Policy guidance: EU Commission publishes its European Semester spring package

Brussels, 19 June 2024

The Commission is today providing policy guidance to Member States under the 2024 European Semester Spring Package to build a robust and future-proof economy that secures competitiveness, resilience and long-term prosperity for all, while maintaining sound public finances, in the face of a challenging geopolitical environment.

The EU is determined to take further steps to enhance its long-term competitiveness, prosperity and leadership on the global stage and to strengthen its open strategic autonomy. While the EU and its Member States have strong assets to build on, the EU will continue to address structural challenges that hamper its competitiveness, ensuring higher productivity growth and stronger investment and addressing labour and skills shortages.

This requires an integrated approach across all policy areas: macroeconomic stability, promoting environmental sustainability, productivity and fairness. The European Semester provides this policy coordination, including the implementation of NextGenerationEU, with the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) at its core, and Cohesion Policy programmes. The European Semester cycle also provides updated reporting on progress towards the delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals and identifies investment priorities for the upcoming mid-term review of Cohesion Policy.

Resilience in the face of challenges

The European Semester has played a crucial role in supporting strong and coordinated economic policy responses over the past five years, as the EU was confronted by a series of extraordinary challenges. The EU has demonstrated a high degree of economic and social resilience in the face of major shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the related energy price surges and inflation hikes. Looking ahead, the Spring 2024 Economic Forecast projects GDP growth in 2024 at 1.0% in the EU and 0.8% in the euro area, on the back of a strong labour market and dynamic private consumption. In 2025, growth is forecast to accelerate further to 1.6% in the EU and to 1.4% in the euro area. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to fall from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.2% in 2025.

Targeted recommendations to Member States

The 2024 country reports analyse economic, employment and social developments in each Member State and take stock of the implementation of recovery and resilience plans (RRPs) and Cohesion Policy programmes. The reports also identify key challenges, with a particular focus on competitiveness, and priority reforms and investments. Based on this analysis, the Commission proposes country-specific recommendations (CSRs) to provide guidance to Member States on how to tackle those key challenges that are only partially or not addressed in Member States’ RRPs.

The country-specific recommendations are divided into:

A recommendation on fiscal policy, including fiscal-structural reforms, where relevant;

A recommendation to continue or accelerate implementation of the national recovery and resilience plans and Cohesion Policy programmes; and
Where relevant, further recommendations on outstanding and/or newly emerging structural challenges, with a focus on improving competitiveness.

Effective delivery of NextGenerationEU and Cohesion Policy: crucial drivers of a competitive EU economy

As illustrated in this year’s country reports, NextGenerationEU and other EU funding programmes have supported the EU’s recovery towards a greener, more digital, fairer and more resilient future through job creation, improved competitiveness, macroeconomic stability and territorial and social cohesion.

To date, the Commission has disbursed over €240 billion to Member States in RRF grants and loans for the successful implementation of key reforms and investments. Also, over €252 billion has been disbursed under the Cohesion Policy funds since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most Member States continue to make good progress in the delivery of their RRPs and Cohesion Policy programmes. However, some Member States need to urgently address emerging delays and structural challenges, to ensure the timely implementation of investments and reforms included in their RRP. This Semester cycle also provides guidance to Member States in view of the forthcoming mid-term review of Cohesion Policy programmes.

Policy guidance to enhance competitiveness

The Spring Package calls on Member States to take policy action to promote competitiveness and increase productivity. To this end, Member States are invited in the CSRs to:

Ensure a business environment supportive to competitiveness, taking full advantage of the opportunities generated by the single market, especially for SMEs;
Improve educational outcomes and support skills development, with high-quality education and training based on modernised curricula, since addressing labour and skills shortages is essential to ensure the EU’s prosperity;
Facilitate access to finance by improving savings allocation and capital financing and facilitating capital market and alternative forms of financing, especially for SMEs. Implement ambitious reforms to build integrated research and innovation ecosystems, focusing on science-business collaboration and knowledge transfers for example; and
Accelerate the green and digital transition, increasing the autonomy, resilience and competitiveness of the EU’s net-zero industry, addressing labour and skills shortages, boosting public investment in digital infrastructure and skills, and tackling regulatory barriers to digitalisation.

Strengthening fiscal sustainability

The COVID-19 pandemic, the surge in energy prices, and the required policy response have contributed to a substantial increase in public debt in several Member States in recent years. Fiscal policies should put debt on a downward path or to keep it at prudent levels, while preserving investment.

The new economic governance framework makes 2024 a year of transition for fiscal policy coordination in the EU. The fiscal policy guidance and decisions under the new framework contained in the Spring Package aim to strengthen Member States’ debt sustainability and promote sustainable and inclusive growth in all Member States.

Under the new rules, Member States will prepare medium-term plans setting out their expenditure paths and their priority reforms and investments. The recommendations included in the Spring Package provide a strong underpinning for the reform and investment commitments Member States must set out in these plans.

The CSRs provide that Member States should pursue prudent fiscal policies by ensuring that the growth in net expenditure in 2025 and beyond is consistent with the fiscal adjustment requirements under the new governance framework.

Concretely, this means that Member States with public debt above 60% of GDP or a deficit above 3% of GDP should ensure that the growth in net expenditure is limited to a rate that puts the government debt-to-GDP ratio on a plausible downward path over the medium term, while bringing the general government deficit to below 3% of GDP and maintaining it below this reference value over the medium term.

Fiscal surveillance

The Commission prepared a Report under Article 126(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the EU (TFEU) for 12 Member States to assess their compliance with the deficit criterion of the Treaty: Belgium, Czechia, Estonia, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland. In this assessment, the Commission takes into account relevant factors brought forward by Member States in case their public debt-to-GDP ratio is below 60% of GDP or their deficit is assessed as being ‘close’ to the 3% reference value and ‘temporary’.

In light of the assessment contained in the report, the opening of a deficit-based excessive deficit procedure is warranted for seven Member States: Belgium, France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland and Slovakia.

