EP Think Tank: Outlook for the European Council meeting on 17-18 October 2024

Written by Ralf Drachenberg and Rebecca Torpey

The provisional agenda for the 17-18 October European Council meeting has three main topics. First, EU Heads of State or Government will address Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and the EU’s support to Ukraine and its people. Second, they will consider the situation in the Middle East, amid concerns over regional escalation following Israel’s targeting of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran’s missile strikes on Israel.Third, EU leaders will discuss competitiveness, with a first exchange on the report by Mario Draghi on ‘The future of European competitiveness’; they will also be called on to endorse the integrated country-specific recommendations, and thus conclude the 2024 European Semester cycle.

In addition, EU leaders could hold a strategic debate on migration, and review progress on security and defence initiatives. Discussions could also touch upon developments in Georgia and Moldova, preparations for the COP29 on climate change and the COP16 on biological diversity, as well as the impact of the recent heavy flooding in central Europe.

General

While the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, will attend the informal meeting of EU Heads of State or Government on 8 November in Budapest, the 17-18 October European Council meeting will be the last regular one of his mandate. On 1 December, António Costa will take over as President of the European Council.

At the start of the last institutional cycle, in October 2019, the European Council held a discussion – in the presence of the European Commission President-elect, Ursula von der Leyen, on how the other EU institutions were to follow up and implement the Strategic Agenda 2019-2024. This time around, the outgoing and new European Commission President has already presented her views on the future of the European Union, during the informal European Council meeting on 17 June 2024.

Ukraine

Ukraine has been a topic at almost every European Council meeting since Russia’s invasion on 24 February 2022, signifying its salience for EU leaders.In October, in light of the destruction of Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure (the country is left with only around one third of its pre-war energy-generation capacity), the European Council will discuss ways of preparing Ukraine for the upcoming winter.Moreover, following on from the June European Council meeting, EU leaders are likely to revert to the issue of loaning money to Ukraine (for its current and future military, budget and reconstruction needs); the loans would be repaid using the profits from frozen Russian assets. Finally, after the G7 foreign ministers’ recent condemnation of Iran’s support for Russia’s war through continually supplying weaponry to Russia (such as ballistic missiles and drones), EU leaders may call for sanctions against third countries that support Russia’s ability to wage war.

The conflict in the Middle East has been a regular point on the European Council agenda since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. Unlike Ukraine, this has been a more divisive topic, with EU leaders sometimes unable to agree on conclusions, such as in February 2024.

Hamas attack

EU leaders have:

• repeatedly condemned the Hamas attack on 7 October and reiterated Israel’s right to self-defence in line with international law;
• continued to call for the unconditional release of hostages;
• called for the adoption of restrictive measures against Hamas;
• supported independent investigations into sexual violence during the attacks.

Ceasefire

EU leaders have:

• called multiple times for a humanitarian pause leading to a sustained ceasefire – initially a very sensitive topic.

Humanitarian assistance in Gaza

EU leaders have:

• called on the Israeli government not to undertake ground operations in Rafah, which would worsen the ‘already catastrophic humanitarian situation’;
• repeated calls for aid to reach Gaza rapidly.

Extremist settler violence

EU leaders have:

• condemned the Israeli government’s decisions to expand illegal settlements;
• called for restrictive measures against the perpetrators of extremist settler violence.

Accountability

EU leaders have:

• stressed the importance of adhering to the order of the ICJ and insisted that violations of international humanitarian law needed to be investigated and accountability ensured.

Two-state solution

EU leaders have:

• repeatedly stated the EU’s commitment to peace based on the two-state solution.

Broader region

EU leaders have:

• called for the full cessation of hostility between Hezbollah and Israel;
• committed to strengthening EU support for the Lebanese armed forces, as well as to providing additional aid for the most vulnerable in Lebanon.

Following Iran’s missile attack against Israel on 1 October, EU leaders are likely to condemn the attack and call for de-escalation to avoid a broader regional conflagration. EU leaders may also discuss the related conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. On 26 September, 11 countries and the EU called for ‘an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border’ but EU foreign ministers were unable to agree unanimously on common wording on the escalation.

