15.5.2023
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Pathways to disaster: Russia’s war against Ukraine and the risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation
The risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation due to actions in the conventional domain is a serious, and underrated, feature of the current stand-off between NATO and Russia, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The authors suggest a series of measures to avoid inadvertent escalation while stressing that caution should be taken with NATO’s nuclear and conventional posture, including the placement of conventional missiles within range of threatening Russia’s nuclear capabilities.
Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques
Guerre en Ukraine: bilans et perspectives
After more than a year of fighting in Ukraine and political negotiations to build alliances or partnerships around each of the two belligerents, the author explains that it remains difficult to pass judgment on daily events. However, he suggests that the dynamics of the architecture of the world to come are already fairly clearly drawn.
Vox Ukraine
Helping Ukraine is not only crucial for peace in Europe, but also for world peace
The author explains why helping Ukraine win against Russia is as existential for Europe and the world as it is for Ukrainians, who are fighting for their own survival and freedom.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Cyber operations in Russia’s war against Ukraine: uses, limitations and lessons learned so far
One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, assumptions about the utility of cyber operations during wartime are analysed critically in this piece.
CEDOS
Nine months of full scale war in Ukraine: thoughts, feelings, actions
The team of researchers presents an exploratory study on the experience of living in Ukraine during the war.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Wygrać wojnę z Rosją. O kontrstrategii Zachodu wobec Moskwy (To win the war with Russia: about the West’s counterstrategy)
The article proposes a range of political, economic and security actions which the Western countries should undertake or continue in the framework of their counterstrategy towards Russia.
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
Walking on fire: demining in Ukraine
About 30% of Ukraine’s territory (174 000 sq.km) has been exposed to intense combat operations. This area requires survey and clearance from the vast amounts of explosive ordnance left by the invaders. Ukraine is consequently the largest mined territory in the world surpassing such former frontrunners as Afghanistan and Syria. The report provides an overview of the current situation and presents policy and action recommendations.
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
What is the potential for European investments in advanced conventional weapons that could incentivise Russia back to the negotiating table? This brief explores the potential of competitive approaches to arms control.
Council on Foreign Relations
Ukraine’s counteroffensive: will it retake Crimea?
Ukraine remains intent on wresting Crimea back from Russia, but doing so would be difficult, and the peninsula could become a bargaining chip in future diplomatic talks. The brief looks at questions such as whether retaking Crimea is a plausible military goal for Ukraine’s armed forces.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Will Russia control the skies over Ukraine?
The authors analyse the leaked documents from the US Department of Defense that indicate that Ukraine’s air defence is critically low on missiles. While immediate Russian air dominance is unlikely, Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure remain vulnerable.
United States Institute of Peace
Amid war, Ukraine aims to protect the rights of a brutal foe
This publication comments UN human rights reports and news accounts that illuminate a deepening contrast between the two nations’ adherence to humanitarian conduct amid war, notably in their treatment of prisoners.
Centre for European Policy Studies-Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies
Ukraine’s alarming demographics
The report deals with the losses of human capital through emigration on top of war casualties in Ukraine. According to new data, around 30 to 40 % of children and of prime age women having left the country. Over four million of them have been welcomed by the EU through the activation of the temporary protection directive. The report notes that post-war refugee return will be an obvious priority but notes that how this should be managed and dove-tailed with the end to temporary protection is highly uncertain.
GLOBSEC Policy Institute
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced more than 12 million people to flee their homes, with Ukrainians applying for a temporary protection in the EU primarily consisting of women, children, and the elderly. This report seeks to map out policies targeted towards assisting Ukrainian women refugees and explore the different actors and processes involved in organizing and coordinating such programs.
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Rebuilding Ukraine: what the international community now needs to consider
The authors provide an overview of likely reconstruction and recovery needs for post-war Ukraine. They argue that the recovery process will only have a chance of achieving lasting success if it is inclusive, flexible and supported jointly by Ukrainians and international partners.
