EU Commissioner Andrius Kubilius calls for “defence readiness era”

Dear participants,

It’s a pleasure to see all of you.

With a lot of you, especially from defence and space industries and from different institutions, we have had a very intensive 6 months of conversations: we have been discussing and have been listening to each other.

Then we took decisions and now we are pushing for implementation.

This is how it will go also in the future, through the entire mandate of this Commission: listening and deciding. Because what we decided until now is only the beginning. We will need to do much more.

Why? Because despite the fact, that we are not at war, we live in times of war.

And because Putin’s plans of aggression against us, EU and NATO Member States, can be deterred only by strength on our side, and on the side of Ukraine. And Putin is not planning to stop.And the perspective of war makes everything different. 

So we need to put aside our peacetime glasses. 

That’s why we now urgently need to get into shape. Get our peace time European Union “body” ready for defence, and to be fighting fit.

Ready in all the different domains: 

• in capability targets and warfare doctrines,
• in industrial capabilities to ramp up production
• and in a readiness of public finances to pay for what is needed;
• In EU and national rulebooks, which should not be red tape or bureaucratic obstacles to ramping-up our defence readiness,
• And there should not be obstacles to strengthening cooperation between the EU and NATO.

Because that’s what these current times demand.

As Mark Rutte famously said: “We are not at war. But we are certainly not at peace, either”.

We need to understand that – between peace times and war times, there is a special defence readiness time.  A time when intelligence services are warning, that aggression is possible, that war is possible.A time when things need to start to move in a different speed and direction than they were moving in peace time. 

Because this is the only way how we can deter aggression.

A few weeks ago, in Aachen, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made a very strong and convincing statement.That in these kinds of times we have two most important priorities: Pax Europaea and an Independent Europe.Her message was very clear: If we want Peace in Europe (Pax Europaea) we need to be ready to be independent.As the Commission President put it: “We cannot allow ourselves to be thrown off course by the seismic changes that we are facing.”

Pax Europaea (Peace in Europe) is our strategic responsibility.Pax Europaea is impossible without our independent defence readiness. We are living in times that demand defence readiness. And that is why in these defence readiness times our defence industry and space industry, which are very much related with defence and security, are so important. Because defence industry is not just another industry, it’s also the most important resource for our defence.

Let’s remember, that Victory in World War Two was not only a victory of armies, but above all a victory of factories.Because the allies first won the production war, and then they also won the real war. In the same way we now depend on industry to deter aggression and prevent war.

From another side, let’s not forget the Draghi Report on Competitiveness.It states very clearly – successful defence and space industries are the most important factors for high competitiveness of the economies of different countries.  That is why the strength of our defence and space industries are so important.And that is why investment into defence and space industries is also very important – both for the defence and for competitiveness of Europe.

As you know, much bigger European and national investments into defence are starting to come. So, those companies, which still are not engaged in defence and space business, should think about that.

On “Perfect Storm”

At the moment, in order for us to better understand what is in front of us in our readiness for defence, what is in front of our defence industry, we need to see a broader picture.

I want to stress, that in my opinion we are facing a “perfect storm” in our security and defence readiness situation, which looks like this:

• War in Ukraine is continuing – without clear perspectives of peace. Putin does not want peace. And diplomacy will not help. Only – strength.
• Russian aggressiveness is increasing. Even if peace would be concluded in Ukraine, Putin will continue to mobilise Russia’s war economy.
• And will plan his next aggression, as our intelligence services are warning us. This time – against the EU.
• The forthcoming American withdrawal from Europe is a new reality. This does not mean American withdrawal from NATO.
• Our readiness for defence is not sufficient. It demands an urgent ramp-up and a longer termstrategy how to replace American capabilities in Europe.

Such a “perfect storm” means a deep defence crisis on the European continent. But as is often said – never waste a good crisis to take bold decisions and reforms. That is what the “Defence White Paper” and “Rearm EU” program are about: how to make bold decisions and reforms in defence. In addition to the picture of a “perfect storm”, we need also to see clear lessons from the war in Ukraine.

On lessons from Ukraine

First, now on the European continent there are two battle tested armies, with the ability to use millions of drones: Russia and Ukraine.Ukraine – for its own defence and the defence of Europe. Russia – in preparation for its next aggression. 

