’s resilience and recovery capacity; reducing the social and economic impact of the pandemic; supporting the green and digital transitions; and increasing the economy’s growth potential and creating jobs.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE)
Zur Ausgestaltung der Corona-Hilfen im Jahr 2021
In view of the partially existence-threatening consequences resulting from the partial shutdown due to the corona crisis, the Federal Government was and is under pressure to act. The report notes that the need for simple and effective help is unquestionable, because it helps to maintain economic structures. Nonetheless, flat-rate reimbursements of sales lead to distortions between companies.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Emergency aid for self-employed in the Covid-19 pandemic: a flash in the pan?
The German federal government approved a €50bn emergency aid program at the end of March 2020 offering one-off lump-sum payments of up to €15,000 to those facing substantial revenue declines. The authors investigate the impact of this program, and observed inter alia that the emergency aid program had significant effects, with the subjective survival probability of self-employment being moderately increased.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ESRI)
Comparing two recessions in Ireland: global financial crisis vs Covid-19
The research note compares the evolution of 3 types of key economic indicators across the 2 most recent recessions in the Irish economy. It indicates that the scale of the negative economic shock is much more severe during the ongoing Covid-19 induced crisis. However, thus far it seems that the Irish economy bounces back more rapidly than during the financial crisis.
EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE
Benchmarking working Europe 2020 – Covid-19 and the world of work: the impact of a pandemic
This publication contributes to key European debates on the basis of fact-based analysis, to set out the case for a socially responsive and ecologically sustainable road out of the Covid-19 crisis. The authors explore some of the key (mis)steps in the way Europe responded to the previous crisis so as to further emphasise the paradigm change that the response to the current crisis necessitates.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
EU response to the coronavirus pandemic: citizens’ views and expectations
This brief analyses how the EU citizens see the measures implemented by the EU to combat the coronavirus pandemic and its consequences. The evaluation of these measures are almost equally divided between positive and negative.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
Citizen participation during the Covid-19 pandemic: insights from local practices in European cities
The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic is the perfect storm that corroborates the magnitude of upcoming challenges for the future of democracy, cities, and citizen participation. The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic in cities offer a unique cross section to understand whether and to what extent participatory practices have been pushed forward.
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
Shortly before the corona pandemic became a public issue, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung carried out a representative survey on belief in conspiracy theories. A comparison is now possible with another representative survey a few months after the start of the corona pandemic. This involves two questions: how widespread is the belief in a “corona conspiracy”, and has the belief in conspiracy theories increased significantly with the corona crisis?
CATO INSTITUTE
Spreading like wildfire: economics and wildfire policy offer useful lessons for Covid-19 response
As with wildfire policy, assessing the net benefits of virus policy is challenging. The problem is complex because of the large scale of the challenge preparation and response. We will always have to live with fire and viruses. The idea of eliminating either “at all cost” makes no economic or common sense. Eliminating a single fire, a single outbreak, or even a single virus may be possible, but the calculus and the best strategy is often nebulous at first and learned over time.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
The impact of Covid-19 on the Internal Market and consumer protection
These proceedings summarise the presentations and discussions that took place during an IMCO webinar on the impact of Covid-19 on the Internal Market and consumer protection. The webinar was structured in two panels: the first one focused on the free movement of goods and people; the second panel was devoted to consumer protection and provision of services.
ENERGIEWIRTSCHAFTLICHES INSTITUT AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN (INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE)
The reformed EU ETS in times of economic crises: the case of the Covid-19 pandemic
To tackle structural supply-demand imbalances and to increase price stability in times of economic crises, policy makers reformed the EU emission trading system (EU ETS) substantially in 2015 and 2018. As the Covid-19 pandemic led to an unforeseen contraction of the economy, it serves as an example to evaluate if the reforms can live up these goals. The paper demonstrates that due to the market stability reserve and the cancellation mechanism, the Corona crisis reduces aggregate emissions in the EU ETS.
EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES
How Covid-19 changed the future: geopolitical implications for Europe
This paper examines following dimensions: it assesses the geopolitical trends the pandemic is perceived as having accelerated, and the scope for innovation and far-reaching change induced by the crisis. It concludes that to proactively shape the future, EU decision-makers have strategic choices to make – with the role that Europe wants to play in a world shaped by Sino-American antagonism being the most important.
EUROPEAN INSTITUTE OF THE MEDITERRANEAN
A renewed migration contract post-Covid: what next for migration governance in the Mediterranean?
The author explores that 2020 has seen not only a fundamental disruption to mobility and migration due to Covid-19, but also the acceleration of ongoing processes and pushing forward with policy pathways that existed before the pandemic in the Euromed region.
TERRA NOVA
Bolsonaro: indifférence ou stratégie du chaos ? Ce que la pandémie fait à la politique
With more than 185,000 deaths (December 2020) and 7.2 million cases since the start of the pandemic, Brazil is undoubtedly one of the countries most affected in the world by the Covid-19 epidemic. When the disease appears in Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro calls the disease a “little flu”, speaks of mass hysteria, then agrees that the deaths of thousands of Brazilians are regrettable but that “to die is the fate of all”. Faced with the increase in the number of cases, the President decides in June to stop the official communication of figures.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Vaccination en France : l’enjeu de la confiance
The success of the vaccination campaign is based on the confidence of the French citizens in the vaccine, and more broadly in the public action which underpins the vaccine policy, which must be restored. The purpose of this note is twofold: to present objective elements on the ongoing development of the vaccine and on possible vaccine strategies; and to put forward concrete paths as regards the collective organization and the related communication campaign.
TERRA NOVA
Vaccin Covid: réinventer la transparence
For doing the anti-Covid vaccination a truly turning point that everyone expects in the management of the epidemic, the provision of an effective and safe vaccine in terms of tolerance and acceptability is an absolutely necessary condition, but it will not be enough. However, the intentions declared today by the French, as well as the very insufficient vaccination rates in France in certain non-compulsory vaccinations (hepatitis B, papillomavirus, influenza, etc.) make such a horizon very uncertain.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE – ESRI
This article explores how ECB purchases of Irish sovereign bonds can impact the recovery path of the Irish economy over the next 10 years. The model used examines how policy intervention can mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic. Two scenarios are assessed, a V-shaped recovery and a long-lasting recovery. In both cases the supply and demand shocks from Covid-19 have significant implications for key economic and fiscal variables.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Covid-19 and economic policy toward the new normal: a monetary-fiscal nexus after the crisis?
Current developments during the Covid-19 pandemic involve strongly complementary monetary and fiscal policy, but both as responses to Covid-19 and not the outcome of an emergent monetary-fiscal nexus. Therefore, the ECB maintains its independence by using unconventional monetary policy measures to reach price stability, according to its mandate.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Monetary policy in the time of Covid-19, or how uncertainty is here to stay
The Covid-19 crisis has compounded the uncertainty that has come to characterise the European economy. The authors explore how this uncertainty manifests itself in terms of ECB decision-making and the long-run challenges the ECB faces.
EUROPEAN POLICY ANALYSIS/WILEY
The evolution of European economic institutions during the Covid-19 crisis
This article argues that the incomplete economic and institutional integration of the euro area has exposed the monetary union to increasing economic divergence, which could be deepened by the Covid-19 crisis. It discusses how monetary and fiscal measures implemented at the onset of the pandemic have contributed to mitigate the economic consequences of lockdowns, but provided limited insurance to narrow economic gaps across member countries.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
A green Covid-19 recovery of the EU basic materials sector: identifying potentials, barriers and policy solutions
This paper explores which climate-friendly projects could be part of the Covid-19 recovery while jump-starting the transition of the European basic materials industry. Results indicate that with an estimated investment of 28.9 billion euro, about 20% of EU’s basic materials could be produced through low-emission processes or additional recycling by 2025 with technologies that are commercially available or at pilot scale today.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Towards a common EU approach to lifting coronavirus-related restrictions on freedom of movement
This briefing discusses the key steps taken by the EU to develop a common response to the current challenges. It provides an overview of the main restrictions on movement imposed by EU and Schengen countries and of the existing coronavirus applications in the member states and their interoperability across borders.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
Covid-19: Lockdown και επιπτώσεις στην εγκληματικότητα στην Ε.Ε.
The brief deals with lockdown’s impact on criminality across the EU and the pandemic’s significant impact on security. Criminal groups have shown adaptability in changing the use of criminal methods. The main changes concerned cybercrime, counterfeit goods, fraud related to property crimes and increasing demand of child pornography. The preparation of specialized action plans to address disinformation and its effects in the field of security is also essential.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Era Covid: ¿Un nuevo paradigma de seguridad?
According to the author, the Covid pandemic has generated new tensions and weakened the former security paradigm. This paper reflects on this matter and how this change is undermining the leadership, cohesion and expectations of the society.
THE PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
Impact of Covid-19 lockdowns on individual mobility and the importance of socioeconomic factors
This brief analyses the impact of lockdown measures on individual mobility determining their effectiveness on health outcomes and their impact on the economy. It uses Oxford stringency index and Google data, indicating that stringent measures were more effective at reducing individual mobility in higher-income countries than in lower-income countries.
LEIBNIZ INSTITUTE FOR FINANCIAL RESEARCH – SAFE
Evaluating the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic
According to the study, epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. The study evaluates the effectiveness of the nationwide stay-home policy enacted in Spain against the Covid-19 pandemic. The findings show that the policy saved 15.9% of lives relative to the number of deaths that would have occurred had it not been for the policy intervention.
INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY)
This paper deals with the Western Balkans’ European perspective and the Covid-19 crises’ impact on the countries’ journey towards EU membership.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Western Balkans in the year of the Covid-19 pandemic
The emergence of the novel coronavirus has altered the political agendas in the Western Balkans. This analysis introduces the health, political and socioeconomic dimensions of the pandemic crisis and evaluates the role of the EU and other external actors during the epidemic.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in Eastern Europe: key points from the 2020 SITE development day conference
This brief summarizes the presentations and discussions held at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) Development day 2020 Conference, focusing on the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic in Eastern Europe.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
The future of global supply chains: what are the implications for international trade?
The paper analyses what is the likely evolution of supply chains and international trade in the medium to long run after the Covid-19 pandemic.
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMY
Lessons from the pandemic for trade cooperation in digital services
The future of global trade lies to a considerable extent in digital services. In large part this is due to the current pandemic, which opens the door for many countries including the poorer ones to participate. The increase of digital services trade post-global financial crisis 2008-09 was faster for countries lower down on the income ladder. They could profit again from the boost in digital outsourcing opportunities in trade after Covid-19.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Global civil society in the shadow of coronavirus
The coronavirus pandemic has had a profound impact not only on government policies but also on societies. The crisis has played out at the public authority level and, equally, at the community and civil society levels. This compilation examines the nature of these coronavirus-related shifts in global civil society covering examples around the world.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Global Covid-19 FinTech market rapid assessment study
This report shows that since the onset of the pandemic, the FinTech industry has seen increased growth. The expansion of transactions was noticeably higher in countries with strict Covid-19 lockdown measures, where growth was 50% higher compared to firms who were operating in countries with looser lockdown measures.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
This report examines some of the most important applications of fourth industrial revolution technologies if we are to thrive in a post-pandemic world and the governance challenges that should be addressed for these technologies to reach their potential.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
State of the connected world: 2020 edition
The report argues that applications of the internet of things (IoT) such as connected thermal cameras, contact tracing devices and health-monitoring wearables are providing critical data needed to help fight the disease. Temperature sensors and parcel tracking are also helping to ensure that sensitive Covid-19 vaccines are distributed safely. Yet the use of IoT in fighting the pandemic has also shed light on concerns about its security, privacy, interoperability and equity.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Las redes sociales y la Covid-19: herramientas para la infodemia
With the Covid-19 pandemic and the fact that global society has been more connected than ever to social media, the perfect scenario was shaped for those aiming at disinformation campaigns and the dissemination of fake news. This article explores the methodology and interests of these disinformation campaigns.
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
The economic consequences of Covid in Spain and how to deal with them
This paper focuses on the economic consequences of Covid-19 in Spain and on what should be done to mitigate them. It outlines a strategy to deal with the crisis that combines short and long-term measures to speed up the recovery and set the foundations for future growth.
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
Non-working workers. The unequal impact of Covid-19 on the Spanish labour market
This report analyses the impact of Covid-19 in the Spanish labour market by using an evaluation model that aims to develop an index that considers, besides conventional unemployment rates, unemployment duration, discouraged workers and workers with suspended jobs.
MAX-PLANCK-INSTITUT FÜR GESELLSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF SOCIETIES)
As a consequence of the Covid-19 disruption, the French government has reversed decades of fiscal consolidation policies sedimented around austerity narratives by instating a costly emergency furlough scheme for a third of the workforce. This papers analyses citizens’ viewpoints and their sensitivity to the trade-off between health and economics, receptiveness to austerity narratives, and the conditionality by socioeconomic status in supporting them.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
Produktions- und Zulieferstrukturen der deutschen Pharmaindustrie
The corona pandemic has reinforced earlier calls for national sovereignty over critical technologies, with policymakers, the business world and society as a whole focusing their attention particularly on the pharmaceutical industry. This article examines the dependencies that could affect production in Germany’s pharmaceutical sector
E3G
Drafting recovery plans for a resilient and green economy
This briefing maps the knowns and unknowns of Europe’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and efforts to align it with the European Green Deal.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Covid-19: a new era of closer cooperation between the EU and its neighbours?
Geopolitical developments over the last few years and now the Covid-19 pandemic are reshaping international business models and global supply chains. Could the European Union’s eastern and southern neighbours benefit from this? This brief argues that the European neighbours would need to improve their business environment – and in particular their governance structures – for new investment and business.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Is the coronavirus catalyzing new civic collaborations for open government?
The coronavirus pandemic has led to increased public demand for government transparency and accountability around the world. This paper discusses the challenges of diverse connectivity, financial capacity and social structure and suggests that, to take advantage of this opportunity for reform, all civic actors involved in open governance must cooperate more intensively.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK (GERMAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE)
This paper aims at estimating the economic vulnerability of developing countries to disruptions in global value chains (GVCs) due to the Covid-19 pandemic. It uses data on trade in value-added for a sample of 12 developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America to assess their dependence on demand and supply from the three main hubs China, Europe, and North America.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Ein Paradies für Gangster? Transnationale organisierte Kriminalität in Zeiten der Covid-19-Pandemie
Since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, some illegal fields of business, such as the trade in counterfeit medical devices, have been experiencing a boom. In addition to shifts in illegal (drug) markets, the potential for criminal exploitation could increase as a result of the health crisis and the influence of criminal groups on the state and society. The associated risks require increased attention from policy makers and law enforcement agencies and more targeted international cooperation.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Containing the Covid-19 pandemic: what determined the speed of government interventions?
Using daily data from 124 countries on containment, confirmed cases and related deaths, a time-to-event model analysed the speed of application of government containment measures. Governments in countries with a weaker health system capacity or with a larger elderly populations started lockdown measures faster. Smaller and more open economies were more likely to move faster to the highest level of containment measures.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Using decision aids to support self-isolation during the Covid-19 pandemic
This study is motivated by the idea that work in psychology and broader behavioural science literature could assist people in these different psychological aspects of self-isolation. Specifically, it focuses on decision aids – interventions or tools designed to improve decision making.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
The G20 in a post-Covid-19 world: bridging the skills gaps
This brief examines the skills gaps that persist across the G20 countries. Education and training mechanisms will need to adapt to the changing skills requirements due to Covid-19. Given that the top three countries with the largest offline populations in the world are all G20 members, the disparities are likely to widen in the coming months. It is imperative for the upcoming G20 presidencies to place skills development high on the group’s agenda.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE/NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE
How the coronavirus risks exacerbating women’s political exclusion
Women participating in politics have navigated unique challenges and opportunities from the coronavirus pandemic. Governments around the world should take these steps to safeguard women’s political inclusion during the pandemic and beyond.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Verletzliche Staaten von Amerika: Die Covid-19-Pandemie als Hypothek für die Zukunft
The US has handled the challenge of the Covid-19 pandemic less well in its first year than other advanced countries, although the country is a leader in research and its handling of crises has so far been seen as exemplary. The social and economic consequences of the pandemic will be a burden on US democracy for years to come. Even under Biden’s presidency, the US will be preoccupied with itself, while its strategic rivals will likely try to take advantage of the loss of prestige of the American social model.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
India’s draft health data management policy: ORF recommendations
Globally, public health systems are showing signs of stress in handling the number of patients afflicted by both Covid-19 and non-Covid ailments. Efforts to manage the pandemic undermine care for other illnesses, including serious ones like cancer, causing concerns of delay in the diagnosis and treatment of these non-Covid illnesses. The imperative is to build a comprehensive telemedicine network that will fill the gaps.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Plan de relance: répondre à l’urgence économique
Faced with a major economic crisis related to Covid-19, in September, the French government presented a budget stimulus program of €100 billion. The author recommends the implementation of several complementary measures. These must help to support economic activity in the very short term, reduce the uncertainty of economic actors and accelerate the adaptation of the economy to the unprecedented supply shock it faces.
TERRA NOVA
Déconfiner le travail à distance
The state and companies failed to learn the lessons of the first confinement to install the conditions for peaceful and efficient remote work. We are paying the price today: the second confinement comes up against a mobility of the French which remains high, much higher in any case than in March and April. The sharp decline in teleworking between these two periods explains part of this gap.
INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT
Digital government during the coronavirus crisis
The coronavirus crisis is accelerating the digital transformation of public service delivery and government use of data. The UK government must learn quickly if it is to effectively serve citizens during and beyond the pandemic. Roles and responsibilities must be clarified, information shared across government departments, and data used transparently.
BRUEGEL
What role for the European Semester in the recovery plan?
Thomas Wieser looks at the implications arising from the focus of the recovery and resilience plans (RRPs) in the context of the European Semester. He suggests that there are risks to the implementation of the RRPs, and/or to an objective evaluation of their progress. While the Treaty specifies that the execution of economic policy coordination shall be done by the MS within the Council, the involvement of the EP would potentially increase transparency and accountability for national policy makers (as well as the Commission and Council), which could improve project delivery and thus benefit the recovery.
