24.2.2023
Globsec Policy Institute
The report looks at the course of the war, identifying initial lessons for armed forces in NATO countries. It provides political recommendations derived from Ukrainian experiences.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Experts react: factors shaping the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2023
This analysis contains several experts’ comments on issues such as the life-or-death question of continued outside aid for Ukraine and the resilience of the Ukrainian people; cohesion in the Russian military and the potential for catastrophic collapse; the looming nuclear question; and how a conflict might end.
Observer Research Foundation
NATO should pursue peace over victory in Ukraine: here is why and how
This brief focuses on how the war can be ended without surrendering to Russia or depriving Ukraine of its right to self-defence. A close look at the military, political, and moral dimensions of the war is needed to understand why it will continue unless the West settles it.
European Council on Foreign Relations
United West, divided from the rest: global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine
This policy brief looks into a new poll which suggests that Russia’s war on Ukraine has consolidated ‘the West’; European and American citizens hold many views in common about major global questions. Europeans and Americans agree they should help Ukraine to win, that Russia is their avowed adversary, and that the coming global order will most likely be defined by two blocs led respectively by the US and China. In contrast, citizens in China, India, and Turkiye prefer a quick end to the war even if Ukraine has to concede territory.
Rand Europe
From gatherer of lands to gravedigger: a political assessment of Putin’s war on Ukraine
In invading Ukraine, Putin violated international law and effectively tore up numerous long-standing Russian commitments to maintain Ukrainian and European security. This article assesses how Putin, by using military aggression to forcibly change the borders of sovereign European states, has again violated one of the core rules that has for the most part preserved European peace for over 70 years.
Atlantic Council
Ukrainians are united in rejection of any compromise with the Kremlin
This article refers to a Ukrainian nationwide survey which offers important insights into Ukrainian perceptions of victory. Perhaps the most significant finding is that Ukrainians are not ready to accept a return to the status quo on the eve of the full-scale invasion when Russia already occupied Crimea and parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in eastern Ukraine. Instead, a commanding majority of Ukrainians are convinced that only the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within the country’s internationally recognized borders can bring peace.
Japan Institute of International Affairs
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and international response
The paper analyses how, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian forces, with military support from Western countries, responded by launching a large-scale counteroffensive in the summer. Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of four provinces in eastern and southern Ukraine in September, and since October it has been escalating the war, including carrying out missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, without a clear exit strategy.
Chatham House
One year on, how can the war on Ukraine end?
According to the brief, no sane participant or observer of this war wants it prolonged unnecessarily. But now is not the time to be advocating an urgent ‘solution’.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
The reluctant co-aggressor: Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine
The article analyses the role of Belarus in the Russian war against Ukraine, the anti-war attitude of the public and the probability of bigger involvement of Belarus in the aggression. It details the current military strength of Belarus including air and land forces, as well as the Russian military presence in the country.
Institut français des Relations internationales
Liberté, Union européenne, OTAN: la société ukrainienne a fait son choix
Ukrainian resistance is part of a long process, which began with independence in 1991 and was confirmed in 2014. The paper argues that a continuous trend has brought the country’s opinion very much closer to the EU and then to NATO, leading it to seek a real separation from Russia and especially from its Soviet historical heritage. Ukraine intends to emerge from the war as a true European democracy.
Chatham House
How Ukraine’s invention and resilience confounds Russia
Years of adversity, public unity and private-sector creativity have made Ukraine a formidable enemy, writes the author. Ukraine remains resolute in resisting Russian aggression because it deployed a ‘total defence’ approach, which combines both military and civilian components.
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung
Journalismus in der Ukraine: mehr als ein Informationskrieg
According to the paper, Ukraine’s regional and national media is threatened by the brutal Russian invasion and occupation. The war changed the work of journalists. Media business models are under threat.
Chatham House
Ukraine needs women to win the war – and the peace
The brief argues women are vital in the war effort – but better female political representation will also be needed to rebuild Ukraine.
Chatham House
Helping Ukraine’s sex-crime survivors
The growing numbers of Ukrainian women recovering from sexual violence at the hands of Russian forces need support, protection, and legal aid, claims the author.
Migration Policy Institute
Prolonged Ukrainian displacement: an uneasy marriage of reception, integration, and return policies
This commentary explains the Ukrainian displacement crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion, and the fact that European policymakers are having to confront the likelihood of a prolonged stay for millions of Ukrainians and the prospect of new displacement.
Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel
The Ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?
This paper presents the Ukraine support tracker, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
A year of war in Ukraine’s foreign trade
The article analyses Ukraine’s foreign trade patterns in 2022 by presenting statistics in exports and imports in terms of transport modes, geographical regions, and categories of food.
Center for Social and Economic Research
Economic priorities in post-war Ukraine
The report focuses on the essential reforms that will help Ukraine with the post-war reconstruction and enable progress in its efforts on the way to EU membership. It addresses many of the complex tasks that Ukraine needs to complete, with the main challenge being the rule of law.
Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW, Köln)
Auswirkungen des Krieges in der Ukraine auf die Weltwirtschaft: IW-Schätzung der Größenordnungen
According to this paper, global economic output in 2022 is likely to have been well over 1,600 billion US dollars lower than it would have been without the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, global production losses could amount to around another 1,000 billion US dollars, given the current framework conditions.
Chatham House
Ukraine business resilience can inform reconstruction
The brief looks at how Ukrainian companies are showing remarkable resilience by continuously adapting production processes and logistics to meet the dynamic challenges of the war.
Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches internationales
Russia’s GDP fell in 2022, but less than analysts expected. Projections indicate that this decline is expected to continue in 2023 before giving way to a period of stagnation. The author explains this situation and these forecasts.
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik
Russia’s war economy: how sanctions reduce military capacity
Sanctions are a strong signal of Western resolve to oppose Russia’s war against Ukraine and have significantly weakened its ability to wage war. But Russia is adapting, turning its economy into a war economy, ramping up military production, and adjusting to sanctions. This brief looks at Russia’s economic adjustment with a focus on the shifting of resources to war purposes and the effect of sanctions on military production.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
A continent forged in crisis: assessing Europe one year into the war
This report gives us an overview of the situation in Europe after one year of war (past, present and future). It notes inter alia that the coming year – the last before EU parliamentary elections – will be critical to Europe’s future direction. While the outcome of the war remains uncertain, there are many economic and political challenges that will require significant political leadership, vision, and capital.
Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations
From buffer to frontier: Ukraine and the EU
In June 2022, the EU granted candidate status to Ukraine. The paper qualifies it as a strong political statement, which was welcomed as such in Kyiv. But for a country at war, symbols do not suffice. Ukraine was a buffer state; it has become a frontier state. The EU should finally come up with an overall plan to provide military support to Ukraine over the long term, gradually taking over the main effort from the United States.
Centre for European Reform
The impact of the war in Ukraine: annual report 2022
This annual report starts with an essay on how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe, outlining 10 main consequences.
Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)
Lecciones de la guerra en Ucrania: piedra, papel o tijera
Building on the assumption that the invasion of Ukraine is the first ‘triple’ war in European history, the article analyses some key lessons for all the actors involved. It concludes that none of them is likely to achieve a definitive victory in the conflict.
Fondation Robert Schuman
Geopolitical and technocratic: EU international actorness and Russia’s war against Ukraine
La guerre en Ukraine et l’action de l’Union européenne: expertise technique et politique
The policy paper examines the EU’s pre-war and wartime policies towards Ukraine and the Eastern Neighbourhood countries, arguing that the EU’s ability to be both a geopolitical and technocratic power will determine its future role in this area.
Atlantic Council
In 2022, the war in Ukraine awakened Europe: here’s how it must adapt in 2023
Europe has been faced with a new geopolitical reality in the aftermath of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. This paper compiles views of experts on how the EU has been compelled to reconsider everything from its military posture and relations with Ukraine to tech and trade challenges and its own institutions.
International Crisis Group
Keeping the right balance in supporting Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine may go on for some time to come. This paper explains how the EU and its member states can keep supporting Kyiv while avoiding direct clashes with Moscow.
Observer Research Foundation
Ukraine’s charm offensive in Europe
The article explores the diplomatic outreach to Europe which was largely aimed at persuading the European allies to provide weapons and larger military assistance to support the Ukrainian military to counter the expected Russian spring offensive.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine: »Fahren auf Sicht« – auch was das Völkerrecht angeht
According to the federal government, Germany supports the Ukraine by supplying arms in the exercise of their individual right to self-defense against the war of aggression waged by Russia but does not become a party to the war. The paper argues that, in terms of international law the question arises as to when support in an armed conflict turns into an indirect use of force.
