Brussels, 3 July 2024
International think tanks have been analyzing these topics: How to harvest the windfall profits from Russian assets in Europe? How to make western sanctions against Russia working. Why reconstructing Ukraine at war can become a journey to prosperity. An how to create a bridge for Ukraine into NATO?
03.07.2024
VOX Ukraine: Violence and socio-economic outcomes of Ukrainians in Poland and Ukraine
Almost one million Ukrainian refugees remain in Poland after more than 800 days of the full-scale Russian aggression. This article explores happiness, trust and self-declared health of Ukrainian refugees in Poland and Ukrainians who stayed in Ukraine. The authors find that refugees are less well off both in terms of their general wellbeing (happiness) and also economically compared to their Ukraine-based peers.
Bruegel: How to harvest the windfall profits from Russian assets in Europe
After months of bickering over whether and how to confiscate Russian sovereign assets, G7 members agreed in June to use future profits from frozen funds held by Euroclear in Belgium to prop up a loan for Ukraine of up to €50 billion. The author claims that this approach makes sense, as a full-blown confiscation policy would be plagued with legal pitfalls. Yet, the challenge still remains of crafting a syndicated loan backed by G7 members that strikes a fair deal on burden sharing.
EGMONT – Institut royal des relations internationales: The EU Ukraine liberty bond: using the whole of the €300 billion in Russian assets in the EU now
The EU has been debating how best to use the roughly €300 billion of Russian assets that are in EU jurisdictions to fund Ukraine-related expenditure. As the author notes, in the end, only the income and proceeds earned on the assets are used, including, most recently, as collateral for a $50 billion loan. Russia retains the ownership title to the assets themselves, in accordance with the basic tenets of our constitutional and legal principles.
Observer Research Foundation: Are western sanctions against Russia working?
The author argues that, unlike Iran or North Korea, the elements of national power, population size, resource basket, and wealth are in favour of Russia, which sustains its role as a global energy exporter. This means that the 45 countries that sanctioned Russia would have to globally isolate the latter first to make sanctions work.
Atlantic Council: Reconstructing Ukraine at war: the journey to prosperity starts now
The report focuses on how to rebuild Ukraine’s economy after years of war. It provides a snapshot of the economic, societal, and energy-security situation on the ground, capturing key challenges and opportunities for supporting Ukraine’s survival and building a more prosperous future. It also explores how the country can meaningfully contribute to Europe’s economic growth and strategic autonomy at large.
Notre Europe – Institut Jacques Delors: Les citoyens européens et l’Ukraine deux ans après l’invasion russe
It has now been more than two years since Ukraine was invaded by Russia in February 2022. What is the current state of opinion in the countries of the EU? This document analyzes the situation as it presents itself in spring 2024 and its evolution since the first surveys carried out on this subject.
Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques: What is the perception of defence industrial partnerships with the EDTIB by non-EU countries? The case of Ukraine: changing the paradigm
According to the article, the transition of the Russian-Ukrainian war into a confrontation of attrition puts forward new requirements for the development of the defence industry base of Ukraine and the EU, as well as for the most effective cooperation between the Ukrainian and European defence industries. The real situation on the frontline creates new impulses and paradigms for meeting the needs of the armed forces of Ukraine, with an emphasis on high-tech weapons and military equipment that provide an “asymmetric” advantage over the enemy.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy): Phasing out Russian gas in Europe
More than two years after the Russian invasion in Ukraine, the decoupling from the Russian energy dependence remains elusive. Russia can still legally sell natural gas around the world. This policy brief provides a comprehensive overview of Russia’s continued presence on the European gas market and proposes a complete phaseout of Russian gas from 2025.
Fondation Robert-Schuman: L’agriculture de l’Europe et l’agriculture d’Ukraine sont complémentaires
This note outlines the issues and solutions to be analyzed together for action and therefore to set a new and determined course for a Common Agricultural Policy. Of all economic and social activities in Ukraine, agriculture has long been the richest, most diversified and most innovative. Since Russia’s aggression launched in 2014 against Ukraine with the annexation of Crimea, it has also become the most essential for the country and the one which raises the most questions in its relations with the EU.
Foreign Policy Research Institute: Turning point or dead end? Challenging the Kremlin’s narrative of stability in wartime
According to the publication, the Russian government expects 2024 to be a turning point in the country’s war against Ukraine. The Kremlin is using means of reflexive control, i.e. it projects an image of a country that has weathered Western sanctions, ramped up its performance, and has a united society behind its leader and his goals. This strategy was confirmed by personnel changes executed after Vladimir Putin’s inauguration for a fifth presidential term.
ECFR – European Council on Foreign Relations: Late-stage Putinism: the war in Ukraine and Russia’s shifting ideology
The author argues that the Kremlin, partly as a result of the invasion of Ukraine, is building a more unified ideology that it is disseminating among the population and that it is having an increasing impact on foreign policy. He suggests possible actions by the West to counterbalance this ideology and limit its impact.
RAND Europe: A bridge for Ukraine into NATO
This commentary points out that the Biden administration sometimes refers to the need to build a “bridge” to NATO membership for Ukraine. It also emphasises that if NATO is serious about bringing Ukraine in as a member, then it must be clear-eyed about the risks. It must develop a concrete plan in support of a broader strategy, and most importantly, it must commit itself to success.
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