BRUEGEL
European Union recovery funds: strings attached, but not tied up in knots
Ensuring effective recovery spending is a high-stakes challenge for the EU, with the potential for derailment because of fuzzy objectives and overloaded procedures. The brief suggests the EU should work with member states to identify limited policies that will maximise the impact of EU investment, while accounting for spillovers.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM/MERCER
Resetting the future of work agenda: disruption and renewal in a post-Covid world
The report is intended as a call to action for companies and organizations globally to update and reset their future of work preparedness agendas for a more relevant and inclusive post-pandemic “new” future of work. It brings together key insights and lessons from the Covid-19 crisis response of the World Economic Forum’s broader industry community to imagine and set out an updated future of work company action agenda for a post-Covid world.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Finanzpolitik mit Weitblick ausrichten
The authors note that, although public budgets showed significant surpluses before the corona crisis, both revenues and expenditures had risen noticeably relative to economic output. They currently see it as a priority goal of fiscal policy to overcome the acute crisis.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG/ FINANZWISSENSCHAFTLICHES FORSCHUNGSINSTITUT AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN
The rocky road to providing public goods in the European Union
This paper takes stock of the reflection group conclusions on European public goods, and looks beyond to the implications of the EU’s first steps at fiscal integration in response to the Covid-19 economic downturn. The reflection group zoomed in on the concept of European public goods as a framework for strengthening the EU by identifying the “more European” tasks which the Union should focus on.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
Is the coronavirus catalysing new civic collaborations for open government?
From Africa to Latin America to Europe, the coronavirus pandemic has generated a surge in public demand for government transparency and accountability. To seize this window for reform, elite and grassroots civic actors concerned with open governance must overcome the cleavage that has long existed between them.
FONDATION SUISSE POUR LA RECHERCHE EN SCIENCES SOCIALES (FORS)
First results of the Swiss household panel – Covid-19
This paper presents the main findings of a Covid-19 survey, conducted between May and June, with respect to a wide variety of domains: the occurrence of Covid-19 infections in people’s networks, changes with respect to work, finances, time use, family life, following education from home, health and wellbeing, worries, social networks and social cohesion, and the evaluation of the political measures taken by the federal government.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
Vertrauen in Mitmenschen lohnt sich Ursachen und Konsequenzen von Vertrauen auf der Individualebene
Generalized trust in other people is especially important in times of crisis. If there is a lack of trust, more control and sanctions are necessary, which result in transaction costs. As various studies show, higher interpersonal trust ensures, among other things, for more cooperation, more prosperity, more life satisfaction, and better health.
TERRA NOVA
Vaccination deployment should be dependent on the prevalence of the virus in a zone (i.e. a predefined geographical area). Red zones should focus on vaccinating people at risk and health workers to reduce fatalities and keep hospitals operational. Green zones should focus on vaccinating inter-zone travellers and highly central individuals to reduce the risk of re-importation. The efficacy of this policy relies on travel restrictions between red and green zones.
TERRA NOVA
The logic of confinement between March and May was striking by its radical novelty in public health. The restrictions of movement weighed on the whole population, universally. The unequal distribution of risk in the population was not taken into account, even though it is the basic framework for public health action. There is no public health manual, no pandemic preparedness plan, that talks about a general restriction of freedom of movement for an entire country. This report seeks to share thoughts, stories and questions raised by the Covid-19 pandemic and its multiple consequences.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Die Pandemie treibt Spaltung an. Macron antwortet mit neuen Prioritäten
The paper notes that Covid-19 has forced President Emmanuel Macron to realign his political program and to respond to deep divisions which became stronger by the health crisis. France is threatening to be more preoccupied with itself in the next few years. This can also put a strain on the cooperation with Germany, especially if Macron’s European political ambitions conflict with the growing doubts of his compatriots about the successes of globalization.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE/KONRAD-ADENAUER STIFTUNG/IFOK
High hopes, low expectations – Brussels’ perspective on the future of Europe after Covid-19
This report presents the results of a study undertaken between July and August 2020 including a survey and personal interviews with high-level Brussels-based stakeholders. The survey and interviews focused on three interrelated thematic blocks: the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the EU; the Brussels community’s expectations for the German Council Presidency; and the Brussels-based stakeholders’ views on the perspectives and content of the Conference on the future of Europe.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
European solidarity in times of Covid-19
The July European Council reached an historic agreement on the €750 billion recovery fund. This analysis is based on a European survey conducted in 13 European countries and the UK. The survey results demonstrate that support in European solidarity varies by geographical distance, by issue, and by the perceived net-benefit to the own country. Support is also motivated by mutual benefit expectations rather than moral obligation or common identity.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
Covid-19 and the growth potential
The lasting economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will become apparent in the development of the macroeconomic factors of production – labour, capital, human capital as well as the stock of technical knowledge. Changes in behaviour such as a greater acceptance of technology can strengthen potential output permanently. By contrast, negative effects may arise from growing protectionist attitudes or long-lasting uncertainties and “scarring effects”. In any case, the crisis has induced a technology push.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Theory, evidence, and risks of the ECB’s asset purchase programme
In response to the Covid-19 crisis, the ECB has relaunched a massive asset purchase programme within its combined-arms monetary strategy. This paper discusses the theory and the evidence of the central bank’s asset purchases, mainly in the euro area. It analyses the role of asset purchase programmes in the ECB’s toolkit and the potential associated risks, focusing specifically on the problems of the programmes’ unwinding.
CENTRE D’ÉTUDES PROSPECTIVES ET D’INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Covid-induced sovereign risk in the euro area: when did the ECB stop the contagion?
This paper examines how the announcement of ECB’s monetary policies has stopped the contagion of the Covid-19 pandemic in the European sovereign debt markets. It shows that up to March 9, the occurrence of new cases in euro area countries has a sizeable and persistent effect on 10-years sovereign bond spreads regarding several member states.
INSTITUTE FOR GOVERNMENT
Support for business during the coronavirus crisis
This report summarises how national and subnational governments in nine advanced economies have so far supported businesses during the crisis through grants, tax cuts and tax deferrals, loans and equity stakes.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Building EU green bonds that deserve their name
According to this brief, the EU should issue parts of the recovery instrument debt as green bonds and thereby boost that burgeoning market. This will depend on the criteria for climate-friendly spending in the legal texts governing the recovery instrument. If these criteria are not strengthened, the Commission should scale back its ambition and should only issue green bonds for measures that fully match the criteria set out in the EU taxonomy regulation.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
Climate action; Socially; Just : a manual of arguments for a fair and ecological society
The key message of this paper is that by changing our way of life, making it more compatible with our environment, we can prevent those dramatic changes for the worse, those consequences of a deteriorating climate that will affect each and every one of us. As our reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic illustrates, faced with new constraints, we are able to adjust and change our way of life, making it more sustainable, as well as our efforts to tackle the climate crisis.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
As the Covid crisis unfolded, most European states recognized the necessity of managing it together. For instance, with the adoption of the €750bn recovery plan, the EU seems to benefit from a new dynamism. Yet, the spillover of this dynamic into security and defence policy seems to be limited. A common understanding among Europeans is the precondition for joint European action. This is exactly where a key project of the German presidency comes in: the strategic compass aims to forge a European strategic culture.
HANNS-SEIDEL-STIFTUNG (HANNS SEIDEL FOUNDATION)
The EU is increasingly caught in international crossfire. The Covid-19 pandemic intensifies global economic competition, in particular the hostile rivalry between the US and China. In this conflict, neutrality is no longer an option for Brussels because it shares the partnership of values of the Western world with Washington. Furthermore, numerous EU member states, as well as the US, are members of the North Atlantic Pact.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Upholding the World Health Organization. Next steps for the EU
The pandemic discloses the discrepancy between the EU advocating for global access to a Covid-19 vaccine while at the same time safeguarding its own access to it. Its refusal to alter patent laws that serve to protect the commercial and innovation interests of pharmaceutical companies based in EU countries can equally be questioned on grounds of global solidarity. A revamped global health strategy is needed to overcome such issues and make the EU a reliable and capable partner on global health that gives WHO a central role.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Improving pandemic preparedness
This study seeks to distill lessons from the Covid painful experience that must be applied so that the US and the world are better prepared for future waves of this pandemic or a next one. It frames pandemic disease as a stark threat to global and national security that neither the US nor the world can afford to ignore again. It argues that future pandemic threats are inevitable and possibly imminent; policymakers should prepare for them and identify what has gone wrong in the US and multilateral response.
RAND EUROPE
Covid-19 and the experiences of populations at greater risk
This report describes the first of four surveys conducted as part of the Covid-19 and the experiences of populations at greater risk. The questions focused specifically on experiences related to the pandemic (financial, physical, emotional), how respondents viewed the disproportionate impacts of the pandemic, whether and how respondents’ views and priorities regarding health actions and investments are changing, and how general values about such issues as freedom and racism may be related to pandemic views and response expectations
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
According to the paper, the coronavirus crisis and its economic repercussions have further undermined economic harmonisation within the EU and revealed its inadequacies. Using the European Semester to distribute the majority of the funds from the next generation EU package is sensible but still in need of some clarification. Conditionality will be necessary here, coupled with the greater involvement of the European Parliament.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Sovereign debt management in the euro area as a common action problem
This policy insight discusses sovereign debt management in the euro area, where the Covid-19 crisis has caused a huge increase in such debts. The two main conclusions are that sovereign debt externalities remain important in the euro area, even in the new environment of permanently lowered interest rates, and that these externalities justify common euro area policies to deal with excessive sovereign debt accumulation and the attendant risks to the euro area’s financial stability.
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
The stability of the financial system and access to financial markets was not at risk during the pandemic. Through joint efforts and better bank capitalisation, the financial system is now more resilient than during the financial crisis. Provided that grants and loans in the “next generation EU” fund are well targeted for structural reforms and investments in the future, this should boost confidence and growth.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Who will really benefit from the next generation EU funds?
Southern and central-eastern European countries will be the biggest beneficiaries of financial support under the new EU recovery and resilience facility and react-EU, as well as of the new Multiannual Financial Framework. Two main risks might reduce the economic impact of these instruments, however: the traditionally slow absorption rate of European structural investment funds and limits to the capacity of national governments to channel very large amounts of public investment.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Pandemia 2020. Świat do góry nogami (Pandemic 2020. The world upside down)
The rapid spread of the virus has become a catalyst for new political, economic and social processes. The low efficacy of counter-measures only enhances the ongoing changes. The report presents five key global challenges in the times of pandemics and suggests a few approaches for possible solutions.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Dashboard for a new economy towards a new compass for the post-Covid recovery
This report outlines a general framework for macroeconomic targets beyond GDP growth – a dashboard for a new economy – to serve as a guide for the post-Covid-19 economic recovery and as a starting point for further debate and convergence of targets and approaches among governments and economic policy-makers globally.
CLINGENDAEL – NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Europeanising health policy in times of coronationalism
The Covid-19 crisis has prompted the EU to rethink its health policy, or rather those of its policies that influence the health policies of member states. Much is still unclear, however, about how a revised EU health policy should look, particularly as this has traditionally been a field where EU citizens saw little added value in the EU becoming involved. The brief looks into a newly proposed EU4Health programme and reviews the EU’s current engagement in the field of health.
EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE
In 2020, country-specific recommendations presented by the European Commission have shifted in favour of strengthening workers’ digital skills and providing adequate social protection. This publication provides an overview of the CSRs in the field of employment and social policies in the member states.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
El teletrabajo en la era Covid
The author explores the role of teleworking as one of the main reasons why many companies and public institutions were able to keep their economic activity during the spring lockdown caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Tracing intersections of Covid-19: gender, water and armed conflicts
This paper highlights the gendered consequences of disease outbreaks in fragile and conflict-affected states globally and explores how armed non-state actors are responding to Covid-19 in the Middle East and North Africa region.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Rosja w globalnym wyścigu szczepionek (Russia in the global race for a vaccine)
Russia has already registered two vaccines against Covid-19 despite the controversy and the scepticism of medical experts and Russian population. The vaccines’ registration has been for Moscow an important tool of foreign policy and Russian “soft power” as well as the reflection of its ambition to defeat Western countries in this race. The marketing of the vaccine has also the considerable financial significance.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
How Black Sea offshore wind power can deliver a green deal for this EU region
To date, offshore wind holds the most promise for the necessary volumes to be realised. While the North Sea offers the best prospects by far, there is significant potential in other waters, including the Baltic Sea, the southern European waters and the Black Sea. The next generation EU recovery fund is an opportunity for the region to take the next step; first plans are emerging.
MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE
Will international migration governance survive the Covid-19 pandemic?
The toolbox of international migration governance has few instruments for dealing with the migration-related challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. Most international agreements on migration are designed to aid people on the move and to assist states in dealing with this movement, voluntary or forced. The most recent addition to the migration governance toolbox offers states useful guidance in their work to restart international migration safely.
TERRA NOVA
L’Europe, le monde et la crise du Covid-19
Josep Borrell discusses the consequences of the current crisis for Europe’s position in the world. The Covid-19 epidemic has triggered a major economic and social crisis: it is both the largest and the most global we have seen since WWII. This dual crisis – health and economic – is still far from over. It is therefore still very difficult to anticipate all its consequences. However, it seems already certain that they will be important in terms of geopolitical balances.
BRUEGEL
Financing the European Union: new context, new responses
With the EU for the first time taking on debt to help finance the economic recovery from the coronavirus, new resources are needed to fund the EU budget. Various ideas have been floated – including a digital tax and a financial transactions tax – but the most appropriate new resource would be revenues from the EU emissions trading system, which could provide enough funding to repay the EU’s coronavirus borrowing.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
IW-Konjunkturprognose: the long road to recovery
In the second quarter of 2020, the corona pandemic adversely affected global economic activity to an extent unparalleled in the last seven decades. This is the result of health policy measures and the virus’s varying impact on the supply and demand sides of the world economies.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
28 semaines plus tard. Y aura-t-il un « monde d’après » ?
After 28 Days Later (2002), the film 28 Weeks Later (2007) depicted a world devastated by a pandemic: almost all of the survivors have become zombies. Fortunately, we are not there yet, even if the epidemiological assessment of Covid-19 at the global level is darker than some had hoped at the beginning of the year 2020. Covid-19 is not, at this stage, a break in the international order. It was not the game changer that H. Kissinger, F. Fukuyama or T. Friedman expected saying that “the world will never be the same again”. SARS-CoV-2 is only a “clarifying virus” (M. Duclos), and an “amplifier” (M. McMillan), or even an accelerator.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Europa krisenfest machen. Europäische Mindeststandards für die nationale Grundsicherung
The Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated the social situation in all EU member states – albeit to different degrees. In order to make the EU more resilient to crises, social inequalities must be reduced and upheavals on the labour markets must be cushioned. It is important to strengthen economic integration in the EU through a social component. The authors propose European minimum standards for national basic security systems that strengthen crisis resilience.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
This report examines main changes in the globalisation and digitalisation megatrends as a result of the corona pandemic. It also sheds light on the interactions between these megatrends, which are particularly affected by the crisis, with demographic change and the effects on our economic and social system. It puts forward five theses on the future of megatrends.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Corona politics: the cost of mismanaging pandemics
The Covid-19 pandemic is a major test for governments around the world. This study examines the political consequences of (mis)managing the Covid crisis by constructing a high frequency dataset of government approval for 35 countries.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
Why populist nationalists are not having a good crisis yet
If we follow the hypothesis that the coronavirus crisis is a trend accelerator, rather than a turning point of history, the world that emerges from the crisis will not look fundamentally different than the world that has existed before. An eroding liberal international order, a US retreating as a global leader, increasing great-power rivalry, a world economy surpassing peak globalization – all of these trendlines were observable before and grow more notable as the pandemic ravages on.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY
Covid-19 shocking global value chains
In early 2020, the disease Covid-19 caused a drastic lockdown of the Chinese economy. The authors use a quantitative trade model with input-output linkages to gauge the effects of this adverse supply shock in China on the global economy through international trade and global value chains (GVCs). Had the US unilaterally repatriated GVCs, the country would have incurred a substantial welfare loss while its exposure to the shock would have barely changed.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Sur l’Europe, avec la Covid-19, la Chine tombe le masque
The health crisis came as a debate was taking place in Europe on the need to adopt a more united and coherent policy towards China. At the start of the epidemic, we first saw greater EU/China cooperation in the supply of medical equipment in the form of reciprocal aid. Then, the strong communication of China on its medical aid to Europe and its “diplomacy of the mask” created tensions. The Covid-19 crisis has highlighted the existing fractures between some European states on their approach to an increasingly influential China.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
Covid-19 en Amérique latine: au-delà d’une crise sanitaire
Now, it is the worst recession in its history which awaits Latin America due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Latin America combines several situations and factors that make it particularly vulnerable to a global pandemic. The author discusses also other phenomena which will further weaken many societies on the subcontinent.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL/RAFIK HARIRI CENTER FOR THE MIDDLE EAST
The impact of Covid-19 on either shore of the Mediterranean
This report draws on case studies of Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, and migration to the EU to illuminate the key challenges faced in the Mediterranean community, and warns of the undesirable outcomes ahead if international inaction toward the region persists.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Rebondir face au Covid-19: neuf idées efficaces en faveur de l’emploi
The health and economic crisis of Covid-19 has, since March, plunged France into an unprecedented situation in terms of employment. This note proposes nine ideas constituting an arsenal of concrete and easily accessible solutions in order to promote employment and bounce back from the crisis.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Ein Sicherungsnetz für Europas Verteidigung. Deutschland kann Fähigkeitsverluste verhindern
Due to the far-reaching economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, there is a risk of cuts in defence spending and armed forces structures in Europe from 2021. The paper shows that at the same time the security situation in Europe’s neighbourhood is deteriorating – a functioning European defence remains essential.
HANNS-SEIDEL-STIFTUNG (HANNS SEIDEL FOUNDATION)
Von der Gesundheitlichen zur ökonomischen Krise
The corona pandemic plunged Germany into the worst recession of its post-war period. From a historical point of view, fiscal policy measures such as government rescue packages can provide only temporary relief for the economy. How can ways out of the (economic) crisis look like?
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
The integration of refugees into the education system as well as the labour market has moved ahead rapidly over the last few years. However, the situation in Germany has again worsened somewhat after the corona pandemic this year. Even if it is not possible to foresee how long the pandemic’s negative impact on the labour market will last, it can be assumed that the (labour) market integration of refugees will return to the positive trend in recent years over the long term.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
The spread of the Covid-19 poses health and economic challenges to all economies around the world. Nationally varying restrictions on cross-border mobility affect tourism and commuters, especially between Austria and Hungary. After the first months of the pandemic, there were first signs of normalization of relations with Germany, Switzerland and the Visegrád countries. The crisis has accelerated trends and will bring new challenges shaping Austrian relations with its neighbours in the long term-
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
A more united Europe has the potential to deliver greater benefits for its citizens, more effectively and efficiently. This paper analyses some of the issues arising specifically in the economic field in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis and looks at a range of policy initiatives that could help build a broadly based and sustainable European economic recovery and a more resilient EU.
