Fri. Feb 14th, 2025

Brussels, 20 January 2025

Speech by Commissioner Kubilius at the meeting of the North Atlantic Council, 20 January 2025:

Your excellencies,

Secretary general, dear Mark,

I was very much impressed by your speech one month ago, at Carnegie Europe. A historic speech. With the right sense of urgency. The right message for these dangerous times.

You said: “We need to turbo charge our defence production and defence spending”.

I could not agree more. I very similarly speak about the need for a “Big Bang” approach to overhaul European defence. And you rightly pointed out recently – during your Remarks to the Security and Defence subcommittee in the European Parliament – the urgent need to increase our defence spending.

You said: “If we don’t do that we are safe now, but not in four or five years. So, if you don’t do it, get your Russian language courses or go to New Zealand, or decide now to spend more”. A powerful message, which explains everything.

When I was a schoolboy, I was forced by the soviets to learn the Russian language. I don’t want that experience for my grandkids. And I want to continue living in Europe, despite the attractions of the beautiful country of New Zealand.

There is no need to explain anything more about the threats we are facing and how we need to react: you explained everything in a very effective way.

Yes, we need to increase our overall defence readiness. A stronger European defence is key. A stronger EU defence industry will make NATO defence stronger.

Before going into more concrete details, related to our plans, I want to spend a few minutes to explain my basic thinking on European defence.

Dear Mark, I know that at university you studied history. Despite the fact, that I studied physics, I too find my inspiration in the past.

Over Christmas I read the memoirs – of someone who also lived in dangerous times: Jean Monnet. We all know Jean Monnet as one of the founding fathers of the European Union. But Jean Monnet was also one of the founding fathers of victory in the Second World War. It was Jean Monnet who first described the United States as the “Arsenal of Democracy”.

Jean Monnet worked with Winston Churchill and President Roosevelt. He helped the Roosevelt administration to prepare the so called “Victory Plan”, which was crucial for the victory of the allies.

The goal of the Plan: all out production to achieve victory. And as I read Monnet’s memoirs, a lot sounded familiar:

  • The lacking sense of urgency at the very beginning
  • People in the USA treating the war as a new normal.
  • The very low reserves of manpower, of weapons.
  • The low levels of productive capacity.
  • The unease with industry about making big investments without clear orders.
  • The unease with the military to say what they need. Because everything is secret.

Also familiar: the concerns about budgets. But also: a clear understanding what needs to be done, shared by Monnet and expressed by Roosevelt.

Roosevelt said: “There is absolutely no doubt in the mind of a very overwhelming number of Americans that the best immediate defence of the United States is the success of Great Britain defending itself.”

The same is very much needed now, when we are discussing our support to Ukraine.

Monnet also understood how important it was to show the real truth about the gap in the US readiness:

In his memoirs, he said: “The first step was to calculate the deficit./…/ We presented it in the starkest terms, knowing that the American Administration needed a shock and that Roosevelt was only waiting to be spurred by big demands”.

And finally, – when the nation is facing existential threat, money cannot become an obstacle for defence.

Monnet was delighted to hear Roosevelt condemn out of hand taboos that Monnet had been attacking for years. To quote Roosevelt : “In all history, no major war has been lost through lack of money…”

We too now face a potential existential challenge. And we too need our “Victory Plan”. Together with Ukraine. We should have no doubt about Russia’s war aims.

If you listen to Putin and his propagandists, war aims go well beyond Ukraine. And include annexation and occupation of parts of Europe. And domination of the rest.

And we are facing not only an aggressive Russia. North Korea, Iran are in the same Axis of Aggressive Authoritarians. China is not far away.

We are already under threat. Disinformation. Weaponisation of migrants. Repeated attacks on cables in the Baltic. Sabotage. Arson. Espionage. Murder. Attacks are increasing in intensity and severity.

Attacks are increasingly moving westward. If we do not act, these hybrid attacks could soon be followed by military attacks.

Dear Mark, as you have convincingly stated – in five short years, Russia will have the military means for a confrontation with NATO. We can still deter Russian aggression in Europe.

First, by supporting Ukraine. And by supporting the integration of EU and Ukrainian defence industries. Defending Ukraine means defending Europe. Every missile, every drone shot down by Ukraine – is one that will not threaten Europe, one that will not threaten NATO. Every day Ukraine stands fast, is a day of delay. A day Putin cannot turn his full might against us. Every day Ukraine fights on, is a day the European Union and NATO can grow stronger. We can prevent Russian aggression if we are strong.

Now we are not strong enough. The gaps in defence capability are very, very serious. The shortfalls in military material, if we compare with the Russian war economy, are colossal. It is for NATO to make military plans. It is for NATO and Member States to assess military needs and set targets. And 23 of them do so here at NATO. And the European Union will support. We can bring our added value. By mobilising our budget and industrial and regulatory clout.

We are now preparing a White Paper on the Future of European Defence. We want the EU to help our Member States to enhance their defence readiness. This means helping members of the EU to fulfil NATO capability targets.

Not in twenty years’ time as planned, in 2044. But in the next five years, by 2030. And that’s why I thank you for releasing NATO standards to the EU institutions.

I thank all of you. Thank you for the trust. I know for you this was an unprecedented step. Thank you for the commitment, to our common cause. But this is just a beginning.

I count on much more intense cooperation with NATO. We need to accelerate our cooperation. And find pragmatic ways to increase information sharing. Including the aggregated numbers of NATO capability targets. In order for us to have an industrial “Victory Plan”. Only this will help us to better support NATO and support your mission.

I want a “big bang” approach in defence production and acquisition. Because we can no longer afford to go forward in very small, incremental steps. We need European scale, European coordination and European funding. We need joint investment in defence. We need joint procurement for aggregated European demand. We need more industrial cooperation – starting with Research and Development. We need more production capacity right here in Europe to fill capability gaps.

Member States will remain in charge of deciding which capabilities they develop and acquire. What the EU will do is help them develop and acquire such capabilities faster, cheaper and more together.

In closing, let me return to Jean Monnet. There are also big differences between Jean Monnet, and ourselves. When Jean Monnet helped to mobilise United States industry for victory, war had already broken out. His own country had already been overrun. Europe had been overrun.

Unlike Monnet, we still have some time to prevent a major conflict. And another big difference: We have the European Union. We have NATO.

The European Union is the biggest single market in the world. And NATO is the largest defensive military alliance in the world. We want to make the EU – NATO partnership even stronger. The European Union can also become an arsenal for democracy. The EU economy is many times larger than the Russian economy. Together we can outspend and outproduce and outgun Russia. This way, we can deter aggression and prevent war.

Thank you, and I look forward to the discussion.

Source – EU Commission

 

Forward to your friends