Vox Ukraine
Rebuilding Ukraine’s healthcare sector: proposals for the next 10 years
The authors put forward proposals for rebuilding Ukraine’s healthcare sector, including changes to the financing, delivery and governance arrangements of the existing system.
Vox Ukraine
Ukraine’s agriculture and farmland market: the impact of war
This article looks into the recent trends in Ukraine’s farmland market and the measures the Ukrainian government took to support the agricultural sector during the war.
Bruegel
Sanctions against Russia will worsen its already poor economic prospects
The brief analyses how sanctions imposed on Russia by the USA, the EU and other countries that are against Russia’s war on Ukraine have started damaging its economy and will erode it further in the long term. It notes that although Russia is the world’s ninth-largest economy and a critical supplier of energy and other raw materials, over the medium-term, it will continue to suffer from weak potential growth.
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Economic sanctions against Russia: how effective? How durable?
The policy brief analyses the functioning of sanctions imposed by Western democracies against Russia, the extent of their circumvention and the role of G7 countries in ensuring the effectiveness and durability of the policy.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
As opposed to other states, Georgia chose not to introduce individual sanctions against the Russian Federation for economic reasons. This current study draws on the available statistical data to reveal whether Georgia’s trade with Russian Federation is indeed being utilized as a channel to avoid the international sanctions.
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Insurance as a critical enabler for investing in Ukraine
This analysis emphasizes the need for substantial investment in Ukraine to rebuild its economy following Russia’s devastating invasion. The author asserts that private sector participation is crucial but hindered by uncertainty and risk. Policy reforms, public-private partnerships, and early risk assumption by donors can attract private investments.
Vox Ukraine
Towards an acceptable accounting of Ukraine’s post-war environmental damages
The Russian war has caused enormous environmental damage to Ukraine. How to estimate this damage in order to calculate the cost of recovery and reparations for the victims? This article discusses methods for damage estimation routinely used by western nations.
Centre for Eastern Studies
The article presents the characteristics of Ukraine’s agri-food exports, the consequences of their increase for Central European states as well as the measures to counteract its negative effects.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Keeping the lights on: the EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This policy brief aims to identify which of the EU’s energy partners are not only ‘friends in need’ but also which are, or could become, ‘friends indeed’ – countries that are pressing forward with the green transformation by shifting away from the extraction, use, and sale of fossil fuels. The paper finds that Norway and the US are leading in acting as both principal friends in need and friends indeed, being able both to increase fossil fuel supplies in the short term but having already taken steps to develop domestic clean energy, some of which may be exportable.
Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)
Dostawy broni – konieczność dla Ukrainy, wyzwanie dla Zachodu (Arms supply: a necessity for Ukraine, a challenge for the West)
The article argues that the condition for a Ukrainian victory is not so much to maintain, but to significantly increase military support. In an annex, it offers a detailed overview of military equipment supplies by countries and by categories.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public
The paper starts with an assessment of the state of European sentiment over a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It then examines the difficulties the EU and its member states have experienced in responding to three key dilemmas: how to handle Russian disinformation, Russian culture, and Russian people. It ends with recommendations on how European countries can address these challenges without compromising their values.
Notre Europe – Institut Jacques Delors
Les « valeurs européennes » à l’épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine
Although a majority of Europeans agree that through its action in the face of the war in Ukraine, the EU is defending “European values”, this paper notes that confusion persists about what this term “values” actually means and recommends that it should be clarified. This requirement of “political homogeneity” is an essential condition for guaranteeing the Union a lasting capacity to face external geopolitical challenges.
