Brussels, 11 May 2025
Russia and Ukraine are publicly inching toward direct peace negotiations for the first time in over a year. Both sides signal readiness – Moscow with a proposal for talks in Istanbul, and Kyiv with an unprecedented 30-day ceasefire – but their diverging conditions and deep mistrust underscore how fragile this moment remains. A flurry of diplomacy by Turkey, the US, and Europe has set the stage for May 15 talks, yet it’s a long way from tentative truce to durable peace.
Moscow’s offer – talks without preconditions
Vladimir Putin is framing Russia as ready to negotiate, even as he casts blame on Kyiv for previous breakdowns. Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly proposed direct peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15 “without any preconditions,” presenting it as a good-faith offer to resume the dialogue that collapsed in 2022. Putin’s narrative is that Russia has repeatedly offered ceasefire steps and is “serious” about ending the conflict – provided talks address the war’s “root causes” and lead to a “stable peace”.
Kyiv’s ceasefire gambit – 30 days of calm as a precondition for peace
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, backed by EU partners, has declared a unilateral truce – a test of Moscow’s sincerity and a bid to maintain Western support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced a bold full, unconditional ceasefire for 30 days starting May 12, in coordination with Ukraine’s Western partners. This move – unprecedented since the all-out war began – is meant to pause hostilities on land, air, and sea for a month, creating a window for diplomacy. Zelenskyy emphasized that Kyiv “and all its allies” stand ready to stop fighting immediately, and indeed “the truce between Ukraine and Russia is set to begin on Monday, May 12”.
He pointedly noted that if the Kremlin refuses to reciprocate the ceasefire, Russia will face new sanctions from the West. In other words, Ukraine’s truce offer comes with a coordinated Western ultimatum attached. Zelenskyy also reaffirmed Ukraine’s readiness to resume negotiations once guns fall silent, saying he’s open to “any format” of talks if Russia upholds a truce. In a personal challenge to Putin, Zelenskyy even declared he “will wait for Vladimir Putin in Turkey on May 15” – signaling his willingness to meet face-to-face. However, Kyiv’s public messaging also carries a note of skepticism born of bitter experience. Ukrainian officials recall that negotiating under active fire failed in 2022, citing episodes like the Bucha massacre that followed Russia’s nominal withdrawal. Thus, Zelenskyy’s ceasefire gambit is both a gesture of good faith and a test of Moscow’s intentions. It allows Ukraine to claim the diplomatic high ground and keep Western support unified, while guarding against a scenario where Russia exploits a pause in fighting.
Overlapping Signals vs. Opposing Conditions
Despite these reciprocal overtures, glaring contradictions remain between Moscow’s and Kyiv’s positions on how to halt the war. Both sides, on the surface, are endorsing the idea of peace talks in Turkey – yet in opposite sequence. Putin pointedly rejected Ukraine’s ceasefire-first approach, “ignoring the proposed 30-day ceasefire” and instead offering immediate talks without prior conditions. He argues negotiations should start right away on May 15, and only then could any new ceasefire be worked out as a product of those talks.
In contrast, Ukraine insists on a ceasefire as the entry ticket to negotiations: as Putin himself acknowledged, “Ukraine is only willing to enter negotiations after a ceasefire is in place”. This sequencing clash – talks to get a ceasefire, vs. ceasefire to get talks – reflects deep mutual distrust. Each side fears giving the other a tactical advantage: Moscow is loath to grant Kyiv a lengthy pause that might allow Ukraine to rearm or fortify positions, while Kyiv refuses to negotiate under fire after past experiences of Russia feigning dialogue while continuing deadly attacks.
Indeed, Putin’s camp has floated additional demands if a truce were to occur, such as that Ukraine halt troop mobilizations and that Western countries freeze arms deliveries during the ceasefire – conditions Kyiv and its allies are unlikely to accept as they would hamstring Ukraine’s defense.
Playing by the rules?
On the positive side, both capitals are now publicly talking about peace talks in the same place and timeframe for the first time in many months. The Turkish venue and the date of May 15 have been embraced by both (with Erdogan’s blessing), which at least creates a shared focal point. But the mismatch in preconditions – and dueling narratives of who violated past truces – underscore that these gestures, while significant, do not yet amount to a breakthrough consensus on how to actually de-escalate. Each side is effectively saying: “We’re ready for peace – it’s the other guy who isn’t, unless they play by our rules.”
Insight EU Analysis, supported by ChatGPT Deep Research