In his keynote speech at the EU Industry Days in Poland, EU Commissioner Andrius Kubilius outlined an urgent and strategic vision for strengthening Europe’s defence through industrial revitalisation, greater political will, and tighter integration with Ukraine. He began by warning that Europe faces a “perfect storm” in its security environment: Russia’s growing aggression, a protracted war in Ukraine, and the anticipated reduction of U.S. military presence in Europe.
Kubilius emphasised that the defence industry is not just another economic sector but the critical backbone of European security. Drawing parallels with World War II, he argued that industrial capacity won wars then, and will again be decisive in deterring today’s threats. Echoing the Draghi report, he also linked defence and space industries to Europe’s overall competitiveness.
Turning to lessons from Ukraine, he highlighted the transformative role of drones in modern warfare, noting that 80% of targets are now destroyed by unmanned systems. With both Ukraine and Russia expected to deploy 4 million drones this year, Kubilius warned that Europe must radically rethink its military doctrine, procurement systems, and innovation cycles to keep pace.
The Commissioner outlined the EU’s response on three fronts: demand, supply, and financing. He cited efforts to align EU defence needs with NATO targets, create flagship projects like the Eastern Border Shield, and simplify industrial processes through upcoming legislative initiatives. On the financial side, he pointed to the €800 billion Rearm Europe programme, SAFE loans, and the repurposing of unspent cohesion and recovery funds.
Kubilius also underscored the need for industrial consolidation and standardisation, calling on Member States to spend more and invest jointly. He praised the Netherlands for proactively engaging with Ukrainian defence innovators and proposed that Ukraine’s battle-tested military and innovation-driven industry be fully integrated into Europe’s defence architecture. He concluded with a call for unity—including closer ties with the UK—and lauded the host city of Rzeszów as a symbol of European solidarity and resilience.
E-Summary by ChatGPT, based on the speech below, prompted by Insight EU
Keynote speech by Commissioner Kubilius at EU Industry Days (in Rzeszow, Poland)
“Check against delivery”
Dear participants,
It is a pleasure to see all of you.
With many of you, especially from the defence and space industries, we have had a very intensive 6 months of conversations. This is how it will go also in future, during the entire mandate of this Commission: listening and deciding. Because what we decided up until now is only the beginning.
We will need to do much more.
Why? Because Putin’s plans for aggression against us, EU and NATO Member States, can be deterred only by strength on our side, and on the side of Ukraine.
And Putin is not planning to stop.
And that is why our defence industry is so important. Because defence industry is not just another industry, it’s also the most important resource for our defence.
Let’s remember, that Victory in World War Two was not only a victory of armies, but above all a victory of factories.
Because the allies first won the production war, and then they also won the real war.
In the same way we now depend on industry to deter aggression and prevent war.
From another side, let’s not forget the Draghi Report on Competitiveness. It states very clearly: In many countries, successful defence and space industries are the most important factors for highly competitive economies.
And that is why investment into defence and space industries are also very important – both for the defence and for the competitiveness of Europe.
As you know, much bigger European and national investments into defence are starting to come. So, those companies, which still are not engaged in the defence and space business, should think about that.
At the moment, in order for us to better understand what is in front of us in defence, what is in front of our defence industry, I want to stress, that in my opinion we are facing a “perfect storm” in our security situation, which looks like this:
- War in Ukraine continuing – without clear perspectives of peace. Putin does not want peace. And diplomacy will not help. Only – strength.
- Russian aggressiveness is increasing. even if peace would be concluded in Ukraine, Putin will continue to mobilise Russia’s war economy. And will plan his next aggression. This time – against the EU.
- The American forthcoming withdrawal from Europe is a new reality. This does not mean American withdrawal from NATO.
Such a “perfect storm” means a deep defence crisis on the European continent.
But as is often said – never waste a good crisis to take bold decisions and reforms.
That is what the “Defence White Paper” and “Rearm EU” program are about: how to make bold decisions and reforms in defence.
In addition to the picture of a “perfect storm”, we need also to see clear lessons from the war in Ukraine.
First, we need to see, that now on the European continent there are just two battle tested armies, with the ability to use millions of drones: Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine – for its own defence and the defence of Europe. Russia – in preparation for its next aggression.
In case of Russia’s aggression we shall face a battle tested Russian army, much stronger than it was in 2022.
And we shall face a Russian war economy, which is now producing 4 times more ammunition than all NATO countries are able to produce together.
Second, the biggest change in warfare is clear: today 80% of targets in Ukraine are destroyed by drones. There’s a 15 km “death valley” on both sides of the front line where nothing can move. The “valley” is created by drones. Ukrainian drones and Russian drones. A traditional tank on average survives 6 minutes in this “death valley”. Every 2 months there is a need for radical innovation of the drones in operation – as the Russians learn to jam or intercept the previous models.