Chatham House
NATO can learn from Ukraine’s military innovation
Expensive procurement and bureaucratic torpor hamper the alliance – Ukraine’s embrace of cyber technology and new funding shows the way forward, claims the author.
Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet (Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade)
Serbia and the Russia–Ukraine war: implications and challenges II
The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022 has had a marked effect on the Western Balkan region, notes the report. Among the countries of this region, Serbia is in a unique situation due to its military neutrality, and the fact that it follows a balancing foreign policy between the Western powers on the one hand, and Russia, Turkey, and China on the other hand. The paper continues to review the consequences and challenges of the war on Serbia by examining the energy domain.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the political stability of Russia
The strategic file looks at the political stability and future of the Russian regime in the context of the war in Ukraine. It examines three possible scenarios of the development of the situation, arguing that the most likely variant is the consolidation of Putin’s regime.
Institut français des Relations internationales
Un an de guerre en Ukraine: où en sont les Russes?
The paper notes that the Russian population, fed by Kremlin propaganda for years, overwhelmingly approves of the war in Ukraine. Critical or dissenting voices exist, but they are all the less publicly expressed as the challenge is punishable by heavy penalties. Faced with the stiffening of the regime, many opponents, and men hostile to the mobilization left Russia. They are considered traitors in their country but are not always welcomed elsewhere.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Man vs. myth: is Russia’s Prigozhin a threat or asset to Putin?
The article offers a brief portrait of Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, his strengths and weaknesses within the Russian power structure. It warns of Prigozhin’s adaptability to new scenarios and the possibility of him becoming a danger to his current allies.
New America
Rebranding the Russian way of war
Drawing on five years of intensive research, this report is part of a series investigating the Wagner Group, Russia’s shadowy paramilitary cartel, to shed light on its deception operations and map its expansive reach.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
What the prospect of a prolonged war means for Russia, Ukraine and Belarus
One year after the massive attack on Ukraine, the Kremlin is sticking to its maximum goals, a negotiated settlement is not in sight. How a prolonged war can affect Russia, Ukraine and Belarus is analysed in this paper.
Atlantic Council
Europe’s last empire: Putin’s Ukraine war exposes Russia’s imperial identity
According to the report, Vladimir Putin insists Russians and Ukrainians are “one people” but his brutal invasion of Ukraine has revealed a remarkable lack of “brotherly” Russian empathy for Ukrainians. This apparent lack of empathy for the victims of Russian imperial aggression is nothing new. Many Russians displayed similar attitudes toward the two Chechen wars of the early post-Soviet era and the 2008 invasion of Georgia.
Chatham House
Seven ways Russia’s war on Ukraine has changed the world
Experts examine the shifts in geopolitical alliances, security, energy, and supply chains and whether these changes are likely to be long-lasting.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: the Iran nuclear price tag
The author assesses the drivers behind the shifts in Iran-Russia relations and Moscow’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) policy in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Close but complicated: Iran-Russia relations in the Middle East amid the war in Ukraine
The paper examines the complex nature of relations between Moscow and Tehran in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine and discusses the implications of the Middle East.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies
The Gulf states, Israel and Turkiye: reactions to the war in Ukraine
The article assesses the geopolitical significance of the war by focusing on the perspectives of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Israel and Turkey.
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Sailing through the storm: Türkiye’s Black Sea strategy amidst the Russian-Ukrainian war
This brief explores Türkiye’s pre-war geopolitical posture, both generally and with specific reference to the Black Sea. It focuses on the Turkish response to the ongoing war in Ukraine and its evolution over time. It also examines the role Türkiye plays in the Southern Caucasus, and the implications for the EU and the West more broadly.
The Brookings Institution
Lessons from the meme war in Ukraine
This analysis explores Ukrainians’ use of memes which points to several findings that shed new light on how other countries may use memes during conflict war. Some memes are in both Ukrainian and English, suggesting they are designed to shape the attitudes of domestic and international audiences.
Chatham House
Divided US support shows time is not on Ukraine’s side
The brief claims that growing public opinion evidence and uncertainty about the future of the war suggest that continued American support for aiding Ukraine should not be assumed.