Thessaloniki, 14 March 2025
The European Union faces a major demographic challenge, marked by an aging population, declining birth rates, and shifting migration patterns. By 2035, the EU labour force is expected to grow, albeit unequally across the different age cohorts, with higher annual growth expected primarily for those aged 60 and above.
This demographic trend places significant pressure on labour markets, as the ratio of young workers entering the workforce to retiring employees will decline. In several sectors facing severe shortages such as health, care, and construction, these shortages stem primarily from high replacement demand.
The gender gap in the labour force participation is forecasted to narrow, but to a limited extent, driven by a higher rate of growth in participation for females compared to males. Policies promoting upskilling and reskilling, active aging, lifelong learning, and inclusiveness can enhance greater labour force participation, particularly among underrepresented groups, including migrants and women.
Cedefop’s latest employment projections* for 2035 anticipate marginal annual employment growth (0.4%) at EU level. Variations in future employment across sectors and occupations will be largely driven by the twin (digital and green) transition, alongside demographic shifts.
Key sectoral trends
- High-tech and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) related industries — including research and development (R&D), computer programming, and architectural and engineering sectors — are expected to have among the highest employment growth.
- The green transition will drive employment declines in coal mining (projected to have the largest annual decrease until 2035) and fuel manufacturing, while electricity-related jobs are projected to increase.
Occupational trends
Similar trends are also observable at the occupational level:
- Strong employment growth is forecasted for Information and communication technology (ICT) professionals and technicians, as well as science and engineering roles, all of which require advanced digital skills.
- Health-related occupations (e.g., health professionals, personal care workers) will expand to address demographic challenges.
- The highest job openings are expected in business and administration professionals and associate professionals, teaching professionals, personal service workers, and science and engineering professionals.
- Other high-skilled occupations with high employment growth include legal, social and cultural professionals.
Detailed and granular data on labour force and employment projections by sector, occupation and country is accessible via Cedefop’s Skills Forecast online tool.
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(*): Cedefop’s skills forecast offers quantitative estimations of future trends in employment by business industry and occupation for all Member States, plus a few more countries (Iceland, North Macedonia, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey). It uses harmonised international data and a common methodological approach to offer cross-country comparisons and benchmarking, rather than replace national forecasting models. The macroeconomic context is built around the most likely scenario, using official economic and population projections. The 2025 skills forecast used data and assumptions capturing recent policies and developments such as the European Green Deal, the COVID-19 impact, changes in energy and commodity prices, and the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Source – Cedefop