The Report under Article 126(3) is only the first step into opening the excessive deficit procedures. In light of this assessment, and after considering the opinion of the Economic and Financial Committee, the Commission intends to propose to the Council to open deficit-based excessive deficit procedures for these Member States in July 2024. As part of the Autumn European Semester Package, to ensure consistency with the adjustment path set out in the medium-term plans, the Commission will propose to the Council recommendations to put an end to the excessive deficit situation.

In 2020, the Council decided that an excessive deficit existed in Romania, based on 2019 data. According to the Commission’s assessment, Romania has not taken effective action to correct this and put an end to its excessive deficit situation.

Assessing macroeconomic imbalances

The Commission has assessed the existence of macroeconomic imbalances for the 12 Member States selected for in-depth reviews in the 2024 Alert Mechanism Report. Overall, after the big terms-of-trade shock of 2022, macroeconomic imbalances tended to ease in most Member States.

France, Spain, and Portugal are no longer experiencing imbalances as vulnerabilities have overall declined. Fiscal sustainability risks will be surveyed under the reformed fiscal rules.
Greece and Italy are now found to be experiencing imbalances after experiencing excessive imbalances until last year as vulnerabilities have declined but remain a concern. Fiscal sustainability risks will be surveyed under the reformed fiscal rules.
Slovakia is now found to be experiencing imbalances. The vulnerabilities related to cost competitiveness, external balance, housing market and household debt have lingered, and policy action has not been forthcoming.
Romania is now found to be experiencing excessive imbalances after experiencing imbalances until last year as vulnerabilities related to external accounts, mainly linked to large and increasing government deficits, remain, while significant price and cost pressures have increased and policy action has been weak.
Germany, Cyprus, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Sweden continue to experience imbalances.

Post-programme surveillance reports

Post-programme surveillance assesses the economic, fiscal and financial situation of Member States that have benefited from financial assistance programmes, focusing on their repayment capacity. The post-programme surveillance reports for Ireland, Greece, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal conclude that all five Member States retain the capacity to repay their debt.

Assessing social convergence challenges

In this Semester cycle, the Commission has carried out for the first time a two-stage analysis of employment, skills and social challenges in each Member State, based on the revised Social Scoreboard and the principles of a Social Convergence Framework. The first-stage analysis is included in the Joint Employment Report (JER) 2024, while a more detailed second-stage analysis was published by the Commission services in May 2024 for seven Member States (Bulgaria, Estonia, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary and Romania).

Employment guidelines

The Commission is proposing guidelines for Member States’ employment policies in 2024. These guidelines set common priorities for national employment and social policies to make them fairer and more inclusive.

The 2023 guidelines are updated to cover actions to tackle skills and labour shortages and improve basic and digital skills. New technologies, artificial intelligence and algorithmic management and their impact on the world of work are also included. In addition, the guidelines refer to recent policy initiatives, in areas of particular relevance such as platform work, the social economy, and affordable housing.

Finally, the Commission underlines the importance of monitoring progress towards the EU-wide 2030 headline targets, and the contributing national targets, in the areas of jobs, skills and poverty reduction.

Next steps

The Commission invites the Eurogroup and the Council to discuss the package and to endorse the guidance offered today. It looks forward to engaging in a constructive dialogue with the European Parliament on the contents of this package and each subsequent step in the European Semester cycle.

For more information

Quote(s)

The EU economy held steady through a series of major shocks and it is improving continuously. However, longstanding structural challenges are holding back the EU’s competitiveness. Today’s Semester offers guidance to boost our overall economic resilience, strengthen fiscal sustainability and improve social convergence across all Member States. We are paying particular attention to the speedy implementation of key reforms and investments as set out in national recovery plans. As part of the EU’s new economic governance framework, we look forward to receiving national fiscal structural plans from Member States that bring down debt and deficit and reflect today’s recommendations. The Semester remains pivotal to effectively coordinate policy and steer the EU through uncertain times.

^{Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People}

This year’s Spring package comes at a time of gradual economic recovery, but also of elevated geopolitical tensions and complex economic and social challenges. After almost four years under the General Escape Clause, our economic and fiscal policies are now entering a new cycle. This does not mean ‘back to normal’, because we are not living in normal times; and definitely not ‘back to austerity’, because this would be a terrible mistake. We focus today on three strands: strengthening competitiveness, stepping up the implementation of national recovery and resilience plans, and taking the first steps in applying our new economic governance. Today’s policy guidance reflects both the need for fiscal prudence and the immense investment needs we face. I am confident that it will help us deliver on our common objectives.

^{Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy}

Over the past five years, the Commission has provided the tools, support and funds to help Member States create resilient and inclusive economies through the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan. Further efforts are needed if Member States are to achieve the EU 2030 headline targets on employment, skills and poverty reduction. This spring package is particularly important as it will shape the fiscal, economic, employment and social policies of the Member States under the new economic governance framework. The social dimension remains central to the European Semester, it is mainstreamed in the country reports and country-specific recommendations with a view to ensuring fair and inclusive green and digital transitions and sustainable competitiveness. In this context, growth-enhancing reforms and investments should promote upward social convergence. As a first step, the Employment Guidelines proposed today suggest key areas of focus for the coming months. Major labour shortages persist and must be addressed swiftly, through more training offers, adequate wages and attractive working conditions.

^{Nicolas Schmit, Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights}

Source – EU Commission

EU Commission Q&A on the 2024 European Semester Spring package

Brussels, 19 June 2024

1. What is included in this year’s European Semester Spring Package?

The 2024 European Semester Spring Package includes:

A Communication on the main elements of the European Semester Spring Package;
Country reports for 27 Member States;
Country-specific recommendations for 27 Member States;
Fiscal Statistical Tablesproviding background data relevant for the assessment of the Member States’ budgetary situations;
AReport on compliancewith the deficit and debt criteria of the Treaty;
Post-programme surveillance reports forIreland,Spain,Cyprus,Portugal, andGreece; and
A proposal for a Council Decision on Employment guidelines for the Member States.