In case of Russia’s aggression we shall face a battle tested Russian army, much stronger, than it was in 2022.And we shall face a Russian war economy, which is now producing 4 times more ammunition than all NATO countries are able to do.Second, the biggest change in warfare is clear: today 80% of targets in Ukraine are destroyed by drones.There’s a 15 km “death valley” on both sides of front line where nothing can move.The “valley” is created by drones. Ukrainian drones and Russian drones.A traditional tank on average survives 6 minutes in this “death valley”.Every 2 months there is a need for radical innovation of the drones in operation – as the Russians learn to jam or intercept the previous models. 

Ukraine during this year will produce and will use 4 million drones. Russia – a similar amount.

As announced Monday last week by the UK government in their Strategic Defence Review, Britain learned the lessons from Ukraine and are going to change their warfare doctrine towards the so called “20-40-40” doctrine:20 percent of targets to be hit by heavy conventional weapons, 40% – by light kamikaze drones, another 40% – by heavy drones and missiles. So, that is the same as in Ukraine – 80% hits by drones. 

Are we going and when we are going to follow the Ukrainians and the British? Our actions in implementing the White Paper very much depend on an answer to this question:  What kind of war do we need to be ready to fight and to be ready to defend ourselves?

Implementation of defence readiness: material and institutional

Implementation of our defence readiness strategy starts from “material” issues. At the moment we are concentrating on the issues of demand, of supply and of financial resources.

But looking at the longer term future, it will not be enough to concentrate only on the material side of defence:  just how to spend more on defence and how to produce more weapons.

Broader issues will need to be discussed: How to organize our defence in Europe institutionally or how to diminish the permanent threats to our security.

But first of all, let’s look into what we are doing and what is needed to be done on the “material” side of our defence: demand, supply and financial resources:

“Material” defence readiness

Aggregated demand

• First of all, the picture of aggregated demand will be constructed according to NATO capability targets, which have been  reviewed by NATO and Member States. This picture will allow industries, financial institutions and governments to have a better visibility of what is needed for defence readiness and to plan production expansion. As was publicly announced by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation Admiral Pierre Vandier, those capability targets will be on average 30% bigger than previous targets, and also there is a 30% deficit in implementation of those previous goals. So at the moment in terms of capabilities we have only around of 50% of what we need to have according to NATO defence plans.
• And second: preparedness to replace US capabilities in Europe. Such a task will require substantial additional investments. IISS and Bruegel think-tanks estimate that the cost to replace US resources are an additional 300,000 military personnel and 1 trln USD; We need to avoid an angry divorce, and go forward with a rational agreement with our transatlantic partners on implementation of progressive division of responsibilities; implementation of that agreement will take time;
• The third issue on the demand side – we need to develop European flagship projects in 7 strategic domains, among which are the Air Defence Shield, so called “strategic enablers” (we heavily depend on US services, for example – on space intelligence data), the Eastern Border Defence Shield, and others;

Supply side

• First of all, it is important to note that we created the Joint Task Force for Defence Readiness. All EU institutions are working together to map out the industrial output plan and security of supply chains issues;
• On June 17th in the Commission we shall adopt  an ambitious defence simplification omnibus. So industries can be able to supply. It cannot be so, that defence industry needs to wait 5 years to have a permit to build a new factory. I will say few more words about Simplification just in a moment.
• And in the autumn we shall have a Roadmap on modernization of defence (with special attention to AI and quantum).
• It will include also lessons from industrial and innovative success of Ukraine –
• not only how to bring disruptive technologies into defence, but also how to bring disruptive methods into organization of development, production and procurement of new weapons.
• We are working with European start-ups from the New Defence industry and we are discussing with them how to create “red carpet” conditions for them, what was very successfully done in Ukraine. We can learn a lot from Ukraine about modernization of defence industry, and I will say a few words about that a little bit later.
• Also, we hope that soon we shall have a final agreement on EDIP, with its new instruments to support joint development and joint procurement;

Space for Defence and Defence of Space

When we are discussing “material” readiness for defence, we need to pay special attention to our capabilities in space. Both – space for defence and defence of space capabilities.

Today defence readiness is impossible without space readiness. We need possibilities,

• to have geointelligence data from space with all-weather imaging capabilities to revisit a precise spot on the earth every 30 minutes;
• to have secure satellite communications better than Starlink;
• to have secure high-precision navigation positioning and timing services, which are able to withstand jamming and spoofing

Those are capabilities crucial for the defence readiness in modern warfare.And not only for defence readiness, since a lot of security in our civilian life depends on space services, for example: civilian aviation. 