CENTRE D’ÉTUDES PROSPECTIVES ET D’INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES (CEPII)
Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU
The pandemic triggered portfolio rebalancing in the euro area implying a divergence of sovereign risk premia in the first phase of the crisis eventually followed by a narrowing of the spreads. The estimates on the determinants of sovereign bond spreads in the euro area (January – May 2020) show that: the countries’ resilience to the Covid shock depended on healthcare capacity, the strength of the banking sector and the fiscal outlook; during the crisis coordination by the European Council also helped to reduce the spreads.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
The ESM pandemic crisis support
This paper provides a summary analysis of the European stability mechanism pandemic crisis support instrument agreed by the Eurogroup. This instrument allows the ESM to provide financial assistance to euro area member states, to be used for recovering costs related to direct and indirect healthcare, cure and prevention due to the Covid-19 crisis.
CLINGENDAEL – NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The European Commission on the brink of a green recovery. Will it be able to deliver?
According to the report, greening the huge corona recovery investments and the revised MFF is marketed as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The Commission is keeping its Green Deal ideas at the heart of its Next Generation package, but meanwhile the recovery measures of individual member states are aimed mostly at ensuring the jobs and businesses of the grey economy. This brief analyses the effectiveness of key steering instruments available to the Commission and explores how their effectiveness is influenced by the political context of the European Council.
EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE
Mitigating the Covid-19 effect: emergency economic policy-making in Central Europe
This paper analyses the economic policy-making in the first phase of the epidemic in Austria, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia, whose economic structure is characterized by strong export orientation. The focus is on the participatory character of the governments’ Covid-19 packages, on their design, and targets.
MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE
Driving migrant inclusion through social innovation: lessons for cities in a pandemic
The rapid arrival of millions of asylum seekers and migrants in Europe in 2015-16 forced cities to rethink their approach to immigrant inclusion. The Covid-19 pandemic has forced them to confront a whole new set of challenges. This report explores key lessons cities can draw from the social innovation that accompanied the 2015-16 arrivals to help them weather the challenges brought by the pandemic.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES
Opening doors to labour immigration
According to the paper, it is not just immigration of the ‘global talent’ that is needed to staff intensive care units, or the researchers needed to recruit in the hope they will end the pandemic with a vaccine – but also of the indispensable migrant agricultural workers. The idea was to create an employer-driven system that would be able to respond flexibly to ever-changing needs on the labour market, while protecting the rights of migrant workers.
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
Un modelo robusto para la predicción ad‑futurum de los efectos de la epidemia del Covid‑19
The prediction of both the dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic and the needs it generates is based on the combination of two predictive models: limited growth and short-term. The report discusses both models in terms of uncertainty analysis, relation to the historical series, regionalization and interaction with the meteorological conditions.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Por una pausa temporal vinculada al Covid-19 en la automatización
The response to the pandemic has led to a sudden, deep and general economic and social crisis. In view of rising unemployment, deglobalisation and growing interest in repatriating activities, the authors suggest to slow down the introduction of technologies that replace human employment, not those that improve it. This should be done through agreements at national and international level.
TERRA NOVA
The first thirty days. Comparative lessons from the Covid pandemic
This paper compares the effectiveness of national responses to the Covid-19 epidemic in 24 countries, covering Western and Central Europe, North America, Russia, Turkey, South Africa, the Middle East and Asia. It recalculates national mortality rates and compares them with some major public health parameters. The goal is to observe the extent to which the combination of structural (proactive) health efforts and immediate (reactive) measures tempered the severity of the scourge.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
The Communist Party of China (CPC) plans for China to achieve effective global dominance by 2049. According to the report, the CPC is using the major global crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic to secure strategic advantage through propaganda and disinformation, assertive, sometimes aggressive diplomacy, pursuing targeted investments, and offering “health cooperation.” The CPC has long targeted European business and political elites to build constituencies of support. Europe must counter by building robust societies based on core democratic values.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
Masks off: Chinese coronavirus assistance in Europe
This analysis points out that Chinese assistance stretched well beyond the high-profile cases of hard-hit Italy and Spain to countries large and small. The donations by Chinese authorities and companies coincided with China’s national and economic interests. Chinese donations were accompanied by a sustained communications and diplomatic push aimed at a global audience.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Mask wars: China’s exports of medical goods in times of Covid-19
This article studies the economic and political factors that are associated with China’s exports of medical equipment during the first two months of the pandemic. Findings imply that, to secure access to medical equipment in crises, countries are well advised to either diversify their sources or to develop closer relations with Beijing and China’s provinces.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Gaza’s new coronavirus fears
A cluster of coronavirus cases indicates that community transmission is occurring in the Gaza Strip. According to the paper, Israel should relax its blockade to permit entry of medical equipment and exit of seriously ill patients. Donors should respond quickly to requests for aid.
FUNDACIÓN ALTERNATIVAS
Informe Iberoamérica 2020: América Latina ante la protesta y la pandemia
The year 2020 will be a turning point in the history of Latin America. The current Covid-19 crisis will hit the political and economic systems of all nations but will be cushioned in a different way. Latin America is facing this in a critical situation: economic stagnation, problems of drug trafficking, public safety, poverty, migratory crises and unprecedented social protests that show the limits of governability of a region immersed in a cycle of political instability.
LSE IDEAS
Technology in conflict: how Covid-19 contact tracing apps can exacerbate violent conflicts
The author explores how a human security approach to Covid-19 tech tools would prompt tech companies, governments, and other actors to work with communities in ways that enhance their agency in the face of the pandemic to both reduce the risk of exacerbating conflict while maximizing the benefits of technology.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ESRI)
Public understanding and perceptions of the Covid-19 test-and-trace system
The aim of this study is to measure understanding and perceptions of the Covid-19 test-and-trace system among a representative sample of adults in Ireland. Almost half of people do not know that calling their GP to discuss symptoms of Covid-19 is free, and over one third think they could be charged for a test. These wrongly perceived costs could deter or delay people from arranging a test if they experience symptoms.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Ciberlecciones aprendidas del Covid-19
The paper shows that Covid-19 has tested the resilience of critical infrastructure and communication networks and systems in cyberspace. Its effects have been different from the incidents and attacks for which those responsible for cybersecurity are preparing.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
The Brexit parenthesis: three ways the pandemic is changing UK politics
The paper argues that Covid-19 has the potential to replace the nationalism of Brexit with a politics of pragmatic international cooperation abroad and tackling structural inequalities at home. While much of the pain of the looming recession still lies in the future, the crisis of 2020 could, paradoxically, lead to normal politics in abnormal times.
INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH
Rescue and recovery, Covid-19, jobs and income security
In the first ‘stabilisation and rescue’ phase of the crisis, governments introduced a range of emergency measures to preserve jobs and support incomes. In the next phase of the crisis, the job of governments is to support the economic recovery. In the case of the labour market, it must be done by stimulating the economy through large-scale public investment to support the creation of new jobs and help for some workers to switch to new sector
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
A more united Europe has the potential to deliver greater benefits for its citizens, more effectively and efficiently. This paper analyses some of the issues arising specifically in the economic field in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis and looks at a range of policy initiatives that could help build a broadly based and sustainable European economic recovery and a more resilient EU.
CENTRE D’ÉTUDES PROSPECTIVES ET D’INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES (CEPII)
Covid 19: a new challenge for the EMU
The pandemic triggered portfolio rebalancing in the euro area implying a divergence of sovereign risk premia in the first phase of the crisis eventually followed by a narrowing of the spreads. The estimates on the determinants of sovereign bond spreads in the euro area (January – May 2020) show that: the countries’ resilience to the Covid shock depended on healthcare capacity, the strength of the banking sector and the fiscal outlook; during the crisis coordination by the European Council also helped to reduce the spreads.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
The ESM pandemic crisis support
This paper provides a summary analysis of the European stability mechanism pandemic crisis support instrument agreed by the Eurogroup. This instrument allows the ESM to provide financial assistance to euro area member states, to be used for recovering costs related to direct and indirect healthcare, cure and prevention due to the Covid-19 crisis.
CLINGENDAEL – NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The European Commission on the brink of a green recovery. Will it be able to deliver?
According to the report, greening the huge corona recovery investments and the revised MFF is marketed as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The Commission is keeping its Green Deal ideas at the heart of its Next Generation package, but meanwhile the recovery measures of individual member states are aimed mostly at ensuring the jobs and businesses of the grey economy. This brief analyses the effectiveness of key steering instruments available to the Commission and explores how their effectiveness is influenced by the political context of the European Council.
EUROPEAN TRADE UNION INSTITUTE
Mitigating the Covid-19 effect: emergency economic policy-making in Central Europe
This paper analyses the economic policy-making in the first phase of the epidemic in Austria, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia, whose economic structure is characterized by strong export orientation. The focus is on the participatory character of the governments’ Covid-19 packages, on their design, and targets.
MIGRATION POLICY INSTITUTE
Driving migrant inclusion through social innovation: lessons for cities in a pandemic
The rapid arrival of millions of asylum seekers and migrants in Europe in 2015-16 forced cities to rethink their approach to immigrant inclusion. The Covid-19 pandemic has forced them to confront a whole new set of challenges. This report explores key lessons cities can draw from the social innovation that accompanied the 2015-16 arrivals to help them weather the
NOTRE EUROPE/ INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Un accord historique à améliorer et à réaliser
It is a potentially more integrated and united EU that emerges from the great agreement concluded between the 27 heads of state and government in July on a recovery plan backed by the European multiannual budget. The scale of the response that this agreement will bring to the economies most affected by the Covid crisis and the progress in European integration it engages both deserve to be commended. Its concrete, rapid and visible translation is now necessary so that the astronomical sums announced to Europeans do not remain distant promises.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Next generation EU: Una condizionalità virtuosa
Apart from the agreement on the overall size of the Next Generation EU fund, confirming the 750 billion proposed by the Commission, the July European Council had also to decide on two issues: the relationship between grants and loans and the conditions for disbursement of funds and control over their use on the other. The first question has very modest quantitative implications, while the second is certainly important for the opportunity for growth it offers, if it is played well by individual states and by the institutions of the EU.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ESRI)
The authors are assessing the role European institutions can play in mitigating the negative economic and fiscal effects of the crisis for a particular member state by participating directly in the sovereign debt management of that country. The results indicate that the direct involvement of EU institutions via sovereign bonds purchases increases the efficiency of the extraordinary fiscal stimulus packages undertaken by member states.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΙΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
The future is green, digital and social: Europe’s new growth model and its recovery plan
This brief outlines inter alia the Commission’s recovery plan proposal, and examines its links to the aspiring green and digital transition. It showcases the legal base and timeline of the recovery plan proposal and argues for the need of a holistic recovery, that takes into account the unprecedented policy window brought by public and private funding, and ensures that the eventual indebtedness of the next generation is at least compatible with the aspirations and goals of an economy and society of the future.
NOTRE EUROPE/ INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Plan de relance européen: place aux obligations vertes et sociales
In exceptional circumstances, exceptional measures, but also exceptional financing. The Commission proposed a € 750 billion plan in May to revive the European economy and support the countries most affected by the pandemic. These € 750 billion will be borrowed on the financial market. The author suggests that the Commission issues a significant portion of this debt under form of “green bonds” for an amount that could reach € 100 billion over 5 years and another in “Social obligations” for a potential amount of € 50 billion over 5 years.
HERTIE SCHOOL /JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
What the European Council’s MFF recovery deal tells us about the EU’s global ambition
European leaders reached a deal on the long-term EU budget and recovery fund. The compromise is historical in terms of internal solidarity, but it curtails the EU’s geopolitical ambition and ability to provide global public goods. EU spending on development and humanitarian aid is lower than in its last long-term budget whereas challenges are clearly bigger. Expenditure on security and defence has been halved compared to the Commission’s 2018 proposal despite rising demand for more autonomous EU action. If the EP fails to rectify these cuts, the member states will have to find more creative ways to pool national resources in the coming years.
NOTRE EUROPE/ INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Carnet de crise, quel nouvel agenda pour l’Europe?
According to Alain Lamassoure, coming at a time of transition in world history, and of deep crisis in the democratic model, the incredible crisis triggered by the pandemic will have some of the effects of a major international conflict: redistribution of economic and geostrategic power, new rules of the game international, the collapse of certain countries and certain regimes, new unexpected sources of conflicts and regional tensions, or the promotion of the “values” of all kinds of countries who will appear to emerge as “winners”.
WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES
Covid-19 and the old-new politics of irregular migration from Libya
According to the paper, the Covid crisis has been spurred by a progressive increase in illegal border crossings from Libya towards Malta and Italy. This increase is a result of at least two factors: a mass joblessness among Libya’s large migrant population, caused by an economic decline due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing conflict inside the country; and a resumption of the activities of migrant smugglers, tolerated by the officially recognised Government of National Accord. The health crisis has confirmed Libya as the main North African country serving as a departure point for Europe bound irregular migrants.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Force majeure clauses during Covid–19 and their implications
In the midst of the Covid–19 pandemic, one issue that poses a common challenge for many scholars is Force majeure clauses in contracts and their applicability during this crisis. Due to the “factspecific” nature of Force majeure clauses, Covid–19 cannot be unilaterally applied to all contracts, although the potential of mass contractual disputes and fallouts is high. The economic impact of stalled and cancelled international and domestic business contracts is staggering, and governments have to decide whether they will opt to legislate or have parties litigate in response to the virus.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES
In times of major crises such as the one we are facing right now, strong and coordinated interventions are needed at the central and the local levels of government. This paper gives concrete examples of the vital role local governments play in the fight against the pandemic. Municipalities can play a crucial role in ensuring that all members of the community are taken care of when the economy is at great risk of collapse.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
In sickness and in health: European cooperation during the coronavirus crisis
The paper analyses the impact of the coronavirus crisis on cooperation patterns among governments of the 27 EU member states, and on the roles that policy professionals across the continent expect EU institutions and national capitals to play in such a situation.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΙΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
With the recovery plan, for the first time the EU is moving away from the principle of net fiscal benefit or loss of each member state. If the projected distribution of the resources of the recovery and resilience facility is calculated as a percentage of the GDP of each country, Greece is the country that is expected to receive the largest percentage of GDP. The most important change to be expected is the strengthening of all sorts of conditionalities, as regards both the selection of investments to be funded and the implementation of all decisions.
CLINGENDAEL – NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Streamlining the value chain in times of Covid-19
The paper presents the key risks that the impact of Covid-19 on global value chains poses to the Dutch economy and its foreign policy objectives. It draws on insights from three case studies concerning developing economies in Latin America, Indonesia and Sahel, showing that the consequences of the pandemic are more severe in less well-off states.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE (ESRI)
This report assesses the economic and environmental impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on the Irish economy, by applying the Ireland environment, energy and economy (I3E) model. As a dynamic general equilibrium model, I3E allows us to quantify the consequences of the restrictions on various economic agents in a consistent and comprehensive manner.
POLICY NETWORK
Beds or bonds? Conditional solidarity in the coronavirus crisis
The coronavirus crisis exacerbates inequality in the EU. It gives rise to a critical debate about the future of Europe concerning a key question: in what way does the project of integration require a higher degree of European solidarity? To what extent are Europeans willing to help each other, and what kind of help are they willing to provide? A recent survey of the German residential population offers a mixed picture: whereas people strongly support medical solidarity, their willingness to support financial redistribution is limited.
POLICY NETWORK – NEXTEUK
Labour peer Roger Liddle argues that the UK faces huge economic risks in piling on top of the grave Covid-19 emergency with the negative impacts of ‘no deal’, or a very ‘barebones’ trade deal, which is probably where we are heading. He argues that the success is imperilled of Britain’s future relationship with the European friends and allies beyond Brexit.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Reading between the lines of Council agreement on the MFF and Next Generation EU
The July agreement on the EU budget is an unprecedented and historic achievement for the EU. It has broken a taboo and advanced the integration process. While attention has focused on the Next Generation EU, the agreement also includes the ‘normal’ multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2021-27. This paper presents a brief rundown of the actual changes in numbers and reflects on the meaning of the agreement.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS)
Die Corona-Krise – Ein Stresstest für den Euro
The corona crisis could become a turning point in the European integration process. The economic constraints within the euro area and the associated political tensions are not the only, but the greatest challenge in this context. The different options for a European response to the crisis must therefore not be discussed and assessed in isolation from the long-standing discussions about the further development of the common currency architecture. This brief traces the most relevant findings from the first two decades of euro history and attempts to highlight the economic policy challenges facing the euro area and the dangers arising from them against the background of the current crisis.
BRUEGEL
The financial fragility of European households in the time of Covid-19
In the wake of Covid-19, the authors ask how households in the EU (including the UK) were well-prepared to handle an unexpected expense. They found that one in three EU households is unable to meet an unexpected shock during regular times, let alone during a pandemic. Covid-19-related support measures put in place across the EU are intended to provide economic help to those households where members have lost jobs or face a severe reduction in income. Policies that increase financial resilience in structural ways will become necessary in the future.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Crisis decision-making. How Covid-19 has changed the working methods of the EU institutions
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused the dynamics of the EU institutions to change. Much attention has been paid to the functioning of the EU institutions at the highest political level, but less so at the working levels of the Council, the Commission and the European Parliament). This contribution analyses all three main institutions by describing how decisions are usually made; exploring how they were made in corona times; and assessing how well the individual institutions were equipped and able to adapt to these unusual circumstances.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Germany’s corona Presidency. Germany’s leadership role and European partners’ expectations
The expectations of Germany’s European partners regarding the country’s EU Council presidency are even higher now as a result of the coronavirus crisis. The German government’s success will be measured in particular by the implementation of an appropriate recovery fund as part of the MFF 2021-2027. This will require resolving the conflicts of interest between member states and the German government will assume a central role here.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Angela Merkel y cómo la gestión de la crisis de la pandemia puede marcar su legado
The successful management of the Covid-19 pandemic has brought the German Chancellor back to the forefront. In Europe, Angela Merkel has made a commitment to solidarity and, together with Emmanuel Macron, proposed a 500 billion euro recovery fund to help the member countries most affected by the consequences of this crisis. Germany holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council for this six-month period and expectations are high. Everyone is confident that Angela Merkel will seize this opportunity to strengthen her legacy.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
From reaction to action: how the EU can step up its role in global pandemics
Following on from the Franco-German initiative for European recovery from the ongoing Covid-19 crisis, the authors outline a twofold strategy to foster ‘EU health sovereignty’ and reinforce the EU’s international leadership in health: foster EU health crisis management capabilities by empowering existing structures, prepare a European stockpile of strategic medical products and equipment, and make better use of the Single Market in the area of health; and strengthen the resilience of national health systems by promoting modern, innovative and patient-centred care, and encourage the creation of a common, EU-wide evaluation framework for health care.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Conséquences et leçons d’un virus
Europe took their summer vacation at a time when the Covid pandemic seemed to be receding, despite the clusters that are still appearing. However, we are not immune to a next wave. After so many imprudent speeches, nobody dares to make too precise forecasts. In any case, any confirmed lull lends itself to broader reflections both on the consequences of the disaster and on the dysfunctions that allowed it.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Compulsory licensing and access to future Covid-19 vaccines
Since the recent World Health Assembly failed to declare future Covid-19 vaccines a global ‘public good’, they are confirmed as private (intellectual) property and will be subject to patent rights protection as a pharmaceutical product. The author asks if developing countries will have access to affordable Covid-19 vaccines, once available? Would an EU member state be eligible to import generic versions of a patented vaccine if it has insufficient or no manufacturing capacity? Moreover, how to enable an expeditious and predicable multiple patent examination process so that Covid-19 vaccines could become market-ready more efficiently?