2. What are the key priorities for the European Semester in 2024?

In the face of the current geopolitical reality and complex economic and social challenges, the EU seeks to build a robust and future-proof economy that secures competitiveness and long-term prosperity for all Europeans. This requires an integrated approach across all policy areas to increase productivity, resilience, fairness and sustainable growth. The European Semester provides the policy coordination framework for that purpose, also embedding the implementation of NextGenerationEU, with the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) at its core, and of the Cohesion Policy programmes. While implementation of national recovery and resilience plans (RRPs) is underway, risk of delays need to be addressed. Member States should continue to focus on the full and timely implementation of the national plans until 2026 and Cohesion Policy programmes.

This year’s European Semester paysparticular attention to competitiveness. The Commission calls for ambitious action by Member States to address the challenges identified in the country reports at national and regional level. This includes strengthening competitiveness and resilience, by improving educational outcomes, supporting skills development, promoting research and innovation, facilitating access to finance and accelerating the green and digital transition.

3. What is the link between the European Semester Spring Package and the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF)?

Since its inception, the RRF – at the heart of NextGenerationEU – has become thecentral tool to deliver the EU policy priorities under the European Semester. The recovery and resilience plans (RRPs) under the RRF drive Member States’ reform and investment agendas while the European Semester, with its broader scope and multilateral surveillance, guides and complements the implementation of the RRPs. Together, the European Semester and the RRF continue to provide a robust framework for effective policy coordination in view of the current challenges.

In this context, thecountry-specific recommendationsadopted in this European Semester Spring Package provide guidance to Member States to adequately respond to those key challenges that are only partially or not addressed in Member States’ RRPs.

4. What is the link between the European Semester Spring Package and the new Economic Governance Framework?

The new fiscal surveillance process is embedded in the European Semester, which remains the central framework for economic and employment policy coordination.

In this Spring Package, the proposed country-specific recommendations call on Member States to submit their medium-term plans in a timely manner and contain a qualitative recommendation on the growth of net expenditure, differentiated according to the deficit and debt situation of a given Member State.

Going forward, all Member States are required to describe reforms and investments in their medium-term plans and explain how these measures address the socio-economic challenges identified in country-specific recommendations issued in the context of the European Semester. In addition, to benefit from a more gradual fiscal adjustment path, Member States can commit to implementing reforms and investments that comply with specific criteria, such as addressing country-specific recommendations and targeting the achievement of specific EU policy priorities.

The European Semester will remain the key channel for the Commission and the Council to monitor Member States’ economic and fiscal policies. In Spring, Member States will provide Annual Progress Reports that will include fiscal reporting and take stock of the implementation of reforms and investments covered by the medium-term plans. In future autumn packages, the Commission will assess compliance of the Draft Budgetary Plans of euro area Member States with the agreed multiannual net primary expenditure path and will continue to make an overall assessment of the budgetary situation and prospects for the euro area as a whole.

5. What is recommended in the European Semester to help Member States strengthen their competitiveness and that of the EU?

The Spring Package calls on Member States to take policy action to promote competitiveness and increase productivity. To this end, the CSRs specifically target improving thebusinessenvironment, improvingeducational outcomes,supportingskills development,promotingresearch and innovation, facilitatingaccess to financeand accelerating thegreen and digital transition,

Ensuring abusiness environment supportive to competitiveness, taking full advantage of the opportunities generated by the single market, especially for SMEs.
Improving educational outcomes and skills development: Member States should provide access to high-quality and inclusive education and training, with qualified teachers and modernised curricula. Addressing labour and skills shortages is essential to ensure the EU’s prosperity and social progress.
Improving access to finance:The EU’s economic performance is hindered by risky and innovative activities having limited access to financing. Member States should implement reforms to improve savings allocation and capital financing, and to facilitate capital market and alternative forms of financing, especially for SMEs
Improving research and innovation(R&I)and thebusiness environment: A favourable taxation and business environment are among the key elements that must be in place to foster R&I investments by the private sector. Member States should implement ambitious reforms to build integrated research and innovation ecosystems, focusing on governance, public research systems, science-business collaboration and knowledge transfers.
Supporting thedigital transition:Securing the digital transition is crucial to building a competitive modern economy.Greater public investment in digital infrastructure and skills is needed and regulatory barriers should be tackled.
Further accelerating thegreen transition:Increasing the autonomy, resilience and competitiveness of the EU’s net-zero industry is crucial for the green transition and EU competitiveness. In this context it is also important that Member States address labour and skills shortages, to better meet labour market needs, in particular with regards to the green (and digital) transitions.

6. Is the implementation of the national recovery and resilience plans on track?

The implementation of the national plans is continuing across Member States. The Commission has so far processed 46 payment requests under the RRF and has disbursed a total of over €240 billion to date for the successful implementation of reforms and investments by the Member States.

While overall implementation is moving ahead, some Member States are facing challenges, for instance due to limited administrative capacity or investment bottlenecks and are invited to urgently take measures to ensure the swift implementation of their recovery and resilience plans.

Detailed and up-to-date information on the state of play of the RRF in each Member State, as well as overall information on the Facility are available on theRRF websiteand on theRecovery and Resilience Scoreboard.

7. What is the link between the European Semester and the mid-term review of Cohesion Policy?

As defined in the Cohesion Policy legislation, this Semester cycle provides guidance on the key priorities in view of the upcoming mid-term review of the Cohesion Policy programmes. It includes a call to make use of the opportunities provided by the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) initiative to support the development of manufacturing capacities in critical technologies.

Cohesion Policy funds, in synergy with the RRF, are key to deliver on the Union’s political priorities, including the green and digital transition, and will continue to help regions achieve a balanced and sustainable long-term growth. Cohesion Policy funds account for a third of the European Union’s budget under the 2021-2027 MFF, amounting to €378 billion in EU funding. The majority of Cohesion Policy programmes were approved in 2022 and they will be implemented until 2029, with a mid-term review of the programmes planned in 2025.

The 2024 country-specific recommendations are one of the elements to be considered in the mid-term review of the Cohesion Policy programmes together with the progress of the implementation of National Energy and Climate Plans, the European Pillar of Social Rights, the socioeconomic situation of the Member State and its regions, progress in implementation, as well as existing evaluation results.