Ukraine during this year will produce and will use 4 million drones. Russia – a similar amount.
As announced on Monday by the UK government in their Strategic Defence Review, Britain learned the lessons from Ukraine and is going to change its warfare doctrine towards the so called “20-40-40” doctrine:
20 percent of targets to be hit by heavy conventional weapons, 40% – by light kamikaze drones, another 40% – by heavy drones and missiles. So, that is the same as in Ukraine – 80% hits by drones.
Are we going, and when we are going to follow the Ukrainians and the British?
With those lessons in mind, our implementation actions are focused on the issues of demand, of supply and on financial resources.
- First of all we want to have a picture of EU aggregated demand which will be based on NATO capability targets.
- As publicly announced by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Admiral Pierre Vandier, those capability targets will be on average 30% larger than previous targets. While there is also already a 30% deficit in implementation of those previous goals.
- So at the moment in terms of capabilities we have only around of 50% of what we need to have according to NATO defence plans.
- And second, – we need to start to prepare to replace US capabilities in Europe.
- Such a task will require substantial additional investments.
- The IISS and Bruegel think-tanks have estimated the cost to replace US resources: An additional 300 000 military personnel and 1 trln USD;
- The third issue on the demand side – we need to develop European flagship projects in 7 strategic domains, including in space and Eastern Border Defence Shield.
On the supply side:
- Joint Task Force for Defence Readiness started to work to map out our industrial output plan and security of supply chains issues;
- On June 17th the Commission will propose an ambitious defence simplification omnibus, – to make sure industries are able to supply without red tape.
- And in the Autumn we will present a Roadmap on modernization of defence (with special attention to AI and quantum).
- This roadmap will also include lessons from the industrial and innovative success of Ukraine: Not only how to bring disruptive technologies into defence, but also how to bring disruptive methods into the organization of development, of production and of procurement of new weapons.
- Also, we hope that soon we shall have final agreement on EDIP, with its new instruments to support joint development and joint procurement;
And finally, on financial resources:
- Implementation of our “Rearm Europe” program with an additional 800 billion euros for defence during the next 4 years is going full speed ahead:
- Regulation on SAFE loans was approved last week. They can be used together with Ukraine (thanks to very successful Polish presidency).
- This week – decision to approve the request of 15 Member States to use the National escape clause;
- Also possibility to use unspent Cohesion funds and Recovery and Resilience (RRF) funds for the needs of defence was created.
So, we are moving ahead, but much more needs to be done.
First of all, there is an urgent need of consolidation, specialization and standardization of industry and its products. I know that you are moving into that direction.
And second, – there is an urgent need for strong political will by national governments to spend more on defence, to spend in joint procurement and to spend European.
Not because of protectionism, but because industry is an important defence resource.
Industries should work together with national governments in order to overcome fragmentation.
And a lot of other things are needed.
And most important is to support Ukraine. And to learn from Ukraine. Not only how to fight, but also how to create an innovative defence industry.
Today Europe is defended by Ukraine. The Defence line of Ukraine is the defence line of Europe.
It is difficult to understand, why from our military assistance to the defence of Ukraine annually does not reach 0.1% of our GDP.
I hope that Member States will use SAFE loans to achieve a breakthrough in our support to Ukraine.
We can learn a lot from Ukraine’s successes in defending itself. Not only about how to invent modern warfare, but also how to build a modern defense industry.
When I visited Kyiv at the beginning of May, I heard repeatedly that the Dutch defence industry is the most active in engaging with Ukrainian defence start-ups and mid-caps. It looks like that the Dutch, as always, are very prudent. Because in Europe the future in defence and in defence industry issues – is Ukraine. I am absolutely sure that other Europeans will be inspired by the Dutch example.
And in addition – while Americans are preparing to move out from Europe and Russians are growing stronger, Ukraine with its battle tested army and extremely innovative defence industry will be the most important part of the new European security architecture.
It also means that we need Ukraine’s integration into the European Union as much as Ukraine needs this integration. Maybe, even, more. Because this is how we can strengthen our defence. For deterrence and for peace.
The same is true for our relationship with the United Kingdom. Withdrawal of the United States should push Europeans towards more unity. And of course, the British have remarkable skills on the battlefield and in defence innovation. Which would bring a lot of additional strength to the European Defence Union.
And finally: It’s a great honour for me to speak in this city. The city of Rzeszow. Called by President Zelensky the “City of Saviours”.
It’s an inspiration for all of us!
Source – EU Commission