Brussels, 26 June 2024
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies/ Clingendael Institute
Freedom isn’t free: a cost-benefit analysis of support for Ukraine
This policy memo analyses the impact of European and American decisions regarding support for Ukraine and outlines three possible outcomes. It is important for European countries to realize that despite the recently passed aid package of sixty billion dollars, future US military support for Ukraine cannot be taken for granted.
Carnegie Europe
Judy asks: are Europeans prepared to send troops to Ukraine?
Several experts comment on the question of whether Europeans are prepared to send troops to Ukraine. Deploying troops to Ukraine, even for non-combat duties, entails risks most European countries are currently unwilling to take. The advice is that the priority right now should be ramping up aid to Kyiv.
Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Victory in Ukraine starts with addressing five strategic problems
The most recent U.S. national security supplemental package to Ukraine, passed in April 2024, mandates the administration under President Joe Biden to produce a strategy for continued U.S. support of Ukraine against Russian aggression. The strategy must “help Ukraine end the conflict as a democratic, independent, and sovereign country capable of deterring and defending its territory.” This white paper is intended to support the development of such a strategy by defining five key strategic problems: (1) integrating Ukraine into the European economic and transatlantic security order, (2) degrading Russia’s continued ability to bypass sanctions and access capital, (3) combating the resilience of Russian disinformation campaigns, (4) rethinking the arsenal of democracy, and (5) sustaining and strengthening Ukraine’s economy and democracy.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Arms supplies to Ukraine: does the European arms export control system need revision?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put arms control and arms export controls at the heart of the political discussion. Since February 2022, European Union member states have changed their approach to the support provided to Ukraine. From an initially cautious stance, they have moved towards the transfer of both light and heavy weapons and equipment through bilateral agreements or within the framework of the European Peace Facility. This paper analyses these trends and examines the performance of the current regime on arms exports, particularly in the case of jointly produced armaments and competing national approaches.
International Crisis Group
This report seeks to draw the key lessons from the setbacks that Ukraine and its partners faced in 2023, suggesting how these can be applied to hold the line now in Russia’s advance so as to make meaningful diplomacy possible. It is based on dozens of interviews with Ukrainian, Russian, European and U.S. officials, civil society figures, aid agency employees and defence experts over the past year, as well as government documents, news articles and research by the Crisis Group.
Rahvusvaheline Kaitseuuringute Keskus (International Centre for Defence and Security)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: war and society
The author writes that the consequent changes in trust in the political and military leadership have significantly complicated cooperation between those in Ukrainian society who are included in the war’s infrastructure and those who mainly focus on their own lives. He concludes that overcoming cleavages in society is essential in building the resilience necessary to resist an aggressor and that the consolidation of power as a response to the challenge of external aggression is to be expected, but it is not the optimal management solution.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
This paper takes as its starting point the historical, cultural, geographical, ethnic, and religious similarities between the former Yugoslavia and today’s Ukraine. It also examines the ways in which the Yugoslav conflict was resolved and the attempts to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. It is intended that some ideas for resolving the Ukrainian conflict may emerge from such analysis.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
NATO to consider increasing, stabilising support for Ukraine
Ahead of the July NATO summit in Washington, the paper examines NATO’s role in coordinating support for Ukraine. New instruments such as a dedicated NATO fund and the Alliance’s “mission” for Ukraine could facilitate the provision of assistance in the coming years.
Centre for Eastern Studies
Budanov’s sanctions. The consequences of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries
The article examines the scale of destruction caused by Ukrainian drone strikes on refinery facilities inside Russia. While the attacks have no impact on oil prices globally, their continuation could destabilize the Russian domestic market.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The article examines the productivity of the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) on June 11–12. Discussions at a pre-URC conference suggest that a recent and sudden high-level personnel move in Kyiv risks becoming a distraction and a source of uncertainty that will dominate the URC. The Ukrainian government should save the top annual international conference dedicated to Ukraine from this misfortune by immediately appointing a permanent minister of restoration and by publicly committing to transparency both at home and with international donors.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Make the URC a Ukraine Resilience Conference
This article explains how Russia has adapted its strategy for the war in Ukraine. Airstrikes against power generation facilities aim to make Ukrainian cities unlivable. Russia is currently laying waste to Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, by launching attacks from an effectively US-granted safe harbor on the Russian side of the border. And disinformation in the West has become the Russian strategy that matters most to the outcome of the war.
Ulkopoliittinen instituutti (Finnish Institute of International Affairs)
Russia’s presidential election: signaling repression and demobilizing opposition
Although a notable proportion of the Russian population regards the election and Putin’s leadership as legitimate, their support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine is waning. Only a slim majority backs the continuation of the conflict. According to the author, the post-election period is likely to see the persistence of Russia’s current domestic and foreign policies, with the potential for increased societal and economic tensions.