This year’s Spring package includes a comprehensive analysis of regional disparities across the EU as well as the investment and reforms needs ahead. In this context, the mid-term review of the Cohesion Policy programmes will be an opportunity to ensure that the future of the Policy will better target and address the challenges which have become more pressing and prominent over recent years.

The 2024 country-specific recommendations also encourage and invite Member States to consider the opportunities provided by the Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) initiative as they prepare for the mid-term review.

8. How are EU funds working together in helping Member States tackle the challenges identified in the European Semester?

Together the RRF, Cohesion Policy and other EU funds ensure a comprehensive and coherent approach to challenges faced by EU Member States and their regions, while also pursuing EU policy objectives. The country reports outline how these funding sources are used in a complementary manner, tackling major challenges such as the twin green and digital transition.

The ongoing implementation of the RRF, including the introduction of dedicated REPowerEU chapters in national RRPs, the Technical Support Instrument, and the use of Cohesion Policy funds, continue to play a pivotal role in shaping reform and investment agendas in all Member States. As set out in the Annual Sustainable Growth Survey, the 2024 cycle of the European Semester explores complementarities and synergies between different EU funding instruments and Member States’ reform and investment actions and takes stock of the ongoing implementation of RRPs and Cohesion Policy programmes.

The RRF has disbursed over €240 billion to Member States in grants and loans so far, representing 36% of the total funds available. Also, over €256 billion has been disbursed under the Cohesion Policy funds since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.

As illustrated in this year’s country reports, these instruments have supported the EU’s recovery towards a greener, more digital, fairer and more resilient future through job creation, improved competitiveness, macroeconomic stability and territorial and social cohesion.

9. How do the European Semester and the recovery and resilience plans support the implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights and meeting 2030 targets for employment, skills and poverty reduction?

Through the European Semester, the Commission monitors progress on the implementation of theEuropean Pillar of Social Rightsand the2030 EU headline targetson employment, skills, and poverty reduction, as well as on the contributing national targets. The state of play is presented notably in theJoint Employment Report as part of the Autumn European Semester package, as well as in the specific country reports. This is underpinned by the Social Scoreboard and its indicators across the areas of 1) equal opportunities and access to the labour market, 2) fair working conditions and 3) social protection and inclusion. In addition, this year the Commission has carried out a two-stage analysis of employment, skills and social challenges across Member States, based on the principles of a Social Convergence Framework outlined by the EPSCO Council.

The Recovery and Resilience Facility represents a unique opportunity to support investments and reforms that contribute to the implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights and the achievement of the EU headline targets. Of the plans’ allocation, over 25%, or around €163 billion, is dedicated to social expenditure. This comes on top of national and EU financing through the Cohesion Policy funding, notably theEuropean Social Fund Plus, which provides for the period 2021-2027 almost €95.8 billion from the EU budget to invest in people. The implementation of the Cohesion Policy programmes and the RRPs until 2026 will contribute substantially to improving the EU’s competitiveness and boosting EU cohesion.

10. What has the Recovery and Resilience Facility achieved in the first three years since its inception?

The implementation of the RRPs continues to move ahead. Thanks to its unique design, the RRF swiftly provided significant financial support to Member States to address their economic and social challenges in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis, fast-forwarding the twin green and digital transitions, and strengthening their resilience for future challenges.

Member States are delivering on the reform and investment agendas included in their plans. By the end of 2023, more than 1,150 milestones and targets had been assessed by the Commission as satisfactorily fulfilled. The achievement of these steps in the implementation of the reforms and investments has led to positive change and tangible results on the ground. With the help of the RRF, for instance, over 28 million megawatt hours (MWh) in energy consumption have been saved. Over 5.6 million additional households now have internet access via very high-capacity networks, and almost 9 million people have benefitted from protection measures against climate-related disasters, such as floods and wildfires. To date, over €240 billion in RRF funds has already been disbursed to Member States.

The full assessment and detailed progress of the RRF of the last three years can be found on theMid-term evaluation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) websiteand theRecovery and Resilience Scoreboard.

11. What are the main findings of the country reports?

The country reports suggest policy action needed at Member State level to overcome long-term economic and social challenges, with a particular focus on increasing competitiveness and productivity. They identify challenges that are not addressed, or only partially addressed, by each Member State’s RRPs, as well as any emerging challenges. They also closely examine progress on the implementation of RRPs, providing examples of milestones and targets reached, while highlighting cases where implementation risks and delays should be addressed.

The reports present a thorough analysis of the countries’ competitiveness challenges, including in terms of productivity growth, investment dynamics and labour and skill shortages.

They include an assessment of progress on the implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights, via the Social Scoreboard, and on achieving the 2030 EU headline and national targets on employment, skills and poverty reduction, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals.

They also provide an updated and more detailed analysis on energy security and affordability as well as on Member States progresses on the energy transition including their draft updated National and Energy Climate Plans.

12. What are the main themes in the country-specific recommendations addressed to Member States?

The 2024 country-specific recommendations focus on:

Ensuring a prudent fiscal policy in 2024-2025:Member States should submit a fiscal plan in line with the requirements of the new legislation by 20 September, unless it is agreed to extend the deadline by a reasonable period. Additionally, Member States are recommended to improve fiscal sustainability through structural reforms such as by implementing a spending review or tax and benefit reforms.
Emphasising the importance of swift implementation of recovery and resilience plans and Cohesion Policy funds: The recommendations call on Member States to continue, or to accelerate implementation to ensure completion of reforms and investments by August 2026. Country-specific recommendations also call for an acceleration of the implementation of the Cohesion Policy programmes, which also requires speeding up in some Member States. In some Member States, this requires the strengthening of administrative capacity and tackling implementation challenges. Country-specific recommendations also highlight challenges which Member States should take into account when assessing their Cohesion Policy programmes, at the latest by 31 March 2025, in the context of the mid-term review. The country-specific recommendations also invite Member States to consider the opportunities provided by the recently adopted Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) initiative to improve competitiveness in the context of the mid-term review.
Tackling key competitiveness challenges:Member States should act on a wide range of policy issues affecting productivity and competitiveness, notably with regards to educational outcomes, skills and training, labour market policies, business environment, education, research and innovation and resource efficiency.