Some of those space services crucial for defence readiness we have on a national level in a limited quantity and quality.

Some data can be provided by commercial space services, but it is obvious that, for our resilience, we need to augment existing systems or develop new systems which will provide us with the most advanced space capabilities on the EU level.

And we can produce those space capabilities, as we did when, together with European Space Agency, we created the world leading Galileo and Copernicus systems.

Now together with ESA we are implementing the new IRIS2 system for secure satellite communication, which will be fully operational in 2030.

But starting from this summer we shall have as a precursor the GOVSATCOM system, were we will pool and share existing national assets in satellite communication.

Together with ESA we are working towards:

• a new positioning navigation and timing system in the Low Earth Orbit – the LEO PNT. It will add robustness to Galileo, notably for security-sensitive applications enabled through the Public Regulated Service (PRS).
• a new Earth Observation Governmental System.

This is crucial for our capability to have very high resolution geointelligence data with a very high revisit. At times, as high as 30 minutes. Instead of only once a day, which is the capability we have today.

All new systems need to come fast. We need to rethink our traditional space development methodology and adjust to the needs of our historical times. Building on our long heritage and existing capacities. In full coordination with our member states.

We are looking how to bring readiness not only into “space for defence”, but also into “defence of space”, – into defence of our space assets, which are facing more and more threats directly in the satellite environment.

Defence readiness in space demands that we:

• regain our autonomous space transportation capabilities,
• to be able to permanently service our satellite systems directly in orbit,
• And also to be able to react and to defend our satellite systems from any physical threats in space.

This in turn means that we need to:

• strengthen our space situational awareness building on more than ten years of European cooperation towards EU Space Surveillance and Tracking services.
• work towards radio frequence interference monitoring

Space is a new frontier. Materially and politically we need to be in Space. Not least for our defence readiness and for our security.

Simplification Omnibus

As I said before – next week we shall present the Defence Simplification Ominbus. It is our most important job to do at this initial stage of implementation. Because without this simplification, nothing else in defence readiness will be possible to achieve.

Defence Readiness will not be ramped up by the picture of aggregated demand or by all the efforts to ramp up financial resources, if traditional “red tape”, which maybe is fit for peacetime, will kill industrial efforts to ramp-up production.

We need to remember, – when the laws, which today create the conditions for industries to operate, were made, war was for most in Europe unthinkable.

We no longer have this luxury. War is no longer unthinkable. Defence can no longer be an afterthought. Putin will not wait for us, to get our paperwork in order.

To make our laws ready for defence readiness, we’ve been talking to defence industry. Including many of you here today.

President Ursula von der Leyen and I have had dialogues with you. Member States and industry have sent about 200 responses to our public consultation. Many Member States have sent in contributions, and 11 Member States got together to send me a joint letter.

And every time the message was:red alert against red tape.Bureaucracy must not be an obstacle to our defence.Both on the EU level and national level. Companies told us about delays in getting money from the European Defence Fund: up to two years. About banks refusing to finance defence production. Because defence is “controversial”.

Next week, we will present our defence simplification omnibus. A proposal for a EU rulebook fit for defence readiness.

First, we will simplify defence-specific legislation: The directive on defence procurement. And the directive on intra-EU transfers of defence-products.

We intend to givemore flexibility to Member States in common procurements, more flexibility on framework agreements, and we intend to facilitate innovation procurement.

We also want to make access to the European Defence Fund easier.

It is very important that we also look at other EU rules that affect defence readiness. For example faster permits.And simpler reporting obligations. 

We shall also look at competition rules and sustainable finance. We will make sure to keep the balance between the original purpose and today’s needs of defence readiness.

Military mobility

Looking into the “material’ side of our readiness and also additional need for simplification, later this year we will present an initiative on military mobility.

We can’t move tanks or artillery to defend the border, if the bridges or roads are too weak to carry them, or tunnels too small. And it’s not only about physical obstacles.Tanks face paperwork at national borders and even regional borders. 

We have free movement of people – we don’t have free movement of military gear. We need a military Schengen to move troops and tanks quickly where they are needed.