Brussels School of Governance
In every crisis an opportunity? European Union integration in defence and the war on Ukraine
This article analyses the state of EU integration in defence since the war on Ukraine. In particular, the article probes how supranational and intergovernmental institutions have reacted to the war and how domestic preferences have fed into recent EU defence efforts. In doing so, the article provides a preliminary assessment of the state of EU integration in defence since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel – Institute for European Studies
Order: the financing of alliances and Western power
Russia’s war on Ukraine and the rise of China are raising serious questions about order in international politics. If the West is to have a fighting chance at maintaining its military supremacy and upholding global order, it needs to answer some fundamental questions about the US-led alliance system and what is expected of allies. This brief looks at burden-sharing in NATO and the relations between the US and its European counterparts.
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Bez powrotu? Transformacja ładu międzynarodowego po inwazji Rosji na Ukrainę
(No return? Transformation of the international order after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine)
The report looks at the scope of the global impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It explains how the war changed NATO and the EU, transformed thinking about the security architecture and the EU energy sector, confirmed Russia’s turn away from the West and sealed the changes in China’s and the Global South’s policy.
Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada
La economía española en el primer año de la guerra de Ucrania
This analysis examines the factors contributing to economic stabilization in Spain after the war and the Covid-19 crisis. It considers changes in relative prices, monetary and fiscal stimuli, disruptions in global production, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on commodity costs.
Bruegel
What really influences United Nations voting on Ukraine?
In March 2023, one year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UN General Assembly approved a nonbinding resolution calling for Russia to end hostilities and withdraw its forces. Among its 193 members, 141 voted for the resolution, exceeding the two-thirds threshold needed for it to pass. The brief comments on the remaining 45 which either abstained (32 members, including China, India, Iran and South Africa), or were absent (13). It explains that despite the overwhelming vote in favour, those 52 votes have attracted considerable attention, as 45 out of 52 are among the world’s poorest and least industrialised countries, labelled as the ‘Global South’.
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of foodstuffs and fertilizers. Consequently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to fears of an impending food crisis, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. This paper looks back at the spring of 2022 and the reasons why a food crisis seemed imminent. It then examines the mitigating measures taken in the form of EU solidarity lanes and the Black Sea grain initiative. Finally, it also assesses all of this in the light of export and price trends.
Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a broad spectrum of previously publicly available statistics on economic indicators has been removed from the public eye. This reduced transparency affects any analysis of the state of the Russian economy and assessments of the effects of sanctions and is part of a larger disinformation campaign integral to Russia’s war on Ukraine. This brief provides a short overview of the main indicators on economic activity that have been masked in various forms by Russia’s data producing institutions.
Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen – Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)
East of Eden: will Tehran find salvation in ‘looking eastwards’?
The authors examine Iran’s foreign relations, in the context of the Ukraine war, with regard to the transitional state the country has entered into since the eruption of the 2022/2023 protests.
Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos
La guerra en Ucrania y la crisis alimentaria: su impacto en el Sahel
This analysis highlights a direct link between the Ukrainian conflict and the ongoing food crisis in the Sahel region. The Sahel’s dependence on agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia connects the two seemingly distant events.
Barcelona Centre for International Affairs
Global South does not buy western stance on Ukraine
The brief suggests that the conflict in Ukraine, viewed from the United States and Europe, requires a unique response but the global South does not fully back Western reactions to the invasion and questions the credibility of the rules-based international order.
European Council on Foreign Relations
Steppe change: how Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan
This analysis notes that Kazakhstan has consistently distanced itself from Russia’s aggression and diversified its relationships with various countries, while preserving its bilateral relationship with Moscow. Having shown interest in engaging more with Kazakhstan, the EU could help the country to overcome this critical juncture by encouraging and supporting its genuine domestic transformation.
Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) – Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Russians in the south Caucasus: political attitudes and the war in Ukraine
This report focuses on the situation of Russians in Armenia and Georgia. Both countries were particularly attractive to those living in the Western part of Russia, as they are geographically proximate and can be entered without a visa. Armenia does not even require an international passport for entry, and regular flights from Russia make the country accessible. Georgia shares a land border with Russia, allowing migrants to bring their vehicles and at least some of their belongings with them. Moreover, Russians can stay in both countries de facto indefinitely.