13. In which areas is the implementation of country-specific recommendations particularly lagging behind? What will the Commission do to improve this?

The 2024 cycle of the European Semester takes stock of Member States’ policy action to address structural challenges identified in the country-specific recommendations (CSRs) adopted since 2019. Following the establishment of the RRF, which is a key tool to deliver EU and national policy priorities, this assessment takes into account the policy action taken by Member States in the context of their recovery and resilience plans.

Progress in the implementation of CSRs adopted in 2023 has been substantial. Member States have made at least some progress in implementing almost 59% of the recommendations addressed to them in July 2023. From a multiannual perspective, at least some progress has been achieved for 71% of the 2019-2022 CSRs. In particular, significant further progress has been achieved on the 2019 and 2020 CSRs, which were the initial relevant CSRs addressed by the RRF. The percentage of these CSRs having recorded at least some progress of implementation has steadily increased to 75% now, up from 68% in 2023.

Still, reform implementation differs across policy areas.In recent years, Member States have made most progress on access to finance and financial services, anti-money laundering, labour market functioning and budgetary framework and fiscal governance. On the other hand, progress has been particularly slow on taxation policy, tax administration, tax evasion and tax avoidance, non-discrimination and equal opportunities, pension systems, and housing.

Altogether the RRF, as a performance-based instrument, has accelerated policy action to implement CSRs across policy areas, and it is expected to further reinforce implementation in the years to come as additional reforms and investments in the RRPs are undertaken.

Detailed information on the 2024 assessment of CSR implementation is included in an appendix of the Chapeau Communication and in the Country Reports.

14. What fiscal guidance is the Commission providing to Member States for the period ahead?

The fiscal recommendations that we propose this year as part of the Spring Package call on each Member State to submit its medium-term plan in a timely manner and recommends that the growth in net expenditure in 2025 is consistent with the fiscal adjustment required under the new economic governance framework.

By 20 September, each Member State is to submit its medium-term plan, in which it will commit to the growth ceiling of net expenditure for the next four years, to ensure debt sustainability. The Commission will present a consistent Autumn Semester Package, including the draft recommendations endorsing the medium-term plans, the opinions on the 2025 draft budgetary plans for euro area Member States and, for the Member States where an excessive deficit is identified, the draft Excessive Deficit Procedure recommendations.

For each Member State, once the medium-term plan is assessed and endorsed, the net expenditure path set by the Council in a recommendation will constitute the single operational reference for fiscal surveillance during the implementation phase.

15. Does the Commission have any concerns regarding Member States’ fiscal sustainability?

In spring 2024, the Commission updated its assessment of fiscal sustainability challenges in EU countries in the short, medium and long term. The update is based on the 2024 Spring Economic Forecast and reflects the agreed long-term economic and budgetary projections of the Ageing Report 2024, jointly prepared by the European Commission and the European Policy Centre.

The assessment finds that fiscal sustainability challenges are low in all EU Member States in the short term, while being elevated in the medium and long term in several countries, due to projected high and/or increasing debt ratios in some Member States at unchanged policies, and sensitivity to shocks. Adverse debt dynamics are explained in several cases by the economic and budgetary impact of population ageing, as well as the less supportive interest – growth rate differential conditions expected in the future.

16. Following today’s report, what are the next steps in the opening of Excessive Deficit Procedures?

The excessive deficit procedure (EDP) follows a step-by-step procedure that is outlined in detail under Art. 126 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

As part of the Spring Package, a report under Article 126(3) has been adopted. Now the Economic and Financial Committee has two weeks to formulate its opinion. In July, the Commission intends to formulate opinions addressed to the Member States in which excessive deficits exist. At the same time, the Commission intends to propose to the Council decisions establishing the existence of an excessive deficit. The next step in the procedure consists in the Commission proposal for Council recommendations to the Member States concerned to put an end to the excessive deficit situation. They should include the deadlines to take effective action and to correct the excessive deficit, and a corrective path that ensures that the deficit was brought and maintained below the reference value within that deadline.

The Commission intends to propose such recommendations together with its Opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans. This would ensure consistency between the budgetary requirements under the excessive deficit procedure and the adjustment path set out in the medium-term fiscal-structural plans, as part of a coherent package that would include the recommendations endorsing the medium-term plans, the EDP recommendations for Member States where an excessive deficit was identified and the opinions on the 2025 draft budgetary plans for euro area Member States.

17. How does the Commission assess the recent evolution of macroeconomic imbalances?

The main conclusions of the in-depth reviews for Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, and Sweden on possible macroeconomic imbalances are as follows:

- Current accounts improved in 2023, with marked reductions in energy prices. However, concerns about some large current account deficits and surpluses remain.
- House prices have moderated or even fallen in several Member States, but underlying issues, including housing undersupply, have not been resolved.
- Cost competitiveness developments are easing. However, divergent price and cost dynamics are still an issue in some countries.
- Large public, private and external debts have continued their downward trend with strong reductions last year on the back of marked nominal GDP growth and weak credit flows.
- Still tight financing conditions may result in risks for borrowers and lenders, in particular, where re-financing needs are large.
- The banking sector has withstood the recent macroeconomic developments well, and non-performing loans have continued to fall recently but often only marginally.

18. What is included in the proposal on guidelines for employment policies?

The Commission is proposingguidelines for Member States’ employment policies in 2024. These guidelines setcommon prioritiesfor national employment and social policies to make them fairer and more inclusive.

The 2024 annual update of the 2023 guidelines adds more elements related to skills and labour shortages, also related to the dedicated Action Plan put forward by the Commission, as well as references to new technologies, artificial intelligence and algorithmic management and their impact on the world of work. It also touches on recent policy initiatives of particular relevance such as platform work and affordable housing.