HERTIE SCHOOL /JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Four implications of the Covid-19 pandemic for the EU asylum and migration policy
Border closures and regional lockdowns related to Covid-19 have had a direct impact on the functioning of the EU’s asylum and migration policy. This brief shows that the virus impaired access to asylum in the EU, hampered the EU’s ability to steer a common response to the crisis, and underlined the importance of migrants as “essential workers”. It concludes by identifying lessons learned that can inform the process of making the EU’s asylum and migration policy Covid-19-proofed.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Post-Covid multilateralism. How to save humanity from hell?
The crisis of multilateralism was present long before Donald Trump’s rise to power and the outbreak of Covid-19. The paper examines the repercussions of the pandemic for the multilateral cooperation and presents new approaches which can be developed to save the multilateralism and the global governance system.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Konsekwencje pandemii Covid-19 dla stosunków międzynarodowych (The consequences of the Covid-19 outbreak for international relations)
The report presents first lessons learned from the pandemic in the context of international relations. First chapters focus on Covid-19 impact on main international organisations such as EU, UN including WHO, and on multilateralism, while the other parts concern the consequences of the outbreak for security, economy and climate change.
KONRAD-ADENAUER STIFTUNG
Corona haucht Gewaltakteuren weltweit neues Leben ein
Covid-19 has spread rapidly in developing countries. And the effects will be dramatic. The Covid-19 crisis offers significant recruiting potential, especially for violent actors – and for several reasons. Particularly where the state fails, violent actors provide material and immaterial support and thus increase their influence on the population.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
Guerra y epidemias: dos cabalgan juntos
Asserting that after the Covid-19 a different world will emerge, generally for the better, is a commonplace. The severe impact of this pandemic is seen as an engine of change that can facilitate a peaceful end to war and armed conflict. However, historical experience, the real impact and the responses to the call for a cessation of hostilities made by the UN Secretary General suggest that this will not be the case.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (Friedrich Ebert Foundation)
Covid-19 and the Syrian regime: an opportunity to tighten its authoritarian control over society
The Syrian regime has handled the Covid-19 pandemic with a combination of opacity and repression. As Covid-19 has deepened Syria’s socioeconomic crisis, Damascus’ attempts to dominate society have not quite succeeded. Criticism of the central authorities and their policies is being publicly expressed, even in areas under the regime’s control. While the regime owes much of its resilience to its foreign allies, various political and socioeconomic factors continue to challenge its attempts to create the conditions needed to stabilize its power.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
The expectations of the European partners for the German EU Council Presidency have grown again due to the corona crisis. The success of the federal government is measured in particular by the adoption of an appropriate recovery fund as part of the 2021-2027 multiannual financial framework. This requires overcoming conflicts of interest between member states. The Federal Government will take the lead in this.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Next Generation EU: an interpretative guide
The Commission proposal strengthens and articulates the framework launched by Macron and Merkel. This proposal, called “Next Generation EU”, confirms the disbursement by the EU of 500 billion euro in the form of transfers, including guarantees, and adds 250 billion euro in the form of long-term loans to member states. These resources will be collected through the issue of bonds on the financial markets by the Commission on behalf of the EU. These issues will depend on the increase in the margin between own resources and the disbursements of the EU budget.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES
Collateral easing with disciplinary dysfunction? On the limitations of the ECB’s Covid-19 response
The Covid-19 crisis caused stress in European sovereign debt markets. The potential impact on euro resilience of rapidly increasing spreads on Italian government bonds gave rise to particular concern. The ECB’s response – ranging from the pandemic emergency purchases programme to several rounds of easing of its collateral policy – has been praised for quickly stabilizing government bond markets and ameliorating euro resilience concerns. But it may not last.
BRUEGEL
Is the Covid-19 crisis an opportunity to boost the euro as a global currency?
The euro never challenged the US dollar, and its international status declined with the euro crisis. Faced with a US administration willing to use its hegemonic currency to extend its domestic policies beyond its borders, Europe is reflecting on how to promote it currency on the global stage to ensure its autonomy. But promoting a more prominent role for the euro is difficult and involves far-reaching changes to the fabric of the monetary union.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
IW financial expert survey: second quarter 2020
Pessimism related to the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 and its development in 2020 determines experts’ predictions for the second and third quarter of 2020. The pessimistic outlook can be inferred from the downward revisions of experts’ forecasts.
CHATHAM HOUSE – THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Europe after coronavirus: the EU and a new political economy
This paper examines the consequences of a change in Europe’s political economy and the potential implications for the European project. If the Covid-19 crisis leads to a larger role for the state and a move away from market-oriented policies, the EU will face a challenge in accommodating that change. The EU could conceivably be the driver of collective change in fiscal policy and taxation, labour markets and redistribution, and industrial policy. But because of existing political differences and the fact that the health and economic crisis has had asymmetric effects within Europe, it is more likely that the pandemic response will lead to an uneven shift in economic policy across the EU.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Health sovereignty: how to build a resilient European response to pandemics
The absence of health security threatens the ability of societies to function and economies to prosper, therefore populations expect their governments to retain strategic sovereignty in the health area. Cooperation at the European level is a key for achieving health security. If member states are to retain their ability to provide it to their citizens, they will need effective cooperation with their European partners, both through the EU and other mechanisms.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS)
Since the “Spanish flu”, which raged worldwide from 1918 to 1920, Europe has been spared from pandemics. EU-wide standards are now required for the provision and storage of medicines, medical devices, protective clothing to combat a pandemic. A yet to be established EU authority for safety in health care should efficiently monitor compliance with these standards, be active in prevention matters, monitor the world situation, define strategies, advise EU decision-makers and coordinate the action of the member states in an emergency.
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY MANAGEMENT
Policy coherence issues emerging from Covid-19 with a focus on healthcare supply chains
The management of the coronavirus pandemic has been considerably impaired by a dearth of essential medical and pharmaceutical products. Disruptions in supply chains for healthcare goods have caused shortages and tight inventories. The reliance of many countries, particularly in Europe and Africa, on products imported from a few international suppliers is largely the result of the process of globalisation in the past decades.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Europe’s pandemic politics: how the virus has changed the public’s worldview
This brief explores how the pandemic has affected European citizens’ views on politics, society, and Europe’s place in the world. It is based on a recent poll conducted in Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden covering more than two-thirds of the EU’s population and GDP. According to the findings, the coronavirus crisis has not yet created new political cleavages or cleared a path for new political actors; nor has it fundamentally changed voters’ attitudes towards the role of the state.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after Covid-19
The paper explores the insights from the recent survey which showed that after the onset of the Covid-19, there was a sense among Europeans to be alone in the world – with their perceptions of the US, China, and Russia worsening overall. Europeans still believe in the value of cooperation, but generally feel that EU institutions have not helped them enough during the crisis. There has been a rise in public support for unified EU action to tackle global threats as well to enhance the EU’s preparedness.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES/ EUROPEAN POLICY INSTITUTES NETWORK
‘Coronationalism’ vs a geopolitical Europe?
EU member states have been discussing how to collectively deal with the socioeconomic repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic. As major debates continue to take place about internal solidarity, the question arises how the EU and its member states wish to support third countries, outside the EU, in tackling their health and economic emergencies. It finds that, for now, neither ‘coronationalist’ nor geopolitical ambitions dominate the relatively little politicized debates about international cooperation and development aid.
CLINGENDAEL – NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Covid-19 impact on the value chain
This report explores the impact of Covid-19 on employment and livelihoods in developing countries, across and along value chains. It explores qualitatively how Covid-19 impacts different kinds of employment and how it affects women and youth. It conducts a high-level assessment of which value chains are affected and what the impact on livelihoods and labour rights might be.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Emergency powers, Covid-19 and the new challenge for human rights
“A human crisis that is fast becoming a human rights crisis”. UN Secretary General António Guterres was among the first to raise the alarm about possible human rights implications of government measures to fight Covid-19. Since its outbreak, 87 states, both authoritarian and established democracies, have declared a state of emergency to curb the spread of the virus, which implies certain derogations from international human rights conventions.
COLLEGE OF EUROPE
Disinformation in times of Covid-19: reinforcing the responses of the European Union and the United States
This brief discusses how the EU and US have responded to Russian and Chinese disinformation during the Covid-19 pandemic, arguing that it should be viewed as an opportunity to improve EU and US policies by adopting new or revising legislation and improving transatlantic cooperation based on mutual understanding, shared best practices and compromise. The argument is developed by, first, charting the Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns during the Covid-19 crisis. EU and US responses are analysed.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG/THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES/ INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Transatlantic trends 2020. Transatlantic opinion on global challenges before and after Covid-19
The 2020 edition of transatlantic trends is a comparative study of French, German, and American perspectives on the major issues facing the transatlantic relationship: cooperation in security and defence, China’s influence on the global stage, international trade, and the digital transition. The report serves as a comprehensive overview of the major trends shaping transatlantic relations, compares public policies with public perceptions in all three countries, and strengthens trilateral French-German-US dialogue on issues where public opinion is in favour of closer cooperation.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
A global strategy for shaping the post-Covid-19 world
The Covid-19 pandemic is an acute public health and economic crisis that is further destabilizing an already weakened rules-based international system. With cooperation, determination, and resolve, however, the US States and its allies can recover from the crisis and revitalize an adapted rules-based system to bring about decades of future freedom, peace, and prosperity.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
China’s responsibility for the Covid-19 pandemic: an international law perspective
The coronavirus pandemic has roiled international relations. The huge global toll of the pandemic, both in terms of deaths and economic implications, has raised the question of Chinese responsibility. This paper analyzes China’s responsibility for Covid-19 under international law.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Hong Kong wobec pandemii (Hong Kong in the face of the pandemic)
Hong Kong has reacted to the pandemic in a fast and efficient way. The paper presents economic measures taken by the authorities to support business, while underlining the citizens’ compliance with the public health procedures. However, the future is uncertain as Beijing’s pressure grows as well as the economic hardship.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Covid-19 und die UN women, peace and security agenda
The authors reflect on the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the UN women, peace and security agenda and discuss the impulses that the agenda can provide for gender-sensitive crisis management. The pandemic leads to a general increase in gender inequalities, which is particularly expressed in the unequal division of labour and an increase in gender-based violence. In crisis and conflict areas, this leads to further strengthening of gender-specific vulnerability and the exclusion of women from conflict management as well as from Covid-19 crisis management.
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO
Dealing with Covid-19 in the Middle East
Political systems shape both the capacity and the motivations of political leaders in dealing with emergencies. In this paper, the authors investigate global responses to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic to identify systematic differences in different regime types, ranging from democratic to autocratic. They examine in depth how countries in the MENA region have responded to the pandemic, and compare these responses to global trends.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
The Covid-19 pandemic is not only a health challenge for English speaking countries of Central and West Africa, it is also a litmus test for the consolidation and sustainability of their democratic governance systems. In that regard, respect for constitutionalism and rule of law during emergency contexts, adopted by governments to stop the spread of the virus, remains a priority.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
German economy slowly recovering following a deep slump: economic outlook
The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The German government was able to avoid the worst by implementing measures to stabilize the domestic economy, but it can do little to counteract a slump in foreign demand. This decline in foreign demand reflects the devastating effects of the recession on the labour markets of many countries. The German economy cannot compensate for a decline of 9.4 percent in GDP in 2020, even with GDP growth of 3.0 percent in 2021.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Covid-19 i Energiewende: wpływ pandemii na niemiecką transformację energetyczną (Covid-19 and Energiewende: the impact of the pandemic on the energy transition in Germany)
According to the paper, the pandemic has had both negative and positive impact on the energy transition in Germany. The lockdown resulted in the fall in the country’s coal energy demand but has delayed investments in renewable energy as well as important political decisions on Germany’s Energiewende. In any event, the pandemic enhanced the debate on the reform of financing renewable energy and on decarbonisation investments.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Les entreprises françaises en Afrique face à la crise du Covid-19
With only 3% of Covid-19 contamination worldwide, Africa seems (as of June 26, 2020) relatively unscathed by the pandemic. That said, all 54 countries have been affected by the virus. French companies present on the continent are also impacted and many intermediate size companies are faced with immediate security and production issues; they have to manage the emergency, because the crisis has short and very short term consequences that we cannot ignore if we hope that they will perpetuate their presence there. On the other hand, while the measures are gradually being reduced, the challenge of economic recovery is essential.
PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
When more delivers less: comparing the US and French Covid-19 crisis responses
The paper compares responses to economic shocks caused by Covid-19 in France and the US and more specifically, household support packages implemented by both countries’ governments. The findings suggest that, taking into account income stabilization mechanisms and discretionary measures, the US package is almost twice as large as the French package, but it has proven less effective because of poor design and implementation.
JAQUES DELORS INSTITUTE
Crisis notebook European recovery: how to convert the try? Something is happening in Europe
The Covid-19 crisis has reshuffled the deck. It caught both the member states and the EU unawares; they were not prepared to face such a crisis, which stunned them. They began by closing the borders as if the crisis respected them, blocking the internal market linked to products required to fight the disease and showing a certain condescension towards Italy, the first country directly hit.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Once the new coronavirus pandemic is over, the EU will not be the same as before. The far-reaching political, economic, and social effects of the current crisis will override many rules and mechanisms in the EU, potentially reshaping the course of European integration. As a result of the crisis, European economies may have to be significantly restructured, and, based on current developments, it is difficult to see how the EU will emerge from the current situation as the “smaller loser” in global comparison.
BRUEGEL
A new policy toolkit is needed as countries exit Covid-19 lockdowns
Most governments have taken measures to protect vulnerable workers and firms from the worst effects of the sudden drop in activity related to Covid-19. But as lockdowns are lifted, the focus must shift, and governments in advanced economies must design measures that will limit the pain of adjustment.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Will Covid-19 prompt global ethical AI standardization?
The use of high-tech has undeniably become the latest measure of relevance in the international community. The Covid-19 crisis has prompted many countries to experiment with artificial intelligence (AI) systems more widely in order to bring the situation under control. As the main trendsetters for tech regulation and experimentation, the EU, the US, and China have shown us examples of both best practices and less successful scenarios, raising questions in terms of the ethical use of the latest technologies, data privacy, and fundamental rights.
INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AND EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
The multilateral order post-Covid: expert voices
The beginning of every year sees a rash of projections of what the next twelve months have in store for us all. But the year 2020 had not far advanced before all these projections were waste paper. So the first lesson to be learned from the cataclysm that has hit the world in the past six months is the need for humility. Many foresee the need for greater strategic autonomy, and this is understandable in view of what happened some vital supplies during the crisis. But how far can we afford to go in fragmenting the global economy? Can the objective be autarky for all?
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
The report presents the pre-existing divergences between Europe and the US, which have exacerbated during the Covid-19 pandemic because of the failure in the attempts by Europeans to involve the US in a multilateral health crisis management framework. The study illustrates US and EU health policies in response to Covid-19, underlining how the EU member states and the federated states of the US have proceeded in random order. It analyses the nature of the economic crisis caused by the pandemic. It examines the digital tax and the taxation of the activities of high tech giants such as Amazon or Facebook.
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
The field of cybersecurity with all its complexities has been steadily gaining in importance over the last decade – and now, due to the Coronavirus-induced heightened dependency on digital infrastructure this process is further accelerated. This report shows that cybersecurity has evolved into a key national security issue and gives an overview of certain aspects of the US cybersecurity landscape, by tracing policy developments from before the Covid-19 pandemic as well as current legislative considerations.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR ENTWICKLUNGSPOLITIK (DIE)
Ernährungssicherung in Krisenzeiten: Arme Entwicklungsländer sind anders
The paper analyses the immediate risks of the pandemic in the field of food security and in particular the expected immense effects on the absolutely poor. It analyses the lockdown measures in the control of the pandemic, the different starting situation in poor countries and the indirect risks from food insecurity.
INSTITUT DU DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE ET DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IDDRI)
What international policy initiatives for the prevention of infectious diseases of zoonotic origin?
This note proposes initiatives that governments could take in response to the need for international action to reduce the risks of infectious diseases within the framework of broader sustainable development policies, particularly environmental policies. These initiatives could be taken as early as this year, both at the UN and bilateral levels.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
The impact of the oil crisis on the MENA region
The paper presents the consequences of the pandemic in the MENA region, which is among the most exposed ones to fallout from a possible global recession due to the economic repercussions of the current Covid-19 pandemic and the recent collapse in the oil prices. Heavily relying on oil revenues, the MENA region oil producers will face long-term challenges from a financial, political, social and security perspective. The study analyses this situation making reference to Saudi Arabia-Iran relations and to the post-oil economic plans of some of the MENA countries.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
Covid-19 and the Syrian economy: implications for social justice
The Covid-19 pandemic has further escalated Syria’s severe economic crisis, which is marked by currency depreciation and peak rates of unemployment and poverty. More than 80 percent of the Syrian population today live below the poverty line, and many of those working are confined to the informal economy. Covid-19 has reached Syria at a time of severe hardship, and has exacerbated existing social and economic injustice throughout the country.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
Although a second wave of contamination has affected Israel since the beginning of June, the centralized and efficient management of the Covid-19 pandemic has been widely welcomed, as in the Palestinian territories where a health disaster was averted. The pandemic has in any case provided an opportunity for Benjamin Netanyahu to form an emergency government, thus ending an electoral cycle that has paralyzed the Israeli political system for over a year.
WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES
Covid-19 and the old-new politics of irregular migration from Libya
The pandemic and its consequences for irregular migration are highlighting the challenge that Libya, as a relatively wealthy but dangerous and conflict-ridden country, continues to pose to European politicians. This crisis has been spurred by a progressive increase in illegal border crossings from Libya towards Malta and Italy. This increase is a result of at least two factors. The mass joblessness among Libya’s large migrant population, caused by an economic decline due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the ongoing conflict inside the country.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
Covid-19, le djihadisme au défi d’une pandémie
As the world of science questions the responsibility for the coronavirus epidemic, radical Islam solves the conundrum of an assertion: God punishes the disbelieving people who persist in defying his authority. For the Islamic state group, we are in the presence of an “anger from God”, which has become the “nightmare of the crusaders”, as evidenced by the health balance sheet of the pandemic and the economic uncertainties linked to the deconfinement.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
When the Franco–German “couple” starts making sense again
The paper presents the recent Franco-German proposal for a 500 billion euro EU recovery fund for the Covid-19 emergency. It outlines both its strengths and the doubts that arise from the current political context and the financial uncertainties related to the fund.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
How to spend it: a proposal for a European Covid-19 recovery programme
The recovery fund proposed by the Commission marks a sea-change in European integration. Yet it will not be enough to meet the challenges Europe faces. There has been much public debate about financing, but little about the sort of concrete projects that the EU should be putting public money into.
CENTRE D’ÉTUDES PROSPECTIVES ET D’INFORMATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Les banques européennes à l’épreuve de la crise du Covid-19
Although European banks are stronger today than in the 2007-2008 financial crisis, will they be strong enough in the face of a health crisis closer to the great depression of the 1930s than the stress scenarios envisaged by the European Banking Authority for 2020? Access to central bank liquidity likely removes the risk of bank liquidity, but it is not unthinkable that a bank insolvency crisis should be managed. Failure to repay one in five loans would be enough to exhaust the current level of equity and it would be necessary to mobilize the resolution mechanism.
EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE/ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES
Stranded: the impacts of Covid-19 on irregular migration and migrant smuggling
This brief documents the impacts the Covid-19 response, coupled with border enforcement and migration restrictions have had on the journeys of migrants, refugees and asylum seekers in transit irregularly and on their communities. The brief pays specific attention to how measures against the pandemic may impact the activities of those behind irregular journeys – including migrant smugglers or facilitators.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
A Green new deal after corona: what we can learn from the financial crisis
The experience from the 2008/2009 financial crisis proves that climate-oriented economic stimulus policies not only raise investments with benefits for economic output and jobs in the near term, but can also lay the groundwork for long-term innovation and economic development aligned with environmental constraints. By introducing policies such as contracts for difference for low-carbon industrial processes and renewable energy, and green public procurement, governments can further ensure that their stimulus packages are transformative. Hence, “green stimuli” have the capacity to boost economic recovery also during the current corona crisis.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS)
The EU’s global response to the Covid-19 crisis with a focus on the Eastern Neighbourhood and Africa
With the worldwide outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, we are experiencing intense competition between global players as to who can best contain the crisis and who is a reliable international partner in the global fight against the coronavirus and the economic and social consequences it causes. More farsighted approaches, that forward the long-term goals for social, ecological and economic recovery after the crisis, and an improved information policy with stronger public relations will be necessary for the EU so that it can reliably maintain its position as the most important and partnership-oriented partner for Africa and its Eastern neighbourhood.
INSTITUT DU DÉVELOPPEMENT DURABLE ET DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IDDRI)
With a view to supporting international discussions within the UN sustainable development goals monitoring process, and to drawing attention to the aspects of the 2030 agenda most relevant to the global crisis response (health, food, livelihoods, etc), this brief provides professionals in the fields of development, diplomacy and finance with a strategic in-depth understanding of the complexity and challenges embedded in the issue of financing the 2030 agenda; it also suggests ways for more efficient financing processes in terms of principles, instruments and partnerships.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
Le « miracle » japonais face à la Covid-19: quelles réponses et quelles conséquences?
The Covid-19 epidemic and its management by Japan have highlighted several elements that make the archipelago an exception in the management and consequences of the crisis. Japan has faced the same questions as many Western countries, particularly regarding the adaptation of the health system. The measures adopted were much slower, authoritarian or orderly than in South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan. However, without applying the very restrictive “Chinese model”, Japan was able to control the Covid-19 epidemic. On May 25, 2020, less than two months after the establishment of the state of emergency, internal constraints were lifted. The main consequences of the epidemic will be economic and strategic, with a possible questioning of the rapprochement with Beijing.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
China’s responsibility for the Covid-19 pandemic: an international law perspective
The coronavirus pandemic has roiled international relations. The huge global toll of the pandemic, both in terms of deaths and economic implications, has raised the question of Chinese responsibility. This paper analyses China’s responsibility for Covid-19 under international law.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
L’action publique face à la crise du Covid-19
This report provides a first analysis of the management of the crisis in France during the four months of the health crisis, from the appearance of the first domestic cases at the end of January 2020, until the implementation of deconfinement in May. How should we look at France’s attitude during the crisis? What have been our successes? Our failures? What difficulties have been encountered by actors in the field, businesses, doctors and scientists, local communities or even senior officials? And above all, how do we prepare for the future now? What lessons can be learned from this experience to improve public action?
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Are Italian banks part of the crisis or its solution this time?
The paper analyses the banking sector in Italy, focusing on the fragilities before the pandemic and the reaction of the banks at the time of the pandemic, suggesting some possible viable solutions. The shock due to the coronavirus pandemic is likely to cause serious difficulties for the Italian banking sector, which has already been affected severely by the impact that the long European crisis of 2011-13 had on Italy’s productive and financial systems.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
The report shows the results of a survey conducted in Italy in April 2020 on a sample of 1,562 Italian with Internet access interviewed on the Covid-19 impact on society, on their preferences on greater international cooperation or national independence in dealing with the pandemic, on the need for stronger barriers to free movement in the EU, on the role of political and technical actors in crisis management, and on the role of Europe and its support for Italy, on the treatment of Italy by the EU during the crisis, on the role of China, and in the end, on their orientation toward the Chinese and American conspiracy theories.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
Covid-19 exposes Italy’s vulnerability to US-China antagonism
The paper outlines the relationship of Italy with US and China, analysing the role of the media and the action of the national parties in the government. The author suggests some possible future scenario of international cooperation suggesting that Italy could become a battlefield between the two superpowers of the 21st century.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
European identity and the test of COVID-19
The Covid-19 pandemic has re-ignited debates about European identity and solidarity, forcing EU institutions and member states to navigate the old dichotomy of national-versus-European identity and interests. The author suggests that the Covid-19 is a test for those Europeans who wish to challenge what is supposed to be normal (selfishness), given (lack of cooperation) or natural (nationalism). It is an opportunity to reimagine Europe and what it means to be “European”, both for EU citizens and other world communities.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES (FEPS)
Rebuilding after the corona crisis
The paper presents a vision for a post-corona society that is more egalitarian, resilient and sustainable, and the conditions to bring it about. The author explains how the global health crisis, which metastasised in an economic and social crisis, illustrates a crucial point: the era where the market was king, the individual the solution, and the state the problem is bankrupt, both technically and morally.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
The groundbreaking novelties of the Franco-German proposal and the misuse of the abacus
The Franco-German initiative has beaten Ursula von der Leyen to the punch and will significantly bind the Commission’s strategy. However, the scope of Merkel and Macron is so positively disruptive that it apparently pushes the possible institutional friction between the two most important EU countries and one of the main EU institutions to the background. This friction, which is part of the recurring contrast between intergovernmental and ‘EU community’ approaches, could have an impact on the approval and implementation of the recovery fund. The paper presents a detailed comparative analysis of both initiatives.
ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Social capital and the spread of Covid-19: insights from European countries
The authors explore the role of social capital in the spread of the recent Covid-19 pandemic in independent analyses for Austria, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK. They exploit within-country variation in social capital and Covid-19 cases to show that high-social-capital areas accumulated between 12% and 32% fewer Covid-19 cases per capita from mid-March until mid-May. Using Italy as a case study, they find that high-social-capital areas exhibit lower excess mortality and a decline in mobility.
TERRA NOVA
The pandemic that has struck France shows us that the solidity and resilience of the nation also rests on its infrastructures. Health infrastructures, those dedicated to the supply of energy or the collection and treatment of waste, but also the digital infrastructures that have enabled many French people to telecommute and hundreds of thousands of students to continue to learn. Finally, the transport and distribution infrastructure which has helped to avoid serious and lasting shortages. This infrastructure fabric represents the nation’s level of preparedness and goes hand in hand with the acceptance of an insurance-type cost.
HANNS-SEIDEL-STIFTUNG (HANNS SEIDEL FOUNDATION)
Deutsche Aussenpolitik nach Corona
The corona crisis has a firm grip on the world. Entire economies have been cut back, international trade has slumped, political priorities have changed radically within a few days. But while this health crisis is likely to be resolved in the foreseeable future, the consequences will continue to have an impact. It is already evident that the corona crisis is developing new dynamics and will lead to changes old trends and new priorities, fundamental debates in European and international politics.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
Good equity capitalization stabilizes small and medium enterprises during the corona-crisis
Due to the strong domestic focus of the lockdown measures against the corona pandemic, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are affected to a far greater extent than in the financial and economic crisis a decade ago, and the service sector is suffering particularly badly.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS)
Coronavirus stellt nationale und internationale Wirtschaftspolitik vor große Herausforderungen
The corona crisis is causing supply and demand shocks. In Austria, the value added drops by around 2.2 billion euros each week of the shutdown. Unemployment is rising rapidly and employment is falling sharply. The Austrian federal government is providing a package worth EUR 38 billion, which includes direct payments, guarantees and liabilities to secure corporate loans and tax deferrals. There are also additional funds for the health sector and a massive expansion of short-time work allowances. The EU leaders have agreed on a first EU package of 540 billion euros. This brief presents the measures in detail and discusses their effectiveness and possible alternatives.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE (ISPI)
By leveraging data on Covid-19, the authors propose a novel way to estimate a disease’s infected fatality rate (IFR), the true lethality of the disease, in the presence of sparse and partial information, showing that this is feasible when the disease has turned into a pandemic and data comes from a large number of countries, or regions within countries, as long as testing strategies vary sufficiently. For Italy, the method proposed by the paper estimates an IFR of 1.1% which is strongly in line with other methods. At the global level, the proposed method estimates an IFR of 1.6%. This method shows also that the IFR varies according to each country’s age structure and healthcare capacity.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
Crisis situations inevitably lead to a new critical relationship between the forces that are fading and those that are recovering. We have not finished studying the renaissance of the States which bring before their citizens the rescue of the sick and the economies, devastated by the pandemic. We could no longer expect help from multilateral frameworks whose capacity for action is reduced, or even destroyed – the World Trade Organization and the World Health Organization today – by the competition between the great powers in their midst, as illustrated once again by the current paralysis of the Security Council.
COLLEGE OF EUROPE
Réflexions sur la plainte déposée devant la CPI pour crimes contre l’humanité et de génocide pour développement d’armes de guerre biologique par la République populaire de Chine
The paper examines the complaint filed by a US citizen requesting the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to initiate an investigation under article 15 of the Rome statute to determine the criminal origin of the development, stockpiling and negligent maintaining of a variant of a type of coronavirus known as Covid-19 in Wuhan, China. The paper analyses the dual problem that raises from it, first of relevance of the purpose and second of jurisdiction of the Court for the alleged crimes.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO IΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
China and the world during the Covid-19 pandemic
This essay analyses China’s health policies before and after the outbreak of Covid-19. It discusses how the problem broke out with emphasis on mistakes made by Wuhan authorities and sketches out the subsequent response of the Chinese government to stop the contagion and share practices. It also presents different narratives used by China, the US and the EU in dealing with the pandemic and considers multilateralism a key to address world problems. It attempts to explore whether Sino-European partnerships could emerge in a period of rising uncertainty.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
Power shifts and the risk of a “crisis within the crisis”: Covid, oil and the MENA region
The paper outlines the negative impact of Covid-19 resulting in the collapse in oil prices from approximately 60 to 20 dollars per barrel between January and April 2020. It focuses on the concept that for countries affected by social unrest and financial instability before Covid-19, the challenge is mainly to limit the multidimensional impact of the pandemic. For Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries the challenge is to promote economic diversification while also allocating investment to counter oil production declines in preparation for future demand recoveries.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
As the coronavirus pandemic spread across the globe, the ECB as well as national governments in the euro area announced numerous economic policy measures to counteract the severe economic consequences of the resulting lockdowns. According to a study, the ECB’s monetary policy measures barely had a stabilizing effect on the financial markets in the short term. The results show that measures must be taken by member states together. A joint crisis mechanism, such as the European recovery plan announced by the EU, could be quite efficient.
HERTIE SCHOOL JACQUES DELORS CENTRE/BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
How to spend it right. A more democratic governance for the EU recovery and resilience facility
Under the recovery and resilience facility – the core of the EU’s new recovery instrument – 310 billion euros in additional EU spending will be allocated by the Commission to member states based on individual recovery and resilience plans (RRPs). This brief argues that the proposed governance to decide on the assessment of RRPs lacks democratic elements as parliaments are largely sidelined. This should be changed to ensure necessary political ownership at national and European level; to include a second pair of European eyes to prevent misspending; and to avoid a roll-back of EU democracy. The EP could get a veto over the Commission decision assessing individual RRPs and allocating funds. National parliaments should also have a say in the adoption of the RRP of the respective member state.
BRUEGEL
Is the Covid-19 crisis an opportunity to boost the euro as a global currency?
The euro never challenged the US dollar, and its international status declined with the euro crisis. Faced with a US administration willing to use its hegemonic currency to extend its domestic policies beyond its borders, Europe is reflecting on how to promote it currency on the global stage to ensure its autonomy. But promoting a more prominent role for the euro is difficult and involves far-reaching changes to the fabric of the monetary union.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
A Green new deal after corona: what we can learn from the financial crisis
The experience from the financial crisis in 2008/2009 proves that climate-oriented economic stimulus policies not only raise investments with benefits for economic output and jobs in the near term, but can also lay the groundwork for long-term innovation and economic development aligned with environmental constraints. “Green stimuli” have the capacity to boost economic recovery also during the current corona crisis.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
EU trade policy after the virus: some preliminary considerations
This essay analyses challenges and opportunities for Europe’s future trade policy after the end of the pandemic. As the European economies are starting to open up, many voices are starting to ask questions about Europe’s future trade policies after the end of the pandemic. Disruptions in supply chains have raised the specter of increased protectionism. Europe should be concerned about the virulent protectionism that is being pursued by the Trump administration. But how quickly will the international community regain its trust on the future US policy and commitment to a rules-based international trading system?
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Rebondir face au Covid-19 : relançons l’investissement
The deep recession that hit the French economy will leave its mark. What can we do to limit breakage? How to promote economic policies to support the recovery that will maintain the standard of living of the French by saving our fabric of businesses and the jobs they represent? This note focuses on the issue of business investment.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
The corona innovation race in science
This report is an analysis of the scientific publications on the fight against the corona pandemic and its significance for Germany as a pharmaceutical location.
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
Wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen Ungarns in der Coronakrise
Overcoming the economic consequences of the corona crisis through solidarity in the EU was the focus of a video conference in mid-May by the Federal minister of Economics Peter Altmaier and the Hungarian minister for Innovation and Technology Dr. László Palkovics. As a consequence of the current economic predicament, considerations are being made in Europe to shorten the global supply chains in favour of regional production. This could be a good opportunity for some Central European countries to attract foreign investment to their country.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)/ BALKANS IN EUROPE POLICY ADVISORY GROUP
The Western Balkans in times of the global pandemic
This analysis establishes the Covid-19 pandemic as a critical juncture, a crisis that can permanently shake up institutions and societies. There are considerable dangers beyond the impact of the pandemic on human lives, ranging from an economic crisis which could turn out to be worse than the one in 2008/9, to a heightened crisis of democracy and a geopolitical shift. None of these developments are inevitable and some of the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic for the Western Balkans can be mitigated.
BRUEGEL
Covid19 and emerging economies
What to expect in the short and medium term? Covid-19 will consequently push for a quick reshuffling of the global value chain away from the emerging world. Covid-19 has ravaged the Chinese economy in the first quarter of the year and it is now doing the very same with Europe and the US. As for the emerging world, Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India, Singapore and Mexico have seen rapid contagion. Emerging countries are facing the pandemic with more limited public health capabilities.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
While powerful megatrends like global trade tensions, climate change, new technology innovations, and the current Covid-19 crisis impact all parts of the globe, the reality of those impacts – and therefore the necessary responses to them – are inherently driven by unique regional characteristics and the regional enabling environments.
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
Pandemie im Herzen Europas. Wie die Benelux-Staaten in eine neue Normalität starten
70 years after the Schuman declaration, the EU is going through turbulent times. The “Schengen agreement”, which provides for open internal borders and free movement, was temporarily suspended and the 25th anniversary of this European milestone became a side note. This caused a sensation all over Europe and presented citizens with long-forgotten challenges, but above all in Schengen itself. The Luxembourg community, like the entire Benelux region, benefits greatly from open borders and cross-border cooperation.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE
European fund for economic recovery from the corona crisis. Ten questions and answers on the Franco-German proposal
Germany and France have proposed a European recovery fund of € 500 bn based on large loans taken out by the EU to be transferred exclusively as grants to EU member states particularly affected by the corona crisis. The legal construction still has to be sufficiently clarified and, due to the resistance of some EU countries (frugal four), implementation in the proposed form does not appear certain.
BRUEGEL
The European Central Bank in the Covid-19 crisis: whatever it takes, within its mandate
To keep the euro-area economy afloat, the ECB has put in place a large number of measures since the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis. This response has triggered fears of a future increase in inflation. However, the ECB’s new measures and the resulting increase in the size of its balance sheet, even if it were to be permanent, should not restrict its ability to achieve its price-stability mandate, within its legal obligations.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
Schule in Zeiten der Pandemie Empfehlungen für die Gestaltung des Schuljahres 2020/21
The corona pandemic and its effects represent a turning point. This applies to public life and in particular to the area of education – and above all to students, their parents, teachers, school administrators, education policy and administration. They all reacted with great effort and commitment to the radically and rapidly changing situation and worked out short-term solutions under the most difficult conditions. It is already clear that beyond that, the upcoming school year 2020/21 will not be a “normal” one either.