European Policy Centre
No more excuses: debunking arguments against seizing Russian state assets for Ukraine
This paper analyses the arguments around seizing Russian state assets for Ukraine. Indeed, the authors highlight that the immediate rebuilding of critical infrastructure is crucial to keeping Ukraine’s economy running and for its defence, as the country will not be able to rebuild if it no longer exists. Moreover, failure to seize the reserves could encourage further crimes of aggression and undermine the geopolitical order.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
The report written by 11 leading international lawyers sets out the legal case for seizing Russian central-bank assets and transferring them to Ukraine under the established doctrine of state countermeasure, which permits states lawfully to carry out actions against a state that has violated fundamental rules of international law.
Brookings Institution
Why do the US and its allies want to seize Russian reserves to aid Ukraine?
After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s foreign exchange reserves held by the U.S. and its allies were frozen. Since then, some officials and commentators have suggested seizing those assets, which amount to nearly $300 billion, and using the proceeds to defend and rebuild Ukraine. This policy is not without risk or controversy. Seizing foreign exchange reserves has little economic or legal precedent and uncertain long-run effects. This article explains the efforts to seize Russia’s reserves and the possible consequences for the global financial system.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
In February 2022, Western governments immobilized an estimated US$300 billion of Russian central-bank assets in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The United Nations, G7, European Union and other bodies have since called for Russia to compensate Ukraine and other parties for injury caused by its invasion. This paper considers that any criticism against seizing Russian assets should be substantiated as merely stating that such measures are against international law is not sufficient. States, their legal advisers and legal scholars must take part in the legal analysis, for policymakers to receive the best advice.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russia has the resources for a long war in Ukraine
The article looks at the state of the Russian economy in the context of the country’s ability to sustain the war in Ukraine. It presents Russian economic goals, remaining resources and state spending against the background of wartime challenges.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
The power of partnership: international supporters of Ukraine’s local reconstruction
With destruction occurring on a daily basis, the paper points out that repairing, rebuilding, and smaller-scale reconstruction within communities and regions is of paramount importance to the local population and the country as a whole. Given the extent of the destruction caused by the full-scale war, the national budget channels most of its funds – including, since 2024, a portion of local revenues – to military needs. Against this backdrop, war-ravaged municipalities and communities receive much-needed financial support from international partners: financial institutions, governments, foundations, regional entities, and “twin” cities.
Vox Ukraine
Ukraine’s plans for institutional reforms
Ukraine’s support by international organizations is usually structured as “money in exchange for reforms”. This article looks at which reforms has Ukraine promised to implement in the coming years with a view to making the Ukrainian economy more competitive and resilient, and gradually aligning Ukraine’s legislation with the EU laws.
Atlantic Council
Reconstructing Ukraine at war: the journey to prosperity starts now
This report provides a snapshot of the economic, societal, and energy-security situation on the ground, capturing key challenges and opportunities for supporting Ukraine’s survival and building a more prosperous future. It also explores how the country can meaningfully contribute to Europe’s economic growth and strategic autonomy at large through innovation, energy security, decarbonization, and diversified supply chains. While the situation is changing daily, these key takeaways will remain pertinent to reconstruction discussions for the foreseeable future.
Istituto Affari Internazionali
How targeted measures are changing the global economy: three scenarios for the future
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has prompted Western nations and their allies to impose extensive sanctions. This is yet a further example of how economic interdependence has been utilised as a weapon to address security challenges. This frequent, and often aggressive, utilisation of sanctions can decisively affect the functioning of globalisation. The article discusses the three most likely scenarios.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
Navigating market exits: companies’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine
This policy brief shows what kind of companies decided to leave the Russian market. It also focuses on prominent Swedish businesses which announced a withdrawal from Russia, but whose products were later found available in the country by investigative journalists.
Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (German Institute for Economic Research)
Sanctions against Russian gas would not endanger EU or German gas supply
As a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine, natural gas prices skyrocketed in 2022 and Germany in particular felt the impact of its strong dependency on Russia. Prices have since relaxed, the European natural gas industry has overcome the uncertainty due to the energy crisis in 2022, and the industry also survived the slump in Russian natural gas imports without supply interruptions. This report concludes that increased efforts to save energy and a timely phase-out of natural gas would reduce dependency on gas imports. Consequently, both the German and European natural gas supplies would be secure in the long term without Russian imports.