Moreover, the Employment Guidelines are updated to include references to the 2030 national targets on employment, skills and poverty reduction, alongside the already existing 2030 headline targets at EU level. Other targeted adjustments include:

References to legal migration, in full complementarity to harnessing talent from within the EU, including in relation to the recognition of skills of third country nationals, and in light of the EU Talent Pool;
References to improving educational outcomes among young students, following the recent declines experienced on basic skills levels, including among top performers;
References to addressing gaps in access to social protection for the self-employed and for workers in non-standard forms of employment, in light of the Council Conclusions on social protection for the self-employed.

Following the adoption of the Spring Package on 19 June, the proposal will be negotiated in the EPSCO Committees and opinions will be produced by the European Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) and the Committee of the Regions (CoR). The formal adoption by the Council is envisaged for November 2024.

19. What are the main recommendations for the upcoming mid-term review of the Cohesion Policy programmes?

The Cohesion Policy programmes were agreed two years ago and remain indispensable to further narrow economic, social, and territorial disparities across the EU. The focus should be achieving faster impact on the ground, as both the RRF and Cohesion Policy programmes address important socio-economic challenges faced by the EU, the Member States and regions. Therefore, the 2024 country-specific recommendations call on Member States to continue with the implementation of planned priorities at an accelerated pace, strengthening administrative capacity and simplifying procedures, where necessary.

At the same time, the mid-term review of the Cohesion Policy programmes is an opportunity to better address challenges which have become more pressing and prominent over recent years. Targeted orientations are provided in the 2024 country-specific recommendations to encourage Member States to take action in the mid-term review of the Cohesion Policy programmes to better address such challenges. The country-specific recommendations also invite Member States to consider the opportunities provided by the recently adopted Strategic Technologies for Europe Platform (STEP) initiative to improve competitiveness in the context of the mid-term review.

20. What is the additional analysis of employment, skills and social challenges carried out by the Commission this year?

In this Semester cycle, the Commission has carried out for the first time a two-stage analysis of employment, skills and social challenges in each Member State. This analysis is based on the revised Social Scoreboard and the principles of a Social Convergence Framework discussed by the EPSCO Council:

In thefirst-stage analysis, labour market, skills and social policies are analysed for all 27 Member States to identify potential risks to upward social convergence. The first-stage analysis was presented in the proposal for the Joint Employment Report 2024, which was published by the Commission as part of the Semester Autumn Package andadoptedby the Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council in March 2024.
A more detailedsecond-stage analysiswas conducted in relation to the countries for which potential risks to upward social convergence have been identified in the first stage. The analysis waspublishedby the Commission services in May 2024 for seven Member States (Bulgaria, Estonia, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary, Romania).

The findings of the two-stage analysis are reflected in the country reports, after having informed multilateral discussions in the EPSCO committees, and have served to underpin the Commission’s proposals for country-specific Recommendations.

21. What are the next steps in the European Semester process?

The Commission invites the Eurogroup and Council to discuss the package and endorse the guidance offered today. It looks forward to engaging in a constructive dialogue with the European Parliament on the contents of this package and each subsequent step in the European Semester cycle. More details can be found onEuropean Semester webpage.

The Commission also calls on all EU Member States to implement the recommendations fully and in a timely manner, in close dialogue with their social partners, civil society organisations and other stakeholders.

For more information

Remarks by Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis, Commissioner Schmit and Commissioner Gentiloni at the press conference of the 2024 European Semester: Spring Package

Executive Vice-President Dombrovskis

This year’s European Semester comes at a time when we are slowly emerging from several years of major shocks. First, the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, Russia’s protracted war against Ukraine and the related energy price surges. Throughout this period, the EU has shown an impressive degree of economic and social resilience. Despite massive challenges, we see a strong labour market and record-low unemployment in the EU. This is largely thanks to the unified policy response.

These are unprecedented challenges, and they have also led us to reform the annual Semester process, making it more adaptable to fast-changing circumstances. And it is all the better for the changes made.

As an example, the Semester is now instrumental in linking EU funding with reforms and investments – as we can see with the Recovery and Resilience Facility.

From the economic perspective, we see a slow but steady brightening in prospects. While high inflation took a toll in Europe, with a severe impact on people’s purchasing power, today it is declining and should continue on a downwards path.

As inflation loosens its grip on households’ budgets, consumption is set to rebound and bolster growth, which should pick up gradually this year and next.

However, there are still many challenges to tackle, many of which are long-standing structural issues.

They have a direct impact on the EU’s competitiveness and resilience. For example, we need to:

raise productivity growth through research and innovation,
improve access to finance,
reduce labour and skills shortages,
and improve the business environment.

Our competitiveness is intrinsically linked to a further push to upward economic and social convergence, within and between Member States. We need to build on the success of the 13 Member States that joined the EU since 2004.

And all this while making sure that nobody is left behind, with the help of improved employment, skills and social policies.

This is why this European Semester cycle introduces the principles of a social convergence framework. Nicolas will say more on how we have strengthened our analysis.

In today’s challenging landscape, it is vital for the EU to coordinate its economic and employment policies effectively. The European Semester is our main compass and guide for doing so. Today’s package therefore has a strong focus on ensuring the EU’s long-term competitiveness.

This requires making improvements and reforms across a wide range of areas. These are addressed in country-specific recommendations – or CSRs – that we are proposing today.

In all these areas, Member States can already achieve a great deal by putting their national Recovery and Resilience Plans into effect. And maintaining the momentum in doing so. We cannot waste time here. Overall, the progress has been good.

So far, the RRF has disbursed more than €240 billion to Member States in grants and loans, representing 37% of total funds available. This represents significant progress with reforms and investments on the ground.

At the same time, however, several Member States face accumulated delays and challenges in implementation.

With the RRF’s cut-off date fast approaching by the end of 2026, they must address these issues urgently. Today’s package contains tailored recommendations to that effect.

In addition, new challenges and policy priorities have emerged beyond what is reflected in national Recovery and Resilience Plans.

The CSRs recognise these further socio-economic challenges and provide tailor-made advice on how to address them, focused on bolstering competitiveness.