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
Bosnien und Herzegowina – Situationsbeschreibung. Geteilter Staat – auch in der Corona-Krise
How is Bosnia and Herzegovina dealing with the corona crisis? There was no joint control of Covid-19. Even now everyone decides for themselves – a body for the entire country has not been formed. A coordination of measures was not noticeable. Fortunately, the numbers of those affected remained low. 152 people died of Covid-19 in Bosnia and Herzegovina, almost 2,000 people have recovered, and the number of infected people is less than 3,000. The number of newly infected people is very low.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
Addressing the Covid-19 pandemic: policy responses across Eastern Europe
The world holds its breath as Covid-19 continues to spread and challenge local health care systems as well as local economies. The focus of international media has mostly been on China and then Western Europe and the US. However, countries around the Baltic Sea, Eastern Europe and the Caucasus differ from the West with respect to their socio-economic development, trade integration, and political systems.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
COVID-19 risks outlook: a preliminary mapping and its implications
As countries seek to recover, some of the more lasting economic, environmental, societal and technological challenges and opportunities are only beginning to become visible. It is vital to anticipate the emerging risks generated by the repercussions from the pandemic. This report provides a preliminary picture of which familiar risks may be amplified by the crisis and which new ones may emerge, recognizing that key issues remain to be analysed – health and geopolitics among them.
BRUEGEL
COVID-19’s reality shock for external-funding dependent emerging economies
COVID-19 is by far the biggest challenge policymakers in emerging economies have had to deal with in recent history. Beyond the potentially large negative impact on these countries’ fiscal accounts, and the related solvency issues, worsening conditions for these countries’ external funding are a major challenge.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Updated strategic assessment for Israel for 2020 and recommendations for the new government
The global, regional, and internal implications of the coronavirus are still not fully clear, but Israel’s 35th government will have no 100-day grace period. It must quickly restore the economy to full activity, despite the presence of the virus and the possibility of a renewed outbreak.
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO
Covid 19 and north Cyprus: pandemic, politics and non-recognized struggles
This paper aims to shed light on north Cyprus’s struggle against COVID-19 and the effects of the Cyprus problem on that effort. It evaluates the problems of this de facto state in its efforts to deal with a global pandemic, including reflection on relations with its sponsor state, Turkey. It also examines the stances of the EU, WHO, the UN, and other international organizations towards the struggle of people in unrecognized entities in the context of a health crisis that should prompt more international cooperation.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Narodowe systemy pomocy gospodarczej po Covid-19. Europa zjednoczona czy podzielona? (National economic support systems after Covid-19. Is Europe united or divided?)
The paper analyses anti-crisis economic and fiscal measures introduced by member states as well as coordination efforts taken at the EU level. Contrary to critical opinions of the EU’s reaction to Covid-19, the author concludes that European institutions act efficiently by providing member states with adequate support.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Covid-19 and the climate – energy nexus
Analysing the Covid-19 pandemic’s impact on the climate-energy nexus raises three important questions. What does this global health and economic crisis mean for the future of fossil fuels, particularly oil? Because of the drop in economic activity, greenhouse gas emissions have plummeted, but how can we ensure a structural decline that is aligned with the Paris agreement? How can we embed the ideas of a “just transition” within the broader post-pandemic “green recovery”?
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
The impact of COVID-19 on cyber crime and state-sponsored cyber activities
Through the increased use of digital applications and the use of poorly protected private IT devices when working from home, the Covid-19 pandemic illustrates digital security risks and highlights the need for taking adequate action to protect IT systems in critical infrastructures. Cyber risks can be reduced by implementing for instance: programs for education; prevention and digital literacy must be strengthened and the resources of law enforcement agencies to prevent and investigate cyber crime must be enhanced by targeted recruitment of young staff.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The world is experiencing an unprecedented crisis that is causing chaos in the global economy, disrupting supply chains, and transforming society. The new reality is accelerating business model transformation at a faster pace than ever before to ensure existential survival in a crisis for which no one was prepared.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
The coronavirus crisis may speed up several dynamics of global and regional supply chains. Novel technologies improve the visibility of the entire supply chain and make corporate manufacturing more resilient to unexpected disruptions. Digital supply network and similar concepts predict that the emergence of the data-driven global economy will proceed.
MTA KÖZGAZDASÁG- ÉS REGIONÁLIS TUDOMÁNYI KUTATÓKÖZPONT – VILÁGGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC AND REGIONAL STUDIES HAS – INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMICS)
Coronavirus crisis – trade effects for the Iberian and Visegrád countries
This paper describes some characteristics of the foreign trade of two European semi-peripheric regions, i.e. the Iberian countries and the Visegrád countries, and it draws conclusions for the coronavirus crisis-effects. Visegrád countries are more integrated into the global production chains with a more significant weight of automotive and electronic industry in trade compared to the Iberian economies. This has caused high trade dynamism but high dependence, concentration too.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Norwegia wobec pandemii (Norway in the face of the pandemic)
Norway, as a rich country, is trying to tackle the pandemic with the respect for its citizens’ habits and values. The government has increased social protection, thus maintaining high levels of public trust. However, Norway is facing huge economic challenges as the collapse of oil markets due to Covid-19 has had impact not only on the country’s oil and gas industry but also on the value of its currency.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Gospodarka pod respiratorem. Skutki pandemii i załamania się cen ropy naftowej dla Rosji (Economy on ventilator. The consequences of the pandemic and the oil price drop in Russia)
The article examines economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in Russia, assessing that Kremlin’s support for Russian businesses is insufficient and mostly targets state-owned companies. The crisis highlights the risks related to dependency of Russian economy on oil but will not lead to a change of country’s economic policy nor to departure from state capitalism.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Oroszország és a koronavírus-pandémia
In recent days, a record number of new coronavirus cases have been identified in Russia. Due to the epidemiological experiences of the country, the coverage of the national healthcare system and the relative Russian self-sufficiency, the country is in a good position to successfully manage the pandemic. This paper considers whether the power of the president could be weakened and whether Russia’s international reputation may be affected.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
The Covid-19 challenge in post-Soviet breakaway statelets
The threat of coronavirus looms large in six self-declared republics that have broken away from post-Soviet states. War and isolation have corroded health care infrastructure, while obstructing the inflow of assistance. International actors should work with local and regional leaders to let life-saving aid through.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Covid-19 in Somalia: a public health emergency in an electoral minefield
The coronavirus pandemic could pose a huge challenge to Somalia. To manage the crisis, the federal government should reach out to and coordinate with political rivals. It should avoid a unilateral postponement of elections due in November, which could trigger a violent backlash.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
The ECB in the COVID-19 crisis: whatever it takes, within its mandate
The response of the ECB to the COVID-19 crisis has triggered fears of a future increase in inflation. This brief discusses the risks that the ECB is unable to fulfil its price-stability mandate, and also whether these new measures respect legal limits set by the EU Treaties. It concludes that the measures introduced by the ECB during the crisis and the resulting increase in the size of its balance sheet, even if it were to be permanent, should not restrict its ability to achieve its price-stability mandate in the future, within its legal obligations.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
The recovery fund: legal issues
The article analyses the recovery fund from the legal point of view. It argues that the guidelines provided by the EC are certainly relevant, yet, the basic points of the new instrument are still to be defined. It presents some legal issues which the Commission will have to consider regarding the general framework, the financing and the disbursements of the fund.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
The paper examines the state aid measures that member states have implemented to combat the economic effects of Covid-19. It analyses the case law regarding member states options to grant state aid to compensate companies for the impact of “exceptional occurrences” and “serious economic disturbance”. It compares the main points of the temporary framework, adopted by the Commission in March to facilitate the granting of state aid in response to Covid-19, to the one of 2008 following the then financial crisis.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES (FEPS)
Rebuilding after the corona crisis
The paper presents a vision for a post-corona society that is more egalitarian, resilient and sustainable, and the conditions to bring it about. The author explains how the global health crisis, which metastasised in an economic and social crisis, illustrates a crucial point: the era where the market was king, the individual the solution, and the state the problem is bankrupt, both technically and morally.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
Migrations et COVID-19: un quitte ou double pour l’Europe ?
Since 2015 and the arrival of one million migrants on the European coasts, everyone has been on the lookout for the next «migration crisis». The Eastern and Southern shores of the Mediterranean were being scrutinized in Europe. In the US, the emergency was decreed at the border with Mexico, worried in turn by the flows coming from Central America. This migration issue had finally crystallized questions about the benefits of openness and multilateralism or, conversely, those of closure and “realism”.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Parliamentary oversight in the health crisis
Article 15 of the European Convention on Human Rights opens the possibility for signatory states to derogate from their obligations by invoking exceptional circumstances, but Rik Daems, President of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, has insisted on the need for parliamentary oversight of the measures taken by most States in response to the health crisis.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
Nuclear planet: the NPT and Covid-19
Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which this year celebrates the 50th anniversary of its entry into force, has had its five-year review conference postponed for the first time in its history. This is not the only major diplomatic event that cannot be held this Spring. The postponement of the tenth NPT review conference comes with its share of hesitations, uncertainties and other issues.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTER
COVID-19 tracing app in Serbia. How to pave the road with trust, transparency and inclusion
Governments across the globe are increasingly using digital tools to accelerate the tracking of people infected with COVID-19 and their contacts as a key measure to prevent the pandemic’s spread. Among potential solutions, contact tracing mobile applications have emerged as the most used and discussed, and it is likely that many governments, including Serbia’s, will include them in national public health efforts.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
Le COVID-19 au Sahel : pandémie lente mais impacts multiples
In West Africa, the first case of COVID-19 was recorded in Nigeria at the end of February. Gradually, the virus spread to cities and the countryside of the region’s 17 countries. However, the virus was developing very slowly in the Sahelian region, with around 4,500 cases and 189 deaths as of 12 May
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
COVID-19 : le monde d’après est déjà là
Josep Borrell notes that the unpredictable Covid-19 crisis raises fundamental questions at several levels. It questions a broken global governance, overwhelmed by national selfishness, and the temptations of closure. It calls for the mobilisation of the instruments of resilience of democracies, and of a EU that plays its future, especially in the confidence of peoples.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
European solidarity in times of crisis: a legacy to develop in the face of COVID-19
Now more than ever, the fight against coronavirus encourages an analysis of the foundations and limits of solidarity between the member states of the EU, just as the 70th anniversary of the Schuman declaration, often cited for its call for “concrete achievements that first create a de facto solidarity”.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
European technological sovereignty: a response to the Covid-19 crisis?
The issue of European technological sovereignty burst into the political debate in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis. In the face of the supply difficulties and threats to technology highlighted by the crisis, it obeys an instinctive reflex of willingness to regain control and the possibility of choice. This political statement, taken up by the Croatian Presidency of the EU, opens new perspectives but also raises a series of problematic questions.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
The COVID-19 pandemic and European security: between damages and crises
The article examines the negative effects of the Covid-19 pandemic in the defence field and from a budgetary, industrial and politico-strategic point of view, particularly in Europe. Depending on the pandemic’s duration, its economic consequences and national and EU responses, effects may range from contained damages to a much wider European security crisis.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES (FEPS)
Coronavirus: navigating a new storm with an old boat?
The paper analyses how the financial reforms undertaken by the EU after the 2008 crisis have legally and financially limited the State in its ability to intervene in many areas as well as raising barriers to its protective role. It explores how the macroeconomic and financial architecture placed the financial system and macroeconomic stability on the highest pedestal of European objectives, relegating the rest of the social objectives provided for in the Treaties of the Union to a second category of importance, always subordinated to the achievement of the former.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
From strategic autonomy to the internationalization of the Euro
The article investigates the severe economic implications for Europe after the COVID-19 crisis which will impact the financial and economic ambitions of the Union, including the goal of increasing the internationalization of the euro, a key dimension of the Union’s ambitions for strategic autonomy, one which holds internal and external dimensions, spanning the economic and political domain. The EU’s strategic response plan cannot therefore ignore the internal political dimensions behind an international currency as the euro.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Towards a sustainable European ‘Marshall plan’: how to turn the crisis into an opportunity
The brief contributes to the debate on how to fund the national fiscal policies of the euro-area countries, required to deal with the economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis. The paper presents a new massive European investment plan (Marshall plan), other than InvestEU, aimed at covering a part of the increased public spending in various euro-countries, thus reducing the increases in these countries’ government debt.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Response to Covid-19: mechanisms against unemployment
The report describes the new tools to be introduced in the EU to support the economy and the strengthening of the existing ones to deal with the very serious emergency caused by the Covid-19 shock. It concentrates on the description of SURE (Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency) and the European unemployment benefit scheme , comparing the two and analysing their functioning in detail.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES (FEPS
The paper examines how to achieve sustainability and equity between the people, regions, countries and generations of Europe in a post-Covid-19 era. The current health crisis has opened up a new understanding of the interrelation between humans, wildlife, ecosystems and the meaning of well-being and healthy living. Consequently, a coherent and cohesive Green Deal that incorporates the social, environmental and economic aspects should be a central element of any recovery programme.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Coronavirus: globalisation is not the cause but the remedy
While the Covid-19 pandemic is unfolding in all its violence, “globalisation”, to read more than one, is said to be the great culprit for what is happening to us, whether it has been the lightning speed of the virus’ spread, the impotence of States to stop its progression, the inability of “capitalism” to produce medical equipment or the madness of stock market speculation.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
COVID-19: a stress test for international development cooperation
The article investigates the COVID-19 from an international development cooperation point of view. It analyses the action of the international actors and the obstacles that international development cooperation must overcome. The values of solidarity and mutual responsibility, fundamental pillars of European integration and external action, are presently at stake. The EU should play an important role in leading efforts to build more effective and inclusive international development platforms.
THE EUROPEAN THINK TANKS GROUP (ETTG)
EU humanitarian aid: caught between nexus and independence
The EU is facing increasingly complex and protracted crises, massive humanitarian consequences of conflicts, climate change, and exacerbated humanitarian needs as a result of COVID-19. These challenges require bold and effective responses from the new leadership of the EU. This brief addresses inter alia the tensions between the Commission’s ambition to be a geopolitical actor and to better respond to multidimensional crises through a ‘nexus approach’ and the strong needs-based humanitarian assistance the EU provides.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Afrika a COVID-19 pandémia szorításában
The reality of everyday life in Africa is different from the European, Asian and American contexts, so if current precautions against Covid-19 are to be effective, the authorities must also take into account the traditional socio-cultural environment and characteristics of the regions in question. Local African communities having a lot of experience related to devastating diseases must take all measures and regulations seriously. This is important not only for Africa, but also for the international community.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
This time is different. The “COVID-shock” and future of the global oil market
Global oil demand is dropping due to the recession induced by the Covid-19 shut down of economic activity and transport in the most industrialized countries, while global supply is increasing due to the “oil price war” triggered by the Saudi decision on 7 March to offer discounts and maximize production. This article investigates the similarities and differences between the oil “counter-shock” of 1985/86 and the present crisis.
EUROPEN POLICY INSTITUTE NETWORK
EU crisis response in tackling Covid-19 – Views from the member states
The crisis caused by the spread of Covid-19 has demonstrated how difficult European cooperation can be, especially in policy areas where the EU has only a legal competence to support member states. Some commentators have suggested that this marks the death knell of European integration, and even the most optimistic of observers recognise it as one of the greatest challenges the EU has ever faced in terms of crisis management and demonstrating supranational added value.
College of Europe
How relevant? The EU’s ‘Geopolitical’ Commission and the response to the Covid-19 pandemic
The Covid-19 pandemic constitutes an unprecedented challenge for the EU, posing existential internal as well as external threats to the European integration project. To seize the momentum, the EC needs to act consistently with the geopolitical approach put forward by President von der Leyen. Internally, it must promote cohesion and unity among member states and coordinate a joint European response to the sanitary, political, and socio- economic challenges. Externally, it must join efforts with like-minded members of the international community to establish a robust system of multilateral crisis management tackling the multiple dimensions of the crisis.
FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION POLITIQUE
Crises highlight strengths that were taken for granted and weaknesses that have been overlooked. During the COVID-19 crisis, we see how precious infrastructure is and what the risks of under-supply are. The single market has created the second largest economy in the world. Labor mobility is essential to the vitality of European cities. Reopening the borders is only the first step, which is also delicate. By strengthening the single market, including the development of strategic industries and technologies, Europe can show that cooperation between democracies is the most effective in making societies safer.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
The EU facing the coronavirus: a political urgency to embody European solidarity
The extent of the health crisis and the resulting severe economic recession call for a collective response from European leaders, with solidarity as the rallying force. The implementation of European solidarity relies for instance on funds and programmes financed by the European budget. However, the implementation of European solidarity is limited when it comes to healthcare. The paper argues that as we are facing a challenge of an unprecedented scale that is shared by all twenty seven members, we need more concrete articulations of European solidarity.
WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FO EUROPEAN STUDIES
Whatever it takes, for as long as is needed: mapping a new European recovery programme
At its core, the Coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy. However, it has also become clear that the negative economic and social impacts are deeper and broader than were first anticipated. The continuing spread of this virus and the required measures to contain it have resulted in a concurrent slowdown in all major global economies. This represents an unprecedented challenge to the economic integrity of the EU, its constituent member states, and the global trading framework.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES (FEPS)
Debt monetization and EU recovery bonds
The brief examines the ways for fighting the Covid-19 emergency and re-launching the European economy. It highlights some peculiar characteristics, from an economic point of view, of the current Covid-19 crisis. It looks at its exogenous nature with respect to Eurozone countries, as well as at the complex mix of supply and demand shocks it entails. It suggests two intertwined policy measures in order to tackle the emergency phase of the crisis and the subsequent recovery.
FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION POLITIQUE
Après le Covid-19 le transport aérien en Europe: Le temps de la décision
The Covid-19 crisis will accelerate the structural changes that air transport has been undergoing in Europe for twenty years, marked by the rise of low cost players. The latter have significant financial resources and will take advantage of the crisis to operate geographic growth and thus dominate the European market. This expansion will be achieved in particular by external growth operations, by taking over the assets of bankrupt or attrition companies.
WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES
Covid-19 and technology in the EU: think bigger than the Alps
One of the most pertinent questions posed during the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak is whether technology can be successfully utilised to mitigate the spread of the virus or otherwise limit its impact on everyday life. This brief takes stock of the technological measures taken in several Asian countries as a reaction to the outbreak and examines the recent response of EU member states. The text also maps out workable solutions and important future considerations on the digital front for the EU.