Rytų Europos studijų centras (Eastern Europe Studies Centre)
Lessons of war: Ukraine’s energy infrastructure damage, resilience and future opportunities
Since 2022, the military actions in Ukraine have caused losses to the country’s energy infrastructure running into millions; its restoration requires more than USD 47 billion. This paper advises other countries to rely on Ukraine’s lessons in safeguarding their infrastructure – ensuring adequate reserves of critical repair components, passive defense measures for equipment in case of war, proper training of specialists, and potentially further expanding the electricity grid to ensure its reliability in case of losing some infrastructure.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (Friedrich Ebert Foundation)
Industrial policy for Ukraine’s survival: reversing 30 years of deindustrialization
This paper considers that the Ukrainian state must play an active role in addressing war-induced market failures and the cumulative impact of 30 years of deindustrialization. It points to possible measures by the Western partners and by Ukraine, including the suggestion that Ukraine and the European Union should co-invest in decarbonization of metallurgy and other key industries to ensure that Ukrainian manufacturing is not marginalized by the European Green Deal.
Institut français des relations internationales
Gouvernance mondiale, Ukraine, Union européenne : Quo vadis ?
This paper refers to the shattering of Western illusions of happy globalisation and fragmentation of the international system. According to the author, this fragmentation makes it problematic to develop global governance, which should, above all, be concerned with security challenges. The war in Ukraine threatens to send the European Union into a dangerous tailspin, symbolised by the temptation of further enlargements.
Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives
Accession negotiations: political impact on EU assistance to Ukraine
This report speaks about Ukraine-EU relations which have entered a new phase after the strategic decision to open negotiations with Ukraine, made at the EU leaders summit in December 2023. Though having some political steps to be completed before the practical phase of accession talks, this new phase is characterized by the crucial shift in the EU’s approach towards its relations with Ukraine. Aid packages for Ukraine as well as plans for reconstruction are now supposed to be adjusted to considering Ukraine as a future EU member state.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
The EU should issue common European defence bonds for Ukraine now
The author argues that the EU countries should urgently approve the common defense spending, given the uncertainty of sustaining aid from the US and the need to secure a militarily victorious Ukraine. The European defense bonds should be issued without delay and fund direct military support for Ukraine.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs)
The Russian war of aggression has led to a deeper relationship between the EU and Ukraine. This is clear from Ukraine receiving status as EU candidate and implementing reforms in many areas. However, the strong power concentration of the presidency poses an obstacle to the separation of power and hinders effective reform of the legal sector. The author proposes that one of the main elements of reconstruction in Ukraine will be to ensure the meaningful involvement of local actors. Municipal structures should be strengthened, for example by continuing the decentralisation process, which has been very successful to date but has not yet been completed.
Centre for Eastern Studies
On the warpath: the development and modernization of the Baltic states’ armed forces
The commentary examines the impact of the Russian full-scale invasion on the defence policies of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. It describes the increase of their military spending, the development and technical modernization of the armed forces as well as the presence of allied forces on their territories.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik (German Council on Foreign Relations)
Germany and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine: the third year
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 came as a real shock to German elites and society alike. Although Russia has been behaving aggressively toward its neighbours since the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea—part of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory—in 2014, it was only with this most recent military attack that the German leadership came to understand Russia’s behaviour as a threat to German and European security.
Slovenská spoločnosť pre zahraničnú politiku (Slovak Foreign Policy Association)
Slovak-Ukrainian Information Center
The aim of this analytical output is to prepare a plan for the establishment of the Slovak-Ukrainian Cross-Border Center (SKUAC), which will offer public benefit services to regional and local public territorial administration authorities, business entities, and non-governmental organizations in the Slovak-Ukrainian border area in the fields of education, research, and professional project support in the area of territorial development and cross-border cooperation.
Carnegie Europe
As the brief argues, Putin’s war on Ukraine marks the end of the near abroad—the idea that Russia enjoys a special status in much of the post-Soviet space. But while Russia’s neighbours are seeking greater independence, they are not necessarily turning West.
Център за изследване на демокрацията (Center for the Study of Democracy) – Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
Kremlin pitstop: financing Putin’s war
This analysis shows how Russia has exploited a complex web of economic influence globally to circumvent sanctions and maintain its position in international markets. Turkey has become one of the key enablers of this Kremlin playbook.
RAND Europe
In April 2024, Ukraine and its supporters around the world breathed a sigh of relief when U.S. President Joe Biden signed a long-awaited foreign aid bill that provides more than $60 billion in aid to Ukraine. For the Biden administration, though, accepting such risk will mean abandoning a pillar of its strategy for the past two years, choosing a single path, and accepting the potentially escalatory consequences that might follow. The author considers that it’s a tough choice, but not choosing, however, may be even riskier.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Inevitable fractures: the Ukraine war and the global system
The paper explores the divisions in the global system which have been highlighted by the war in Ukraine. The fractions, visible for example in the United Nations General Assembly, are an inevitable consequence of colliding ideas and interests in international politics, and Russian invasion has strikingly confirmed them.
Source – EU Council