Mon. Feb 17th, 2025

Brussels, 22 January 2025

ENTSOG today published its second full-scope revision of the Union-wide simulation of gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios (SoS simulation) report, as required by Regulation 2017/1938 concerning measures to safeguard the security of gas supply, and amended by Regulation (EU) 2024/1789.

The Regulation assigns ENTSOG the task to undertake, every four years, a Union-wide simulation of gas supply and infrastructure disruptions scenarios in cooperation with the Gas Coordination Group. The finalised report’s publication follows its presentation to the Gas Coordination Group on 17 December 2024.

In this report, ENTSOG has assessed the capability of the gas infrastructure to facilitate an efficient cooperation of the EU Member States in an unusual cold winter season (extreme climatic conditions) under different gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios.

The main findings of the assessment are:

  • The gas infrastructure, including projects commissioned since 2022 and projects to be commissioned over the next year, increases energy security in the EU and significantly improves possible cooperation among Member States during extreme climatic conditions and individual supply route disruption scenarios.
  • Some demand response measures (either policy-based or price-based) would be required in an unexpected combination of extreme climatic conditions and supply route disruption.
  • Satisfying demand in cold winter and maintaining a minimum 30% average Underground Gas Storage (UGS) stock level at the end of the winter season would require at least a 10% demand side response, depending on the balance between supply source availability and gas in storage.
  • Gas storage facilities and LNG terminals are essential for ensuring seasonal and short-term flexibility. Short-term high demand events can be managed through efficient withdrawals from UGS and LNG tanks assuming that demand reduction measures and adequate storage level are in place at the beginning of the cold demand event.
  • In all scenarios, efficient cooperation between EU Member States ensures that exports to non-EU countries can be maintained and supplied up to the available capacity.

ENTSOG General Director Piotr Kuś, commented:

The output from this Regulatory exercise is even more imperative since the Energy Crisis of 2022, analysing the ability of the gas infrastructure to allow for an efficient cooperation of the EU Member States to cope with an unusual cold winter season under different scenarios. The assessment, also undertaken with the Gas Coordination Group, provides a strong basis for the Competent Authorities to perform their common risk evaluations.

The development of ENTSOG’s SoS simulation report is repeated every four years, unless circumstances warrant more frequent updates (e.g., as was requested by the Gas Coordination Group in 2024). The ENTSOG Union-wide Security of Supply simulation report 2024 is available here on ENTSOG’s website.

Source – ENTSOG

 

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