Financial resources

And finally, on “material” readiness with Financial resources:

• Implementation of “Rearm Europe” program with additional 800 bln euros during next 4 years is going full speed forward:
• Regulation on 150 bln euros of attractive SAFE loans was approved 2 weeks ago. They can be used together with Ukraine.
• Last week the Commission approved the request of 15 Member States to use the National escape clause;
• National governments got a right to use unspent Cohesion funds and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds for the needs of defence.
• Change of the EIB mandate was approved, and the EIB has many more possibilities to invest into defence.

So, we are moving ahead with “material” implementation, but much more needs to be done.

Our Common tasks

First of all, there is an urgent need of more cooperation, consolidation, specialization and standardization of industry and its products. I know that you are moving into that direction.

And second, – there is an urgent need of strong political will of national governments to spend more on defence, to spend in joint development and joint procurement and to spend European.

Not because of protectionism, but because industry is an important defence resource. Industries should work together with national governments in order toovercome fragmentation.

The EU is ready to further mobilize the EU budget to support cooperation between industry and between Member States and throughout the whole life cycle of capability development.

To make sure that our Armed Forces have the necessary capabilities for the protection of Europe and a competitive industry to sustain them.

So, that was about implementation on the “material” side of defence. But a lot of other things are needed for our defence readiness. And not only on the “material” side of defence readiness.

Ukraine and our defence readiness

And most important is – to support Ukraine. And to learn from Ukraine. Not only how to fight, but also how to create an innovative defence industry.

Today Europe is defended by Ukraine. The Defence line of Ukraine is the defence line of Europe.

It is difficult to understand, why when, from one side, we are ready to invest into our defence 3.5% of our GDP or even more, from another side, our military assistance to defence of Ukraine annually is less than 0.1% of our GDP.

I hope that Member States will use SAFE loans in order to achieve a breakthrough in our support to Ukraine.

We can learn a lot from Ukraine’s successes in defending itself. Not only about how to invent modern warfare, but also how to build modern defense industry.

That is why we established the EU-Ukraine Task Force on Defence Industrial Cooperation with key tasks:

• Enhancing EU–Ukraine industrial cooperation and integration;
• Facilitating structured exchanges on production capacities and operational challenges, along with lessons learned on high-intensity warfare;
• Supporting Ukraine’s full participation in EU defence programmes for industrial reinforcement actions and common procurement.

Now it’s time to make this cooperation very practical and ‘material”:

On the proposal of the Ukrainian Government we are intensively working to establish a joint program “BRAVE EU”.

This would facilitate possibilities for European and Ukrainian defence start-up’s and midcaps to cooperate in bringing Ukrainian know-how of innovative defence technologies and methods into European defence readiness practice.

That is why I would like to tell you, that while I was  visiting Kyiv at the beginning of May, I have heard repeatedly that the Dutch defence industry is the most active in engaging with Ukrainian defence start-ups and mid-caps.

It looks like that the Dutch, as always, are very prudent. Because in Europe the future in defence and defence industry issues – is Ukraine. I am absolutely sure that other Europeans will be inspired by the Dutch example.

On new European Security Architecture

And in addition, besides the material side of our defence, we need to seriously look into institutional arrangements of our defence on the European continent.

NATO definitely will stay a backbone of our collective defence.

But while Americans are preparing to move out from Europe and Russians are growing stronger, we need to start to discuss:

• what the new European security architecture will look like,
• how the true European Defence Union with the responsibility to defend Europe independently will be created
• and how the obligation of the Treaty on European Union for a  “progressive framing of a common Union defence policy” will be realized.

And we need to understand at the very beginning of such discussions, that Ukraine with its battle tested army and extremely innovative defence industry will be the most important part of this new European security architecture.

It means also, that we need Ukraine’s integration into the European Union as much as Ukraine needs this integration. Maybe we need it even more.

Because this is how we can strengthen our defence. For deterrence and for peace.

The same is true for our relationship with the United Kingdom. Withdrawal of the United States should push Europeans towards more unity. And of course, the British have remarkable skills on the battlefield and in defence innovation. Which would bring a lot of additional strength to the European Defence Union.

Conclusions

I started by saying that the European Union is not at war, but we live in times of war.  We can still avoid war. By building up our defence readiness.By building up a defence ready defence industry.By building up a new European security architecture. And a European Defence Union. By investing into European Independence and Pax Europaea!

Together, we can deter aggression, prevent war, and preserve peace.

Source – EU Commission