They also guide countries in preparing the forthcoming mid-term review of cohesion policy programmes, providing an opportunity to consider adjustments where needed.

On the fiscal side: now that the revised economic governance framework has entered into force, this year marks a transition for EU policy coordination.

The new fiscal rules are fully embedded in today’s package.

The new set-up calls for Member States to prepare medium-term fiscal-structural plans, to be submitted by September 20.

The plans will set out expenditure paths for the next four years, along with commitments to reforms and investments that are underpinned by the CSRs proposed today.

This will be especially important if a country chooses to request an extension of its agreed fiscal adjustment period.

Thanks to its stronger focus on reforms and investments, the new framework allows countries to better achieve both debt sustainability and sustainable growth.

I will now turn to the excessive deficit procedures. These are a standard element of the European Semester process.

They provide a supportive framework for countries to strengthen their macroeconomic stability, providing a solid basis for sustainable competitiveness.

The Commission has identified 12 Member States with deficits that exceed 3% of GDP.

We have analysed the reasons for this situation and concluded that the deficit criterion is not fulfilled in seven Member States: Belgium, France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Slovakia and Poland.

This means that, for these Member States, the Commission will propose decisions establishing the existence of an excessive deficit procedure.

The Council – the Economic and Financial Committee – will have to provide an opinion on this and we will follow with the next steps in July. After that, the recommendations for correcting the excessive deficits will come in the autumn.

This will ensure consistency with Member States’ medium-term fiscal-structural plans which are due in September.

A brief mention of Romania, currently the only EU country under the excessive deficit procedure.

We have found that Romania has not taken effective action.

Its deficit was well above the recommended target of 4.4% of GDP, while the fiscal effort fell substantially short of what was required, despite resilient economic growth. The Commission will therefore propose a new adjustment path in the autumn.

Lastly, on macro-economic imbalances.

In general, vulnerabilities are receding.

In many countries, cost and price competitiveness pressures are easing, debt ratios have continued to decline, and the banking sector has shown resilience.

However, the overall positive picture also hides clear divergences. In a few cases, the dynamics are worrying – Paolo will give you more details on this.

I will stop here, and I give the floor to Paolo.

Thank you.

Remarks by EU Commissioner Schmit

Good afternoon.

Thesocial and employment dimension remains centralto the European Semester.

It ismainstreamedin the Country Reports and Country-specific Recommendations, to ensure that the green and digital transitions are fair and inclusive.

The chosen focus onsustainablecompetitivenessof this year’s spring package is very important for the future of Europe’s economy in the global context, and for the cohesion of our societies.

Strengthening competitiveness is also key forqualityjob creation, for growth and for the EU’s overall resilience.

Boosting productivity growth and competitiveness in the EU essentially relies on the strengths of our human capital –our people– a message that comes across strongly from this year’s package.

A common theme in the country reports and CSRs is related toskills.

Building on the momentum of the European Year of Skills, Member States shouldaccelerate their investments in training and reskillingprogrammes to helpplug labour shortages.

This will also help us deliver on the EU’s headline target of having at least 60% of adults participating in training every year, by 2030.

The other headline target linked to the European Pillar of Social Rights relates to poverty, which is still all too pervasive in our societies: for this reason, we have committed to lift at least 15 million people out of poverty by the end of this decade.

It is universally accepted that combating child poverty should be considered as an investment in our societies and economic future.

Several CSRs in this Spring Package indeed relate to poverty reduction, including energy poverty, which was exacerbated by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

Employment guidelines

Turning to the proposal for Employment Guidelines:

These guidelines setcommon prioritiesfor national employment and social policies to make themfairer and more inclusive.

They are regularly updated toreflect the latest policy initiativesthat have been presented, as well as thesocio-economic contextin which we are living.

Over thepast five years, the Commission has provided thetools, support and fundsto help Member States create resilient and inclusive economies through the European Pillar of Social Rights Action Plan.

However,further efforts are neededif Member States are to achieve the2030 headline targetson employment, skills and poverty reduction.

The Employment Guidelines aregrouped under four headlines:

Boosting the demand for labour
Enhancing labour supply and improving access to employment, lifelong acquisition of skills and competences
- In most of the MS we are facing labour and skills shortages in various sectors. This is why we adopted an action plan to address these shortages.
Enhancing the functioning of labour markets and the effectiveness of social dialogue – reaffirmed at the Social Partner Summit at Val Duchesse recently; and
Promoting equal opportunities for all, fostering social inclusion and fighting poverty

To give you a few examples of concrete guidelines, our proposal states that Member States should:

support the creation and growth ofmicro, small and medium-sized enterprises, including through access to finance
actively promote the development of thesocial economy, including social enterprises
make theteaching professionmore attractive, and invest in teachers’ digital skills
increase opportunities forrecognising and validating skillsacquired outside of formal education and training
enhancechildcare facilitiesin order to facilitate women’s full access to the labour market as we still have a gender gap of more than 10%
provide unemployed and inactive peopletailor-made job-search assistance
engage intalent partnershipsto enhance legal migration pathways; and
promoteaccess to permanent housingand the provision of enabling support services for persons experiencing homelessness.

Social Convergence Framework

The newSocial Convergence Frameworkwhich has been integrated into the Semester for the first time.

The Social Convergence Framework consists of a two-stage analysis to assess therisks and challenges to achieving upward social convergencein Member States.

In thefirst-stage analysis, labour market, skills and social policies were analysed for all 27 Member States. The first-stage analysis was presented in the proposal for the Joint Employment Report (JER) 2024 as part of the Semester Autumn Package and adopted by labour ministers at EPSCO in March 2024.

A more detailedsecond-stage analysiswas then carried out for the countries where potential risks had been identified, namely Bulgaria, Estonia, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, Hungary and Romania. The analysis was published by the Commission services last month (May 2024).

The findings of the two-stage analysis arereflected in the country reports, after having informed multilateral discussions in the Council.

They also underpin relevantCountry-specific Recommendationsissued in this 2024 Semester cycle.

