RUSSIA

Part VII: Experts describe actors shaping the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2023. One of the analyses contains several experts’ comments on issues such as the life-or-death question of continued outside aid for Ukraine and the resilience of the Ukrainian people; cohesion in the Russian military and the potential for catastrophic collapse; the looming nuclear question; and how a conflict might end.

As the conflict has entered its second year, an explainer analyses what has defined the first year and then expands on what the EU needs to concretely do in the second if Ukraine is to have any hope of triumphing over the invaders. This will require vision, courage and boldness from European leaders. The alternative if they fail? A rules-based international order replaced by a ruthless multipolar world defined by

Part IV: What are the consequences of the international arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin issued by the International Criminal Court in March, assessing the chances of its implementation and analyzing the importance of the role of the court itself. How has the Kremlin’s relationship with the Wagner group been evolving, since 2014 until its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, started pursuing his own stratagems.

Part III: The risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation due to actions in the conventional domain is a serious, and underrated, feature of the current stand-off between NATO and Russia, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The authors suggest a series of measures to avoid inadvertent escalation while stressing that caution should be taken with NATO’s nuclear and conventional posture, including the placement of conventional missiles within range of threatening Russia’s