Brussels, 18 October 2024
ENTSOG has today published its Winter Supply Outlook 2024/25 and Winter Supply Review 2023/24 reports, as required by Article 26(3)(g) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1789. The Winter Supply Outlook also includes a Union-wide simulation of prolonged Russian gas supply disruption scenarios.
Like the previous edition, the report comprises a Union-wide simulation of gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios, including a wide variety of sensitivities not only for this winter assessment (1 October 2024 to 31 March 2025) but also for the longer-term preparedness. In response to stakeholders’ requests, this edition additionally includes an analysis for Summer 2025 (1 April 2025 to 30 September 2025).
ENTSOG has assessed the capability of the European gas system to cope with normal or cold winter conditions, and high demand situations. The analysis considers Russian import limitations via the Ukraine supply route (end of the transit after December 2024), and Turkstream in the reference case and investigates the impact of a total Russian supply disruption considering additional demand in Moldova in that case.
Main findings:
- The very high EU storage level (94% or 1,083 TWh on 1 October 2024) is comparable to the level at the same time last year. This is due to the high storage filling level (59%) at the beginning of the injection period, lower gas consumption over the years and dedicated measures introduced by the Member States.
- Significant storage withdrawal early in the winter season will result in low storage levels at the end of the season, which would decrease flexibility and increase risk of demand curtailment in case of cold weather. The assessment shows that some European countries are reserving part of their own gas stock as strategic reserves.
- To achieve the 90% UGS stock level target by the end of summer 2025, it is necessary to retain gas at the beginning of the injection season (between 30% and 40%) depending on the availability of LNG.
- Europe could still reach 40% UGS stock level at the end of the winter season for the Reference Winter case even without Russian pipeline gas, demonstrating the independence of the EU gas system from Russian pipeline supply.
- Additional storage flexibility could be secured by storing additional volumes in Ukrainian storage facilities, if this gas could be injected and then withdrawn during the winter season, and if market participants would be willing to use it. Potential transit of gas through Ukraine between Member States could improve interconnectivity between CEE and SEE regions.
- In case of full disruption of Russian pipeline supplies during a cold winter combined with much lower LNG supply, simulation results showed that the introduction of possible measures, such as additional supplies, and a 15% decrease in gas demand, would avoid demand curtailment risks and allow for reaching adequate storage level.
- LNG supply and supply from Norway represents the largest sources of supply for the EU Member States and the Energy Communities’ Contracting parties.
Piotr Kuś, ENTSOG General Director, commented,
“It is positive to again see the much higher than usual storage levels at this time of year and the current stable supply situation is the effect of the continued efforts of the Member States. The assessment reiterates the need to inject gas during the summer season and the consideration of options for storage flexibility to ensure the EU is adequately winter-prepared.’’
To complement the Supply Outlook report, ENTSOG also carried out a review of the previous winter to increase knowledge of seasonal dynamics of supply and demand. The Winter Supply Outlook 2024/25 (with Summer 2025 Overview) and the Winter Supply Review 2023/24 reports are available on the ENTSOG website, here.
ENTSOG welcomes feedback on the published reports, for improving next reports and adjusting for future needs of the market. ENTSOG will monitor the evolution of the storage levels throughout the winter and report on the situation on a regular basis.
Source – ENTSOG (PDF)