Competitiveness

The October European Council meeting sees one of main themes of the Strategic Agenda 2024-2029, ‘a prosperous and competitive Europe’, return to the agenda. EU leaders will discuss ways of strengthening EU competitiveness amid worries that the EU is lagging behind the US and China. They could also possibly review progress on the new European competitiveness deal.

Two reports have recently fed into the EU competitiveness debate: i) the paper by former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, ‘Much more than a market‘, published in April following a European Council request, and ii) a report by former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi entitled ‘The future of European competitiveness – A competitiveness strategy for Europe‘, requested by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her 2023 State of the Union speech. The much-anticipated Draghi report, expected in the spring, was finally published in September; this is the first chance for EU leaders to comment on the findings. According to von der Leyen, some of the report’s recommendations have already been considered when drafting her 2024-2029 political guidelines.

EU Member States seem to agree with many points included in the Draghi report, such as making energy more affordable and focusing on strategic sectors. The need stressed by Draghi for €800 billion in investment to keep up with the US and China has, however, met some criticism, with German Finance Minister Christian Lindnerstatingthat his country would not agree to additional joint borrowing. Moreover, 20 Member States have published a ‘non-paper’ setting priorities for the future single market strategy, a topic seemingly sidelined in the Letta and Draghi reports.

The competitiveness of Europe’s car industry has recently dominated the debate. Germany and Italy have been leading the calls for a relaxation of EU rules on CO₂targets and on the 2035 petrol and diesel car ban, claiming that the car industry could otherwise be seriously harmed, causing heavy job losses. This situation results inter alia from lower than predicted sales of electric cars in Europe, and underperformance by European carmakers in this segment compared to their Chinese counterparts.

Furthermore, the digital transition, a key element for EU competitiveness, is facing difficulties. The Commission’s progress report indicates that the EU is missing its 2030 digital, advanced technologies and connectivity targets; corrective measures and investment are urgently needed. EU leaders will discuss competitiveness again at their informal meeting in Budapest on 8 November.

The European Council’s likely endorsement of the integrated country-specific recommendations – postponed in June to a later date– will conclude the 2024 European Semester.

Migration

Migration, not originally envisaged to be on the agenda, is likely to be added amid concerns over the increasing number of irregular migrants in the EU, as well as developments in Germany following the deadly stabbings by a Syrian refugee in Solingen. Germany justified the temporary reintroduction of border controls by citing ‘security risks related to irregular migration’, thus angering its neighbours. Several other Member States (Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, Slovenia and Sweden) have also reintroduced temporary controls at the internal Schengen borders, with similar justifications. The recent election wins by far-right parties in Germany and Austria increase the salience of the topic.

EU leaders will hold a strategic discussion on migration, possibly adopting conclusions on the more consensual aspects. Migration has been a divisive topic in the European Council since the 2015 migration crisis, causing an ‘avoidance’ of the topic at EU leaders’ level for several years or an incapacity to agree on joint conclusions. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, currently holding the rotating Council presidency, is publicly showing his disagreement with the EU’s migration policy.

A core point of focus in the debate concerns the return of irregular migrants to their country of origin. Even if the return rate has increased in 2024, there is a significant gap between those being ordered to leave the EU and those who effectively return, whether their return is voluntary or enforced (see Figure below).

Security and defence

Security and defence has been on the agenda of many European Council meetings since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In recent months, the focus has been on increasing the EU’s overall defence readiness, including by: i) expanding production capacity; ii) developing the EU’s defence technology and industrial base; iii) mobilising funds for defence initiatives; iv) addressing capability gaps; and v) enhancing defence investment. EU leaders are likely to discuss the state of play of initiatives such as the European defence industry programme. The more prominent place of security and defence in the Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 indicates that the topic is likely to stay high on the agenda in the medium term.

Other items

Georgia and Moldova: EU leaders will reiterate their continued support for Moldova and Georgia, and discuss some of the numerous challenges these countries face due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.

COP 29 – Baku, Azerbaijan: The European Council usually agrees brief conclusions ahead of a COP meeting. In that context, it may discuss the EU’s response to climate change, as some Member States have recently experienced extreme weather events, such as flooding.

Read the complete briefing on ‘Outlook for the European Council meeting on 17-18 October 2024‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

Source – EU Parliament Research Service (EPRS)