THE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL & EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
Military cooperation in a time of Covid-19
The paper analyses the patterns of military cooperation in Europe, reflecting variations in the security and defence policies of European states. It examines the different composition and roles of the EU and NATO, as well as the more recent European intervention initiative. It examines the initial impact of the coronavirus pandemic on this policy area, and argues that future patterns of cooperation will depend on how the pandemic affects the evolution of immediate threats in the European region, changes in military technology, and geopolitical rivalry in the multipolar world order.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
Covid–19: a stress test for international development cooperation
The article investigates the COVID-19 from an international development cooperation point of view. It analyses the action of the international actors and the obstacles that international development cooperation must overcome. The values of solidarity and mutual responsibility, fundamental pillars of European integration and external action, are presently at stake. The EU should play an important role in leading efforts to build more effective and inclusive international development platforms.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
Az új típusú koronavírus lehetséges hatásai Latin-Amerika politikai és gazdasági folyamataira
In March, the majority of Latin American governments introduced swift and decisive measures to reduce corporate contacts. Exceptions to this were Brazil, Mexico and Nicaragua, where the political leadership has not taken seriously the threat posed by COVID-19. The economic downturn is almost certain, but at the same time, given Latin American export and import structures, it may not be as severe as the recession unfolding in Europe. Serious international assistance has so far only come from China, and its political impact could be significant in the future.
CLINGENDAEL NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Pandemic or pandemonium? Covid-19 and conflict in the Middle East
The Middle East was already plagued by war, famine and death in the form of the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars, the Israeli occupation of Palestine, the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as the US, radical extremism, the Kurdish question and Iraq’s many travails. The outbreak of Covid-19 added pestilence to this trio. The purpose of the brief is twofold: to examine the longer-term impact of the virus on political tensions and conflict in the region; and to explore opportunities for innovative conflict resolution that might be seized in the wake of Covid-19.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
The COVID-19 pandemic and European security: between damages and crises
The article examines the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the defence field and from a budgetary, industrial and politico-strategic point of view, particularly in Europe. Depending on the pandemic’s duration, its economic consequences and national and EU responses, effects may range from contained damages to a much wider European security crisis.
WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES
The EU’s security and defence policy: the impact of the coronavirus
For the foreseeable future, EU governments will be preoccupied with dealing with the immediate socio-economic consequences of COVID-19. As for the EU’s security and defence policy, COVID-19 is likely to extinguish the unprecedented dynamism that has characterised its development since 2016. Its most immediate impact is likely to be decreased funding for several new initiatives such as the European Defence Fund.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
How the coronavirus pandemic affects the EU’s geopolitical agenda
The EU’s leadership announced last year that it would play a more geopolitical role and learn to speak the “language of power”. One year later, a global pandemic severely affects this geopolitical ambition. This policy paper reviews the pandemic’s geopolitical implications for the EU with a focus on three key relationships: China, the US and Africa. It argues that the EU should fill the global leadership vacuum that others leave and makes proposals for concrete articulations of this role in the pandemic’s global aftermath.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
Time for a European climate and Sustainable Development Bank
The article examines the role of the EU as a key global donor and suggests that, with the Covid-19 crisis, the EU should find new ways to deal with development finance to re-brand its visibility as a strong and united developmental actor, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa against the competitors China and Russia, and focusing on the creation of a truly innovative European Climate and Sustainable Development Bank.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
A koronavírus-járvány és a migráció helyzete a MENA és a nyugat-balkáni régióban
It is worth examining how the COVID-10 epidemic affects asylum seekers/ migrants / refugees already in south-eastern European camps and the Balkan migration route, and how migration from the MENA region risks and whether a new wave of refugees could be triggered by the coronavirus epidemic. This analysis points out that those coming from North Africa may pose a challenge to the EU’s fight against the epidemic. The situation on the Balkan route is now stable, but the sudden rise in infection rates in the camps, especially in Greece, and the disorganized asylum agreement with Turkey could pose new problems for the EU in the future.
HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
COVID-19: the urgent need for stricter foreign investment controls
The global pandemic is shaking up the EU’s agenda and Europeans are eagerly waiting for the October 2020 deadline to set up the EU’s foreign direct investment screening mechanism. Whether the recession that is triggered by the health crisis is severe but temporary or whether it is a shock that brings about structural change in the global economy, the weakening position of European companies will create many opportunities for corporate takeovers at bargain prices. The 2008 crisis has shown that strategic assets must be protected against investments that undermine the strategic autonomy of a member state or the single market.
ROBERT SCHUMAN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES/EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
Export restrictions: a negative-sum policy response to the COVID-19 crisis
Many countries, including China, European member states, the EU, India and the US have put in place measures to restrict exports of medical products as part of their response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective is to allocate domestic supplies to national healthcare systems and citizens. Experience with widespread use of export restrictions by food exporting countries in times of market disruption and supply shortages suggests a priority for the G20 should be to work with industry to put in place systems to enhance access to information on production capacity, investments to boost supplies and address supply chain bottlenecks affecting production and trade in essential medical supplies.
FONDATION POUR L’INNOVATION POLITIQUE
Avant le COVID-19 le transport aérien en Europe: un secteur déjà fragilisé
The Covid-19 crisis constitutes an unprecedented shock for world air transport. According to the head of the IATA, it is even “the worst crisis in the history of aviation”. April estimates show that air companies may see their revenues decrease this year by 55% compared to the previous year. Assuming travel restrictions last until June 2020, this will represent a shortfall of more than $ 310 billion for airlines alone. In addition, the resumption of post-Covid-19 air traffic risks being very gradual, with a return to normal expected in the best of cases only in 2021.
KÜLÜGYI ÉS KÜLGAZDASÁGI INTÉZET (INSTITUTE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE)
A polgári légi közlekedésben várható változások az új koronavírus okozta járvány következtében
As a result of the measures introduced to curb the new coronavirus epidemic, civil aviation, in particular passenger traffic, has bottomed out. As a result of the large-scale shutdown for months, a significant transformation is expected in the sector which is still difficult to determine, but it will undoubtedly affect airlines, airports, aircraft manufacturing, other areas related to aviation, and even the tourism sector. The question is how the epidemiological situation will develop in the future and to what extent it will allow states to lift existing travel restrictions.
EVROPSKÉ HODNOTY (EUROPEAN VALUES)
Lessons learned and best practices from the Czech Republic: COVID-19
The Czech Republic entered the fight against Covid-19 a few stages earlier than other countries in Eastern Europe. Czech civil society has already shown a high degree of innovation, creativity, voluntarism, and solidarity when it comes to the fight against this disease. This paper compiles the best practices and lessons learned by Czech civil society and offers them as a ‘shareware toolkit’ to other countries.
EUROPEAN THINK-TANK NETWORK ON CHINA
Covid-19 and Europe-China relations: a country-level analysis
The current crisis has simultaneously brought Europe and China into closer cooperation, pushed them further apart, and seemingly underlined the fractures that exist within Europe on how to approach an increasingly influential China. The Covid-19 crisis shows an increasingly audacious China: eager to show leadership and no longer apprehensive to throw mud when provoked. The paper argues that Sino-Dutch relations has become a topic that raises fundamental questions about privacy, loyalties and strategic autonomy that are far from being answered.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Context matters – Why Africa should tailor its own measures to fight COVID-19
This brief identifies political, economic and social risks related to coronavirus responses in Africa and emphasises the disproportionate burden carried by women. It argues that localised measures, which include dialogue, transparency and flexibility, may be the only realistic way forward, while underlining the need for wealthier states to provide generous aid packages, debt cancellations and continued investments in order for Africa to pull through yet another challenge.
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY MANAGEMENT
Can COVID-19 create momentum for sustainable and resilient food systems?
COVID-19 can be a turning point towards building more resilient and sustainable societies. At this moment, global and national economies have come to an abrupt standstill. Suddenly, economic growth is not sacred anymore. To protect the weakest members of our societies, we are willing to make enormous sacrifices. Reconciling other values with economic growth is also needed if we want to meet the sustainable development goals on achieving zero hunger and greater environmental sustainability.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The great lockdown: was it worth it?
This policy insight takes a closer look at the actual medical care expenses engendered by the pandemic so far and a bottom-up calculation of hospitalisation costs and finds that the economic costs of the great lockdown, while huge, might still be lower than the medical costs that an unchecked spread of the virus would have generated. There might thus be no need to assign an economic value to the lives saved to reach the conclusion that an unchecked spread of Covid-19 would have led to even higher costs than the great lockdown.
WILFRIED MARTENS CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN STUDIES
Looking beyond coronabonds: what Covid-19 means for the future of the Eurozone
Two economic implications of Covid-19 are clear: there will be a recession and budget deficits will have to soar. This note draws some implications beyond the immediate health concerns. In many ways, they challenge the architecture of the Eurozone. Either the architecture will change or the Eurozone as we know it will cease to exist. During the sovereign debt crisis from 2010 to 2015, the architecture was changed just as the Eurozone was on the verge of losing one or more members, with unmeasurable consequences. Will history repeat itself?
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The end of ‘business as usual’? COVID-19 and the European Green Deal
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a clear and drastic effect on our daily lives and political priorities. But what implications does it have for the EU’s climate action and the Von der Leyen Commission’s flagship policy, the European Green Deal? The crisis may be a ‘make or break’ moment for the EU to act on climate change through its recovery plan.
BRUEGEL
Racing against COVID-19: a vaccines strategy for Europe
This contribution proposes a staged support scheme to tackle the COVID-19 vaccine challenge and a moon shot programme to meet the challenge of future pandemics. The fast development of vaccines is an essential part of the long-term solution to COVID-19, but vaccine development has high costs and carries the risk of high failure rates.
Vaccines should ultimately be widely available to all who need them at low cost.
EUROPEAN POLICY INSTITUTES NETWORK / CLINGENDAEL INSTITUTE
EU crisis response in tackling Covid-19: views from the member states
The crisis caused by the spread of Covid-19 has demonstrated how difficult European cooperation can be, especially in policy areas where the EU has only a legal competence to support member states. Some commentators have suggested that this marks the death knell of European integration, and even the most optimistic of observers recognise it as one of the greatest challenges the EU has ever faced in terms of crisis management and demonstrating supranational added value.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Le droit d’exception, une perspective de droit comparé – Espagne: état d’alerte
This document aims to examine the right of exception in different states through the lens of comparative law. The country in question here is Spain. There is a particular focus on the legal foundations for emergency measures that may be adopted during a crisis such as that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
No going back. Post-corona reconstruction programme
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus proposes a plan of economic reconstruction after Covid-19. He underlines that despite the massive damage, the pandemic offers us an unparalleled opportunity. The big question that we have to answer is: do we take the world back to where it was before coronavirus came? Or, we redesign the world? Decision is entirely ours.
CEPII
Impôts des multinationales après la crise sanitaire: pour un taux de taxe effectif minimum
There are many lessons to be learned from the coronavirus crisis. The current situation will lead everyone to rethink the endowments and the functioning of health systems. These services have been underfunded in most countries. Certain multinationals which have adopted tax avoidance measures for years will receive public aid, which will reinforce the feeling of injustice among the population. This paper argues that the establishment of a minimum effective tax rate on the profits of multinational enterprises would help address these two concerns.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Free movement within the Schengen area has been challenged in recent years by national measures: from internal border checks after the ‘migration crisis’ to the closure of borders in the Covid-19 crisis. This is the first time in the history of Schengen that member states have categorically refused entry to other EU citizens who are not registered residents or cross-border workers.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
This paper examines the legality of restrictions on intra-EU and international traffic of persons introduced in the name of COVID-19. It provides a typology of measures including the reintroduction of internal border controls, restrictions of specific international traffic modes and intra-EU and international travel bans. These measures pose fundamental questions as to the raison d’être of the EU, and the foundations of the single market, the Schengen system and European citizenship.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
The economic impact of COVID-19 on the EU: from the frying pan into the fire
The world is facing an unprecedented economic crisis due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. At a time when the first instinct is to focus on the national level and greater sovereignty and self-reliance, the best strategy to answer the crisis lies in greater cooperation. This paper analyses the onset of this crisis and provides sound predictions of future economic impacts by applying lessons from previous recessions.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Protecting employment in the time of coronavirus: what is the EU’s €100 billion going to buy?
This paper analyses the Commission proposal to establish SURE, the ‘European instrument for temporary support to mitigate unemployment risks in an emergency’. It makes the point that the scheme should be seen, first and foremost, as a proof of European solidarity to counter hostile propaganda from Russia and China about the EU’s ineffectiveness. SURE explicitly refers to itself as the forerunner of a future European unemployment insurance scheme.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Beyond corona: getting EU economic security right
The corona crisis, the US-China great power competition and lacklustre international rules vividly demonstrate the vulnerability of economic interdependence. For the vast benefits of a globalised economy to continue to outweigh its risks, policies to build greater resilience are necessary. For the EU, the unprecedented events also offer an opportunity to forge a new economic security approach to better manage its dependencies in strategic sectors.
CEPII
Covid-19: has the time come for mainstream macroeconomics to rehabilitate money printing?
The scale of public expenditure to be incurred in the Covid-19 health crisis is raising heated debates about the appropriate funding. Monetization is currently undergoing a surprising rehabilitation. This brief apart from theoretical insights examines how current mainstream macroeconomics can be used to rehabilitate the use of monetization of public spending. It draws attention to the particular democratic challenges implied by such a policy in the Euro area context, in terms of balance of powers between European institutions.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
Europe’s path to strategic recovery: brace, empower and engage
The COVID-19 crisis has not only heightened but also highlighted Europe’s vulnerability to global challenges and disorder. The pandemic risks amplifying geopolitical competition, which is undermining multilateral cooperation. Discussion on a recovery fund should not be limited to the financial dimension, but instead thought of in terms of ‘grand strategy’. Europeans should not only craft a decisive response to the pandemic but also use it as a springboard to reinforce the EU and its domestic power base on the global stage.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Ten technologies to fight coronavirus
From synthetic biology to artificial intelligence and from blockchain technologies to nanotechnology, a wide range of technological applications are being deployed to combat COVID-19. Are they safe and effective? Have they been tested before in a public health emergency context? Does their use involve risks and threaten our values and rights?
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
How to rebound stronger from COVID-19: resilience in manufacturing and supply systems
The COVID-19 global crisis continues to disrupt manufacturing and global supply chains with severe consequences for society, businesses, consumers, and the global economy. What short term actions do companies take to ensure business continuity and protect employees? How do they prepare for the rebound and increase the resilience in their manufacturing and supply systems? What are forever changes that companies need to adapt to, to ensure long-term success?
EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DEVELOPMENT POLICY MANAGEMENT
The challenge of scaling up the European Union’s global response to COVID-19
Over the past few weeks, the EU has been mobilising its full firepower to address the COVID-19 crisis within its borders. Yet, in facing a global pandemic that knows no borders, it is in Europe’s interest to mount an effective global response at scale. The EU and its member states should try to build a comprehensive global approach by coordinating and linking their assets – both internally and externally.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
European energy transition after Covid-19: from Green deal to ‘Gas deal’?
The COVID-19 crisis has created an unprecedented situation in Europe. Most European countries declared lockdown for their population, triggering an immediate slowdown in economic production. This situation will have consequences over national and European policies and strategies such as the Green Deal. As the Green Deal would mean an in-depth change in national energy mixes and landscapes all over Europe, it was intended to be a priority area for funding. Now being put at risk due to the foreseeable economic recession, there is a need to decide to go on with the Green Deal objectives or to adapt them.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Wzburzone wody – europejski rynek gazu w czasie pandemii
The pandemic and the containment measures are already influencing the functioning of gas markets. Demand for natural gas has decreased, while its oversupply is still growing. As a result, natural gas prices are falling to unprecedented levels. The situation is detrimental to LNG suppliers, mostly from the US, but affects traditional LNG exporters to the EU, such as Russia and Norway, as well. The paper attempts to forecast the consequences for the EU and in particular for energy transition and the European Green Deal.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
L’impact du Covid-19 sur le monde maritime
Indispensable vector of globalization through which pass more than 80% of the flows of raw materials and goods, maritime transport is suffering from the effects of the pandemic due to the economic slowdown, but also to the containment measures decided by most countries.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Zaklinanie rzeczywistości: Białoruś w obliczu pandemii Covid-19
The paper presents the COVID-19 situation in Belarus. Since the outbreak of the pandemic, national authorities have been expressing scepticism towards restrictions introduced by other European countries and underestimating the severity of the problem. The lack of transparency on COVID-19 information as well as growing insecurity among the population may lead to social unrest. Additionally, a deep economic recession is expected.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Skutki pandemii w Azji Południowej
So far, South Asia has been affected by COVID-19 only in a small extent. However, huge population, poor health systems and the low level of socio-economic development increase the vulnerability of the region. India is expected to cope best with the impact of the pandemic, the author predicts, but all the countries of South Asia will need major international support. Apart from health risks, COVID-19 will result in weakening local economies and deepening poverty.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
The Swedish exceptions: early lessons from Sweden’s different approach to COVID-19
Sweden’s policy in the corona crisis has been subject to a lot of discussion in international media recently. Some point to the country portraying “the Swedish way” as a valid policy alternative to the forced lock-down of society, others criticize the Swedish government for being imprudent. Given the pace with which the virus spreads and considering the volatility of current events, it is pre-mature to draw any definite conclusions.
ELINKEINOELÄMÄN TUTKIMUSLAITOS (RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY)
The spread of coronavirus has caused distortions to global value chains. This report studies how dependent Finnish companies and industries are on raw materials, components and other intermediate goods/services that they use in their own production.
FUNDACION DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMIA APLICADA
Un escudo europeo para proteger el empleo
All countries are considering measures to mitigate the economic impact of the crisis due to COVID-19. The example to follow is Germany. This country has just announced a package of measures with no spending limit that guarantees liquidity to companies and aid to affected people. This article explains the urgency of implementing similar measures in all European countries and not only in those that can afford it for the good health of their public accounts.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Coronavirus plunges the German economy into recession
The spread of the coronavirus worldwide is exerting considerable pressure on the economy. It is difficult to predict how the pandemic will progress. Figures on the impact of the virus, obtained by comparing it with previous epidemics provide rough approximations at best. Based on the model calculations, Germany can expect to suffer huge economic losses.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Italy’s response to the health crisis: thinking today about the country’s future
This brief analyses the Italian response from the economic and financial point of view to the COVID-19 pandemic, explaining how the Italian government reacted to the crisis with important measures to support the employment and income of all those directly affected by the crisis, as well as to help businesses in difficulty. The controversial topic of the ESM is also discussed.
INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY
In the wake of Covid-19: troubled waters ahead for the European Union
The European response to the Covid-19 outbreak has been described as disjointed and insufficient. However, many of the voices now lamenting the response from Europe are the same that have voted against EU proposals to better coordinate national healthcare systems as such measures would infringe upon the sovereign right to control matters of domestic importance. Clarity and fact-based analysis are sorely needed during times of crisis because in their stead arise sentiments of fear, blame and nationalism.
FUNDACION DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMIA APLICADA
La reacción de la Unión Europea ante el COVID-19
This document analyses the actions taken so far by the EU on the coronavirus epidemic and its economic effects and reflects on the need to take additional measures to face a fundamental challenge for the European project. The EU is playing a lot in this crisis. The economies of the euro countries are so interconnected that destabilizing one of them would have unaffordable effects on the others. This requires close cooperation between all of them to mitigate the effects of the crisis, jointly share its costs and facilitate a quick recovery.
NOTRE EUROPE – INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Comment le budget de l’UE peut-il contribuer à résoudre la crise du coronavirus?
The spread of COVID-19 in Europe leads to the need to provide a coordinated European financial response in order to support the healthcare systems of the member states and avoid a major economic recession. The EU budget is the only financial instrument available to the European institutions and should be used as much as possible to combat this crisis. In March, the Commission presented several initiatives to respond to the COVID-19 epidemic, suggesting the development of an “Investment initiative in response to the coronavirus” worth 37 billion euros financed with cohesion policy funds.
NOTRE EUROPE – INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Coronavirus: un filet de sécurité européen pour accompagner la réponse budgétaire
Efforts to contain and mitigate the coronavirus rightly focus on public health. But Europe is also in an unprecedented economic situation: many of its major economies, if not all, are shutdown, and probably for a long time. In the absence of a viable instrument capable of providing a coordinated budgetary response for the euro area or the EU as a whole, the response will have to come from the member states. It is essential that it be rapid and of sufficient magnitude to dispel any doubt about the determination of European politicians.
E3G
Recovering better: a green, equitable and resilient recovery from coronavirus
As the world faces the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments are already discussing plans for post-crisis recovery. Overcoming the health crisis is now the top priority, but measures taken for economic, social and nature recovery have the potential to set the world on track for greener and more equitable development.
HERITAGE FOUNDATION
The cost of Coronavirus shutdown orders
Although decisions have been made by state, the US are effectively subject to a national lockdown. Under eight weeks lockdown, economic output could fall by as much as $2 trillion (about 9 %), the unemployment rate could reach between 16 percent and 23 percent. Policymakers should consider these costs and the public health costs of severe economic slowdowns when determining the breadth and duration of public health–motivated shutdowns and restrictions.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
The current European debate on fiscal policy: too much and too little
This paper presents the response of the EU to the COVID-crisis from a fiscal point of view. It describes the ECB’s decision to launch new longer-term refinancing operations and targeted longer-term refinancing operations programs to ensure liquidity to the banking sector and to SMEs and to temporarily strengthen its ‘quantitative easing’ policy; it continues with Commission’s decision to suspend the Stability and Growth Pact and analyses the corona bonds.
THE LISBON COUNCIL
Whatever it takes, why urgent fiscal policy action is key to Eurozone success
In light of the recent COVID-19 outbreak and its impact on economic growth, Europe is faced with a clear and present danger of economic slowdown. But is it only COVID-19 that threatens the European economy? With central banks running low on ammunition, the author calls for a Copernican revolution in European policymaking. Fiscal policy must step up and do “whatever it takes.”
NOTRE EUROPE – INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
The COVID-19 pandemic requires a strong and coordinated budgetary and monetary response from policy makers at all levels of government in Europe. Although the exact consequences of this crisis are currently very difficult to assess fully, it is of utmost importance that the EU member states and the European institutions commit to spending without limit (spending as much as necessary to resolve the crisis) and to ensuring the unconditional refinancing of this expenditure.
FUNDACION DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMIA APLICADA
La reacción de la Unión Europea ante el COVID-19
This report analyses the actions taken so far by the EU in relation to the coronavirus epidemic and its economic effects and reflects on the need to take additional measures to face a fundamental challenge for the European project. The economies of the euro countries are so interconnected that destabilizing one of them would have unaffordable effects on the others. This requires close cooperation between all of them to mitigate the effects of the crisis, jointly share its costs and facilitate a quick recovery.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Coronavirus in the EU’S Eastern neighbourhood. Why Brussels needs to scale up its support
While the magnitude of the current pandemic is still unknown, Eastern Europe might be facing a major regional catastrophe. The six countries of the EU’s Eastern Partnership have dysfunctional health-care systems and lack resources and protective equipment for their doctors and hospitals. The Commission’s offer of immediate assistance is good news. However, much more will be needed to help the EU’s eastern partners fight the coronavirus and mitigate the socioeconomic impact of this crisis.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Deterrence and defence in times of COVID-19. Europe’s political choices
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Europe is headed for a recession that will dwarf the economic downturn after the 2008 financial crisis. The impact on national defence sectors could be devastating. But as crisis and responses are still in the early stage, governments can still take measures to mitigate the effect on defence. To safeguard political and defence priorities, EU and NATO states need to act jointly and decisively.
ÖSERREICHISCHE INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Europäische Entfremdungsprozesse und ihre Dynamik in Südosteuropa in Zeiten der Corona-Krise
The fight against the virus triggered national and nationalist reflexes and revealed weaknesses in the EU’s ability to act in foreign policy. This analysis places the latest developments in the time of the corona crisis in the context of the longer-term structural development of the region and EU integration in Southeast Europe. The corona crisis poses an increased risk of further alienation between the EU and Southeast Europe, but could, in a positive scenario, lead to a revitalization of this relationship.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Covid-19 : l’Asie orientale face à la pandémie
This report provides a detailed overview of the public policy tools that China, South Korea, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan have used to fight the pandemic
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
Managing elections under the COVID-19 pandemic: the Republic of Korea’s crucial test
COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented pressure on countries and states as to whether to hold or postpone scheduled elections, amid controversies in either case. Should the fulfilment of the social contract between a government and its citizens come at the expense of endangering their health and lives? Or should concerns of exacerbating the outbreak as a result of the mass gatherings inherent to the societal ritual of voting, prevail over other considerations?
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Regular update on EUEA level to mitigate the economic and social effects of coronavirus
This document compiles information, obtained from public sources, on the measures proposed and taken at the EU or euro area level to mitigate the economic and social effects of Covid19.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Time for a corona fund. How a coalition of willing member states can shore up the EU economy
While the ECB has already taken bold steps, the EU member states need to support its efforts by committing to underwrite together some of the fiscal costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. The best option would be to launch a corona fund with the power to mobilize 1 trillion EUR; support for such a fund need not be unanimous.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG / HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Flattening the recession curve comparing initial fiscal responses to the corona crisis across the EU
While the ongoing pandemic affects all European economies, this report shows that it is likely to cause much more economic damage in some member states than in others. If anything, countries which are likely to be especially vulnerable are currently committing fewer fiscal resources to fighting the economic fallout than others. A joint European policy response to share the fiscal burden of this crisis is, therefore, urgently needed.
ÖSTERREICHISCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR EUROPAPOLITIK (AUSTRIAN SOCIETY FOR EUROPEAN POLITICS)
EU-Wirtschaftspolitik in Zeiten der Coronakrise
The corona crisis presents for Europe huge challenges, both medically and economically. In terms of economic policy, it comes in addition to a crisis in the financial markets and the global upheavals caused by the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The ECB has put together a large aid package. The Commission has temporarily suspended a large number of regulatory obstacles and has realigned some of its budget funds to strengthen small and medium-sized enterprises.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI (IAI)
International order and the European project in times of COVID19
The international liberal order, as well as the EU within it, has been in trouble for years now. The EU, for its part, has been shaken by the successive Eurozone and migration crises, while its surrounding regions were spiralling into conflict and outright collapse. COVID19 could be the final nail in the coffin of a rules-based international order and the European project within it. But it could also give birth to a new phoenix rising from its ashes.
INSTITUTO ESPANOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATEGICOS
Emergencias pandémicas en un mundo globalizado: amenazas a la seguridad
At present there are a number of factors that have triggered alarms about the increased possibility of a local outbreak becoming a global pandemic. Each new outbreak has the potential to have geopolitical consequences, altering trade and economic productivity at the national, regional and international levels. The severity of these impacts depends on the country’s connection with the rest of the world, on the mortality of the outbreak and on its form of propagation.
TERRA NOVA
Le tissu industriel français face au Covid-19: “stop and go ?” Ou “stop and die?”
The French industrial sector was weakened even before the exponential growth of the Covid-19 in Europe. Faced with chains of ‘supply more and more exposed to China, certain sectors were consequently from the beginning of March, in a situation of virtual supply shortage. The gradual disintegration of supply chains and the difficult adaptation of production units to a situation of health crisis, led the French industrial sector to a un quasi-halt.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
COVID-19: a turning point for the EU?
Herman Van Rompuy looks at the impact of COVID-19, and the quarantine measures many governments have subsequently taken to stop its spread, on our economy and societies, on the fate of multilateralism, and the fight against inequality and global warming. He finds a hopeful development in the Eurogroup compromise but argues that it is just a first step. He also warns of the ghosts of crises past.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Sharing the fiscal burden of the crisis: a pandemic solidarity instrument for the EU
The debate over how Europe should cope with the fiscal costs of the COVID-19 pandemic is in full swing. All countries have a vital interest in all other countries being able to spend as much as necessary to fight the economic fallout of the pandemic. This paper proposes a “pandemic solidarity instrument” that is tailored specifically to this crisis to deliver the burden sharing.
HERTIE SCHOOL / JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Flattening the recession curve, comparing initial fiscal responses to the corona crisis across the EU
The Covid-19 crisis will bring massive economic costs for all countries in the EU. As member states shut down large parts of their civil and business life, they have also put in train fiscal policies to fund public health measures and mitigate the economic damage of the seizure in much economic activity. This paper analyses to what extent these costs are likely to differ across member states and how governments are trying to mitigate them.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
COVID-19: lessons from the ‘euro crisis’
As the EU – and the world beyond – continues to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic, the report looks back at a previous time of intense pressure and discord in the Union, the euro crisis, to glean valuable lessons and traps to avoid. It argues that the EU cannot afford to stall the process of unconditional solidarity any further. The legitimacy of the Union is at stake.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy)
Coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak in the EU fundamental rights implications
Part of a project of the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA), this study analyses the measures taken by the Bulgarian public authorities, their impact on national or ethnic communities and on privacy and disinformation.
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Motivating social distancing during the Covid-19 pandemic: an online experiment
“Social distancing” has the potential to save millions of lives during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper describes a pre-registered experiment to test potential communication strategies to encourage compliance with social distancing. This research tested communication strategies to promote social distancing via an online experiment. The findings suggest that the thought of infecting vulnerable people or large numbers of people can motivate social distancing.
PETERSON INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
How the G20 can hasten recovery from COVID-19?
The global financial crisis of 2008–10 brought the Group of Twenty (G20) into being. Nearly 12 years later international cooperation is a recurrent need. The G20 must rise urgently to the challenge as it did in the last global crisis, but even more forcefully with more lasting commitment. This briefing sets out ten policy areas where practical near-zero cost collective actions can meaningfully speed the return of global health, physical as well as economic.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
The European Union and the coronavirus
Europeans have lost the habit of dealing with deadly epidemics. Until the 18th century, the continent had three epidemics per century. Even if, with regard to emerging infections, 90% of the bacteria and viruses identified were not known thirty years ago (Ebola, SARS, H5N1, etc.), the omnipotence of medicine reassured us. The coronavirus has shown the fragility of our societies. We will have to wait a few months to draw conclusions about this health crisis with so many forgotten precedents.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Half of humanity being confined, summoned to remain locked up and the fear of a dazzlingly contagious virus create an unprecedented situation, which already arouses many comments. It is very difficult to imagine all the consequences of this health crisis and one another’s predictions may once again be proved wrong. On the other hand, it is permissible to think about what is happening in our societies and on the international scene and about what already seems to have changed in our countries and for Europe.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
L’Europe face à la rivalité sino-américaine : le coronavirus comme catalyseur
The coronavirus pandemic acts as a dual catalyst. Visibly, it is testing the resilience of the EU and its members, torn between China from where the virus originated and the US where it is arriving. Invisibly, there is a profound redistribution of power not only between the US, China and the EU, but also between national states and major digital platforms. Who of the first or the latter are today, will be tomorrow, the main organizers of our lives? The Chinese party-state and/or Amazon? National authorities and/or individual solidarity?
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) “GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE (IW)”
Wirtschaftspolitische Antworten auf die Corona-Krise: Liquidität hat Vorrang!
The corona crisis is a global challenge. The COVID-19 spread represents both a negative demand shock and a negative supply shock from an overall economic perspective. There are noticeable export shortfalls to China and other affected economies.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW, KÖLN) “GERMAN ECONOMIC INSTITUTE (IW)”
Ein Überblick über aktuelle Konjunkturstudien zur Corona-Krise
The following article briefly lists and comments on some of the current economic studies on the corona crisis. The focus is on the one hand on the global economy and on the other hand on the German economy. The review of the studies was completed on March 23, 2020.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Emerging priorities and principles for managing the global economic impact of COVID-19
Governments and central banks in the economies most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have rapidly mobilized to keep their economies on “life support” while societies fight the most dramatic health crisis of our time. Where is the economy heading in the current situation? How effective are the policy responses being deployed? What priorities and principles should guide actions by public and private sector leaders in response to the unfolding economic crisis?
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Virus fears spread at camps for ISIS families in Syria’s north east
Disease has long been a daily concern at al-Hol, a detention camp in north-eastern Syria for families of ISIS militants, but now each death raises anxiety about COVID-19. With repatriations on hold, the UN and other international bodies must step up medical and humanitarian aid.
BRUEGEL
The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major shock to the global and European economy. The economic consequences of quarantine and lock-down measures are major, and are felt through both supply and demand-side channels. A coordinated and bold response by authorities is necessary.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
European Community bonds since the oil crisis: lessons for today?
Since the 1970s, European countries have repeatedly issued community bonds on the private capital market. The bonds were guaranteed by the member states and distributed to countries in crisis. Coronabonds, as currently discussed, would therefore be part of a long tradition of European solidarity and liability. Community bonds have proved their worth in past crises and have always been fully repaid.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
Eurobonds and European citizenship
The coronavirus pandemic will have a powerfully negative impact on the EU’s economies. The exact scale of this impact will certainly depend on how long it lasts, together with the consequent restrictions on productive activities and mobility that the various European countries are adopting. We have weeks, not months. It is crucial that a decision be made by Easter.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE/BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Legal, compliant and suitable: the ECB‘s pandemic emergency purchase programme
The ECB has announced a 750-billion-euro purchase programme to fight the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. But like all ECB programmes in recent years, the new pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) will likely be challenged in court. The PEPP is compatible with the three criteria the EU Court of Justice has established to check the legality of monetary policy measures: the PEPP falls within the ECB’s mandate; it respects the principle of proportionality; and it does not violate the prohibition of monetary financing.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚO ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚHΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚHΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚHΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
COVID-19: EΜU’s new fiscal challenge
The coronavirus pandemic is an unprecedented health crisis with tragic humanitarian consequences. Effective tackling of the pandemic, in both health and economic terms, requires an ambitious fiscal approach. Such an undertaking is a challenge, whose scale is magnified for the EMU, which experienced a deep economic crisis in recent years.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
How leaders can stop corona from undermining the EU. The health and economic crises require coordinated handling
The coronavirus pandemic, and the resulting severe economic disruptions, can only be effectively tackled with a European and global response. The degree of integration and interdependence between member states – economically, politically and socially – means that in dealing with the virus and its economic effects, the EU is only as strong as its weakest part. Hesitation and the failure to tackle the problem collectively will increase the losses – in terms of lives, economic wellbeing, political stability and EU unity.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Monitoring Covid-19 contagion growth in Europe
This study presents an econometric model which can be employed to monitor the evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases, and can dynamically show the evolution of contagion in different time periods and locations. Its presents results for nine European countries currently hit by the virus.
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
Germany and Europe are facing unforeseen economic and sociopolitical challenges because the so-called Corona Virus (SARSCoV-2) has spread from China within a very short time and causes considerable disruptions in practically all economies around the world. The effect of this external and unpredictable shock is far more serious than the banking and financial crisis twelve years ago.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The European Green Deal after Corona: implications for EU climate policy
Climate change policy cannot be the first priority of the EU for the immediate future. However, in spite of the corona-crisis the urgency of climate change mitigation has not disappeared. It will be important to ensure that recovery measures are compatible with global climate change and European Green Deal priorities so that stimulus money will flow to economic activities that have a place in a climate-neutral world.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Chronicle of a pandemic foretold
In just a few weeks, COVID-19 appeared in China and quickly spread to the rest of the world, including Europe and the US. Many have rushed to describe the outbreak as a ‘black swan’ – an unpredictable event with extremely severe consequences. This brief explores ways to pursue enhanced resilience and responsiveness, and examines their compatibility with sustainability and democratic values.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Since late 2019, the world has sought to appropriate policies for responding to the Covid-19 pandemic. This paper reviews the political significance of Covid-19 in order to understand the ways in which it challenges the existing domestic order, international health governance actors and, more fundamentally, the circulation-based modus operandi of the present world order.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
COVID-19 and conflict: seven trends to watch
Deadly and disruptive as it already is, and terribly as it could yet worsen and spread, the 2020 coronavirus outbreak could also have political effects that last long after the contagion is contained. This report identifies seven points of particular concern.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Workforce principles for the COVID-19 pandemic: stakeholder capitalism in a time of crisis
While there currently is a significant focus on the public health and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the workforce and societal implications are no less profound. The guiding principles and the four workforce management imperatives outlined in this document are a preliminary response to the unfolding crisis.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
The spread of communicable diseases such as COVID-19, and the measures to contain the virus imposed by governments and state agencies, have both constitutional and technical implications for the timing and administration of elections.
KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
Corona-Krise. Der deutsche Blick auf Asien
This publication gives insight into how the region is dealing with the Corona crisis. The experience with pandemics helps to cope. At the moment, many eyes are on Asia. This has to do with dealing with the corona crisis, but not only. Many observers had already seen Asia and especially the People’s Republic of China in the fast lane.
The publications mentioned in this post do not necessarily represent the positions, policies, or opinions of the Council of the European Union or the European Council.
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