For instance, you will see that we have issued CSRs mentioning theadequacy of social protection, and in particular the need to address challenges related to access and quality of healthcare and long-term care, for Estonia, Finland, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

We have also issued CSRs on the need tostrengthen incentives to workor toenhance the labour market participation and skillsof under-represented and vulnerable groups for Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and Slovakia.

Finally, we issued CSRs related toeducation and skillsfor almost all Member States.

Thank you.

Remarks by EU Commissioner Gentiloni

This year’s Spring economic package comes at a time of gradual economic recovery, with cooling inflation and a still very strong labour market.

But it is also a time of elevated geopolitical tensions and complex economic and social challenges.

Against this backdrop, we are providing detailed guidance aimed at building a more competitive, fiscally sustainable and socially cohesive Europe.

After almost four years of General Escape Clause, our economic and fiscal policies enter a new cycle.

This does not mean back to normal – because we are not living in normal times. Much less, back to austerity – because this would be a terrible mistake.

We focus on three strands in our guidance:

Strengthening competitiveness, a cross-cutting feature of our country-specific recommendations;
Making the most of EU funding opportunities, which means continuing and where necessary stepping up implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility and Cohesion Policy programmes;
And moving forward with the first steps in the application of our new economic governance, reflecting both the requirement for fiscal prudence and addressing the immense investment needs we face.

Recommendations on competitiveness

Let me begin then with competitiveness.

Our recommendations cover a broad panoply of issues to strengthen the competitive sustainability that is at the heart of our economic development strategy for Europe, including:

skills mismatches;
improving the business environment;
phasing out fossil fuels;
and addressing demographic challenges.

Recommendations on RRP/Cohesion Policy

Each Member State also receives a recommendation on the implementation of its national recovery and resilience plan. These reflect the different pace of implementation and degree of urgency in each Member State.

This recommendation also addresses challenges in implementing Cohesion policy programmes.

Fiscal policy recommendations

Turning now to the fiscal recommendations, all Member States are recommended to submit their medium-term fiscal-structural plans by 20 September.

All should pursue prudent fiscal policies by ensuring that the growth in net primary expenditure in 2025 and beyond is consistent with our new governance framework. This is kept qualitative to not pre-empt the medium-term plans.

Member States also receive recommendations covering fiscal-structural elements, such as improving the tax mix for more inclusive and sustainable growth; addressing aggressive tax planning risks; securing the fiscal sustainability of social security, health, long-term care and pensions; improving the efficiency of public spending. These recommendations are very important because they are also in a certain sense guidance for reforms and investments to be included in Member States’ medium-term plans.

The 126(3) Report

Beyond the fiscal recommendations, we have also published today a report under article 126(3) on excessive deficits. This report assesses compliance with the deficit criterion of the Treaty for the ten Member States that reported a deficit above three percent of GDP last year, plus two that plan a deficit above three percent for this year.So twelve overall. The report takes into account all relevant factors, including the increase in defence investment spending, a new element in the revised legislation.

The report concludes that the deficit criterion is not fulfilled in seven of these Member States:Belgium, France, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland and Slovakia.

Today’s report is the first step in the process of opening an Excessive Deficit Procedure. It will be for the Council in July to adopt a Decision establishing the existence of an excessive deficit in those Member States. The EDP recommendations on the correction of the excessive deficits will be proposed only in November, to ensure consistency with the adjustment path set out in the medium-term plans.

We have concluded that the deficit criterion is fulfilled by Czechia, Estonia, Finland, Slovenia and Spain:

For Czechia, the excess is considered temporary, with overall mitigating relevant factors.
For Estonia, the deficit was above but close to the reference value in 2023 and here again, there were mitigating relevant factors.
For Slovenia and Finland, the excessive deficit planned for this year is subject to uncertainty and, according to our forecast, this planned breach is not confirmed for Slovenia and it is projected to remain close to the 3% in 2024 and fall below it in 2025 for Finland.
And for Spain, the excess is considered temporary, as the deficit is projected to be at 3% in 2024, according to our Spring Forecast. The Commission will, in any case, continue to monitor budgetary developments in Spain and re-assess the situation in autumn.

We have also assessed compliance with the ongoing Excessive Deficit Procedure for Romania. We consider that Romania has not taken effective action to correct the excessive deficit.

Let me underline that the report describes a different situation across Member States. But overall, the picture is one of stability and gradually decreasing deficits (Spring Forecast for EU: 2023: 3.5%; 2024: -3.0%; 2025: -2.9%). And this is a picture that conveys a message of confidence.

Macroeconomic imbalances

Lastly, on macroeconomic imbalances, a few words on the conclusions of our in-depth reviews of 12 Member States. In terms of horizontal messages:

Current accounts improved in 2023, with marked reductions in energy prices. But concerns remain about some large current account deficits and surpluses.
House prices have moderated or even fallen in several Member States, but underlying issues, including housing undersupply, have not been resolved.
Cost competitiveness concerns are easing, but divergent price and cost dynamics are still an issue in some countries.
Large public, private and external debts have continued their downward trend – with strong reductions last year on the back of high nominal GDP growth and weak credit flows – but with inflation easing, deleveraging is slowing down too.
The banking sector has proved resilient, and non-performing loans have continued to fall, albeit often only marginally. But tightening financing conditions may still increase risks for borrowers and lenders.

Coming to the position of individual Member States, of the 12 Member States subject to an in-depth review, eight have been identified with imbalances: Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden and Slovakia; and one with excessive imbalances (Romania).

Five Member States have been de-escalated (Spain, Portugal, France, Greece and Italy), while two have been escalated (Slovakia and Romania).

In the case of France and Italy, fiscal imbalances and sustainability risks are expected to be reduced through compliance with the fiscal trajectories defined in the medium-term plans under the reformed economic governance framework, and consistent with the excessive deficit procedure.

Conclusion

Our economies have shown an extraordinary resilience in recent years, also thanks to our collective policy response.

Looking ahead, we must continue to address the structural challenges that are holding back our competitiveness, starting with the determined implementation of the recovery and resilience plans. I am confident that the European Semester, together with the new economic governance framework, will continue to help us deliver on our common objectives.

Source – EU Commission

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